Nigeria

Conflict in northeast Nigeria persists with relative stability due to the slightly reduced capacity of insurgents after months of intensive security force operations. Many displaced households are traveling to homesteads or nearby urban centers to prepare for seasonal land preparation; however, localized attacks continue to limit access to farmlands as well as drive displacement. Markets in accessible areas remain well supplied, though deteriorated household purchasing power and continued poor cash access limit food access. High competition for income-generating opportunities, high prices, and limited remaining food are driving decreased household food access. Consequently, many households are facing the early onset of the lean season and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September. Meanwhile, households in inaccessible areas that have minimal access to livelihoods, limited mobility, and a depleted coping capacity face wide food consumption gaps and are expected to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

Clashes between local militias, banditry, and violence against civilians remain elevated and continue to limit mobility in the northwest and northcentral states, driving poor dry season harvests and restricted market activity in the worst conflict-affected areas. Land preparation for the upcoming main season cultivation remains below average in most areas. Short-distance population displacement following outbreaks of conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and limit coping capacity in Benue, Niger, Kaduna, Katsina, Plateau, Sokoto, and Zamfara states. Frequent attacks by bandits have restricted the flow of food, leading to price spikes for staple foods and the lean season has already begun in conflict-affected areas. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist in conflict-affected areas through September.

Macroeconomic conditions remain poor in Nigeria despite the slight easing of the cash crisis following the extension of the deadline for using old notes, increases in oil production, and favorable crude oil export prices. Despite increased revenue from oil sales, foreign reserves continue to decline due to the high debt burden. Staple food prices across most markets remain significantly higher than average, limiting food access. The average retail price of petrol increased 43 percent year-on-year in March 2023. High fuel prices will drive increased transportation and production costs, as well as high food prices through the lean season.