Afganistán

Seasonal precipitation near the conclusion of the 2022/23 season, from October 1, 2022 – May 20, 2023, is below average across most of the country. Although localized areas of near-average precipitation are observed in central, southern, and eastern parts of the country (Figure 1).

Below-average precipitation, below-average snow water volumes, earlier than normal snow melt in most basins, and below normal soil moisture conditions as of mid-May 2023 have resulted in significant moisture stress in the wheat belt as well as in the rangelands in northern, western, and central parts of the country (Figure 2).

Snow water volumes (SWV) in eastern basins are below average and even close to record minimums during the 2022/23 season. Rapid depletion of snow due to above average temperatures from February onwards led to depleted SWV levels 4-8 weeks earlier than normal in most of the basins except in Bala Murghab Kushk and Hari Rod (Figure 3).

The ECMWF precipitation forecast for May 22 – 29, 2023, indicates slightly above average precipitation in the central, southcentral, and some northeast parts of the country, while there is no tilt towards either above- or below-average precipitation in the rest of the country. During the week May 29 – Jun 5, 2023, a similar pattern exists, with above average precipitation stretching to the northwest. (Figure 4).

Both the NMME  and C3S forecast above average temperatures across the country during June - August 2023 except in some central and southern parts of the country (Figures 5 & 6).

As per the latest NOAA Advisory, the rise of El Niño that is observed in May 2023 is expected to become dominant during October-December 2023 (94% chance). Above average precipitation can be expected for the 2023-24 wet season.