Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The rainy season in Madagascar is nearing an end and has generally concluded with below-normal rainfall in the south and above-normal rainfall in the north. Southern Madagascar received 50 to 25 percent below normal rainfall between October 1, 2019 and March 30, 2020 according to SADC Agromet Update. The rainfall deficit adversely affected agricultural production in the south, particularly on the main agricultural season. Above-normal rainfall, however, was beneficial to crops in all other parts of the country, with the exception of a few northern districts affected by floods. The main rice and pulse harvest started this month in the highlands, an area that received average rainfall, and production is expected to be similar to the five-year average.

Rainfall deficits in the south led to a scarcity of clean water and an increase in water prices, particularly in Androy region. The price of a 20-litre water tin increased by 30 percent in urban areas and by 25 to 50 percent in rural areas of Androy region in March 2020, according to the 16th bulletin on Drought produced by the Madagascar WASH Cluster. For communes served by the pipeline, the price of water stabilized at MGA 120 for each 20-liter water tin. In Atsimo Andrefana region and in Anosy region, it remained stable both in urban and in rural areas.

Findings from a rapid survey done by the Nutrition Cluster in February/March 2020 in four districts of the south and an exhaustive screening in Ampanihy and Betioky, the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM), based on weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) in Ambovombe, Tulear II, and Ampanihy was between 10 and 15 percent. This represents an improvement in Ampanihy compared to the first quarter of 2019 and a deterioration in Tulear II and Ambovombe. In Beloha, Betioky, and Fort-Dauphin the GAM by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was below 10 percent. The GAM (MUAC) recorded was an improvement in Beloha and Betioky, but a deterioration in nutritional status in Amphanihy.

The presence of COVID-19 in Madagascar since the end of March 2020 led the government to set restrictions to limit the spread of the virus. Three cities, Antananarivo, Tamatave, and Fianarantsoa, were locked down. All public transportation within, to, and from the three locked-down cities was banned, all schools were closed, and a daily curfew from 1:00 pm to 6:00 am was set for all other activities.

These restrictions reduced incomes of poor and very poor households both in these cities and some rural areas. A notable urban exodus occurred upon the announcement of the lockdown. Many daily wage laborers, no longer able to work in affected urban cities, chose to return to homes in rural areas surrounding the cities. In Ampanihy, livestock could not be sold at the weekly market, which was limited exclusively to food products, leading to a decline in income among some pastoralists. In Androy region and the southeast, daily wages for agricultural labor have been decreasing as labor supply is outweighing demand with laborers forced to look for local work and movement restrictions limiting migration options.

The Government of Madagascar announced on April 19, that the country would slowly begin lifting restrictions starting on April 27. Since this time, policies restricting public transportation to and from the locked-down cities remain, as does the curfew. However, public transportation within the cities is resuming and schools have re-opened for students who will be taking exit exams this year. The official new case rate has slowed in the past two weeks, though information suggests that the main reason behind the lifting the of restrictions was concern that social unrest would develop, as well as the president’s endorsement of a locally produced herbal drink to combat COVID-19. 

High supply in southern livestock markets has been observed as dependence on markets to food purchases remains high due to the prolonged lean season and below-average cereal production in March-April. Demand for livestock, however, has effectively decreased as the main consumer base, urban populations, cannot access livestock due to COVID-19 movement restrictions. As of mid-April, prices had generally decreased by 10 percent for cattle and 20 percent for small ruminants since December 2019 in Betioky Atsimo district, according to key informants. In Androy region, cattle prices fell slightly by 20 percent for cattle and 10 percent for small ruminants compared to December 2019.

Staple food prices increased in some main cities, including Antananarivo and Manakara, just after the announcement of the existence of COVID-19 cases in Madagascar on March 21. People rushed to the markets to buy two weeks of food stocks to prepare for the lock-down. This led to a sharp increase in demand and price increases because supply did not keep up with some traders hiding their stocks, waiting to take advantage of higher prices. In Tulear I and Ambovombe, demand also increased, though prices did not significantly increase. In Antananarivo, the pressure on prices lasted for one week, hampering purchasing power of poor households who were not prepared to stock food and who continued to buy their food daily. Since early April, food prices in Antananarivo relaxed slightly, though remain elevated, as trucks transporting food supplies from surplus-producing areas could enter the city.

Across the country, staple food prices remained above the five-year average in March 2020. Particularly, local rice prices in Antananarivo were 18 percent above five-year average. However, prices of fresh green vegetables decreased because of their perishability, forcing farmers to sell them quickly before the curfew began. Consequently, the ongoing events have also negatively impacted the income of small suburban vegetable farmers.

In southern Madagascar, most staple foods were available on the markets at the end of March, according to WFP. Dried cassava prices showed a drastic increase (between 100 and 500 percent) compared three months ago due to the extended lean season following the rainfall deficit. Maize prices increased by 15 to 80 percent compared to December 2019, similarly due to a poor maize harvest. Maize prices remained stable in Tsihombe where maize was harvested earlier in December and January when rainfall was still favorable. Local rice prices also increased across the south by 15 to 30 percent, except in Amboasary and Tsihombe. As for imported rice, prices remained stable in Ambovombe and Amboasary as traders still have stocks. Conversely, in Tsihombe, Betioky, and Tulear II, rice prices increased by 10 to 30 percent because of the depreciation of the Malagasy Ariary (MGA) compared to the US Dollar (USD), effectively making prices of imported goods more expensive. Additionally, increased checkpoints at ports designed to ensure safety and sanitation are slowing the importation process of products, particularly imported rice.

Humanitarian food assistance is aiding poor households in meeting their food needs in southern areas. While assistance delivery faced some challenges, specifically higher delivery costs and slower transportation, WFP distributed food to about 240,000 beneficiaries in the 8 districts of the Grand Sud, reaching more than 25 percent of total population in Ambovombe. Through their Fiarova project, CRS also distributed sorghum and oil to nearly half of the population of Tsihombe and to 15 percent of population Beloha. ADRA is implementing a school feeding initiative (SFI) in 103 schools of 7 communes of Ampanihy, targeting 15,000 students. They are distributing one bag of protein rice per 3 students and a supplemental bag of rice per student per week for a home ration, given the severity of the lean season. Cash programs, mainly implemented by WFP and the government through the social safety nets, targeted more than 25 percent of population in Beloha and smaller proportions of the population in other districts.

The Government of Madagascar has taken the lead in responding to the COVID-19 effects on food access in urban centers, targeting poor households in Antananarivo, Tamatave, and Fianaratsoa to assist in meeting food needs during the lockdown. As part of the Social Emergency Plan (SEP), the government distributed a pack called “Vatsy Tsinjo” composed of 5 to 25 kilos of rice, sugar, pulses, cooking oil, fortified flour, salt and soap to around 50,000 vulnerable households in Antananarivo Renivohitra, whose heads of household cannot work because of the lockdown.  Some households also received a cash transfer of MGA 100,000 to cover two weeks of needs. Meanwhile, 15,000 households in Toamasina and 35,000 households in Fianarantsoa also received the same ration of “Vatsy Tsinjo” in mid-April. The “Tsena mora”, a market where poor households can buy three kilograms of rice and one half-liter of cooking oil three times a week at half price, which already existed last year across the country, were also functional in five regions during the first few weeks of the lockdown.