Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Security situation and population movements: The security situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to be marked by an acute crisis affecting a large part of the country, which is manifesting itself in different ways in various areas. In some areas, improvements in the security situation have contributed to return movements, particularly in the provinces of Kasaï, Sud-Kivu, Tanganyika and Maniema. According to the IOM, about 70 percent of displaced persons were recorded as returnees in 2018. This may be due to the surrender of some armed groups, encouraged by the calmer situation post-election. However, the far north of Nord-Kivu province is currently experiencing renewed violence, which is continuing to displace thousands of people.

Growing season: Throughout the eastern region of the DRC, the growing season in both the north and south was helped by regular rain, which enabled a normal growing season with average harvests throughout the region, or even above average in some places. These included Haut-Katanga, where farmers felt that production was better than the previous season.

Early lean season: As the season B harvest was lower than average in most areas to the northeast of the country, due to the low area planted and less productive agroclimatic conditions in places, household stocks will not exceed two months’ consumption on average. As a result, an early lean season can be expected. This could lead to poor households employing increasingly harsh survival strategies.

Food availability and market situation: Low production in the previous growing season and increased deterioration in transport infrastructure are resulting in limited food availability on local markets, especially during this rainy period of the year. Although there is improved production in the current growing season A, it remains below normal and will not have a significant effect on consumer markets. Imports from neighboring countries will be crucial to maintaining stable prices until the next harvest.

According to the April 2019 report from the DRC’s Center for the Analysis of Development Indicators (CAID), six out of ten products monitored on various markets in the country experienced price stability (palm oil, maize flour, imported rice, salt, sugar and goat meat); four other products recorded price increases (vegetable oil: +14 percent; cassava flour: +13 percent; locally produced rice: +12 percent; beans: 9+ percent). The exchange rate remained unchanged in April compared to March.

Ebola situation: Repeated attacks on Ebola treatment centers appear to be encouraging the spread of the disease in the community. While the situation had been under control at the end of the first quarter of this year, an increase in the fatality rate was observed in April. If this situation continues, it could have negative effects on food security in this area of once-surplus agricultural production. This is because, due to the situation, contacts under observation are dependent on humanitarian assistance, with virtually no access to their livelihoods.

Humanitarian assistance: This is continuing in affected areas, including Kasaï, Kasaï-Oriental and Tanganyika. The presence of those most recently deported from Angola to Kasaï and the border areas remains a concern, given the current low level of assistance that does not cover all the needs expressed for this area of returnees. The World Food Programme (WFP) is currently assisting 32,000 deportees in Kwango and 93,000 in Kasaï, who have received a second distribution of assistance.