Recession harvest expected to drive food security improvement as lean season nears end

The peak of the lean season is ongoing in much of Angola, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected among populations of highest concern in the southwest of the country. Nationally, food security is improving slightly with the harvest of horticulture crops from the recession (nacas) season. Harvesting has started in north and central provinces, improving food availability among poor households who rely on this season for over a quarter of their food supply. The harvest is also increasing supply in the main markets in these provinces. However, recession season crops are largely not anticipated in the southwest and improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is only likely in this area once the cereal harvest is available around June/July.

Between October and mid-January, the first half of the main rainy season, northern and central areas of the country have received between 400 and 500 mm of rainfall, while southern areas have received around 25 to 250 mm of rainfall. While this is lower than average in most areas, the deficits are relatively small, on the order of 5-15 percent below normal. In southwestern areas, rainfall totals are above the same time last year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the area planted is expected to be 30 percent higher than the 2021/2022 agricultural season, though this will be driven by higher planting in northern and central areas while southern areas will likely release somewhat lower than normal production due to the lingering impact of past droughts.

Over the past month, inflation declined slightly from 15 percent to 14 percent, and the exchange rate declined slightly from 504 AOA/USD to 503 AOA/USD. In 2022, there was a strong deceleration in the inflation level, with the inflation rate at the end of the year reaching the lowest values of the last five years: 14 percent against 27 percent at the end of 2021. This is driven by the appreciation of the national currency and the increase and regularity in the supply of food through the Strategic Food Reserve (REA).

Food inflation has also decreased, increasing 11 percent year-on-year relative to 13 percent last month. Though declining, food inflation is still 23 percent above average and negatively affecting poor households’ purchasing power. A decline in livestock prices compared to average has also contributed to lower livestock-to-cereal terms of trade. Key informant information suggests that some areas of the southwest continue to see increases in admissions for therapeutic feeding relative to normal, which may indicate continued impact of below-average food access.