Atypically high prices restrict food access for poor, market-dependant households

Eastern Semi-Arid Agro-Pastoral Zone

Current Situation

Seasonal ‘B’ harvests and current food stock levels

Endowed with fertile young soils, this livelihood zone is especially vulnerable to poor rainfall performance. As a result, an early end to the 2013 long rainy season (March to May) had a more severe impact on the season ‘B’ harvest compared to other areas of the country. In particular, the harvest of maize - an important crop for the zone - was affected with a decline in production estimated at 15 percent compared to average. Household food stocks in this zone depleted in August, one month earlier than normal.

Labor incomes

Planting activities for agricultural season ‘A’ are ongoing, providing labor opportunities to poor households at relatively normal wages, ranging from 700 and 1,000 RWF per day. However, the October dry spell disrupted planting activities in localized areas, reducing agricultural labor demand slightly. The Land Husbandry, Water Harvesting and Hillside irrigation (LWH) project is also a major employer in this zone, with three sites in Kayonza district and two sites in Gatsibo district. Each site employs approximately 3,000 people per day for terracing activities. Wages for labor work at these sites are similar to agricultural wages in the zone.

Livestock income

Livestock ownership is common in this zone, with poor households generally owning a few goats and/or poultry. With the onset of the short rains, pasture availability has seasonally improved and livestock are in good physical condition. In addition, livestock prices are stable but above last year’s levels, generating favorable incomes for agropastoralists.  Milk production levels and prices are seasonally normal.

Staple food prices

Increased market demand and below-average market supply, due to the poor season ‘B’ harvest, caused significant price increases for staple foods. This has limited food access for poor households making market purchases. For example at Nyakarambi market, September bean prices were 450 RWF/kg, 34 percent higher than the previous month’s levels and 61 percent above September 2012’s levels (Figure 4). Prices for other key commodities, such as maize and cooking banana were also five and 44 percent, respectively, above last year’s levels.

Refugees and returnees

Of the estimated 7,324 Rwandans who were expelled from Tanzania in August 2013, almost all of them settled in this zone with approximately 43 percent living in the Kiyanzi temporary camp in Nyamugali sector. Efforts are being made to help these returnees integrate into local communities but until they rebuild their livelihoods, they will likely have difficulties meeting basic food needs. Those residing in camps will also rely heavily on food rations from the World Food Programme.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for October 2013 through March 2014 for the Eastern Semi-Arid Agro-Pastoral zone is based on the following zone-level assumptions:

• Returnees: Given ongoing tensions between the governments of Rwanda and Tanzania, additional Rwandan returnees will cross the border into Rwanda and settle in temporary camps located within this livelihood zone. 
• Staple food prices: Prices are expected to increase steeply throughout the lean season (October to December) before then declining gradually in January due to fresh harvest. However, prices will remain above last year’s levels.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Due to an increased vulnerability to food security-related shocks, last season’s below-average crop production, as well as atypically high food prices, will cause poor households in this zone to have difficulties accessing food during the October to December lean season. During this time period, households will employ atypical coping strategies, such as selling additional chickens, rabbits, goats, and sheep, and consuming less preferred food items, such as sorghum and sweet potatoes. During this time period, households are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity.

From January to March, poor households will rely mostly on their own season ‘A’ production. In addition, food prices will decline and normal incomes from casual labor, small animal sales, and crop sales will enable households to supplement their own production with market purchases. Between January and March, poor households in this zone will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

East Congo-Nile Highland Farming Zone and West Congo-Nile Crest Tea Zone

Current Situation

These mountainous livelihood zones are prone to soil erosion, landslides, and flooding during the short and long rainy seasons. During agricultural season ‘B’, several rainfall anomalies negatively impacted crop production: 1) a late onset of the rains in some localities, 2) heavy and above-average rainfall levels in April that caused crop damages, and 3) an early end to the season, approximately one month earlier than normal. As a result, total season ‘B’ crop production was estimated to be approximately 15 to 20 percent below average.

Due to this poor crop production, most poor households depleted their food stocks in August, approximately one month earlier than normal. Currently, households are meeting their food needs through a combination of food purchases and the consumption of perennial crops, such as cassava. Harvesting activities for season ‘C’ legumes and vegetables in marshland areas is also ongoing, although this harvest is not large enough to replenish households’ depleted stocks.

The main income source for poor households is labor sales, including assisting with planting activities on the farms of the better-off, working on local tea plantations, doing road construction under the Vision 2020 Umurenge Program, and doing terracing activities with the Land Husbandry, Water Harvesting and Hillside irrigation (LWH) project. Poor households report that current wages are relatively normal and similar to last year’s levels. Livestock body conditions are seasonally good due to the effects of the short rains on pastoral resources, and milk and animal prices are at normal levels.

Due to below-average market supply, food prices did not decline during the harvest and post harvest period for agricultural season ‘B’, but instead were stable. In addition, between August and September, food prices increased sharply, with the price of beans rising 20 percent. Bean prices also rose 40 percent compared to last year’s levels. These atypically high prices are limiting food access for poor households who are market dependant at this time.

Both of these zones have a relatively large refugee population from the DRC (around 67,000 refugees in total). Of this refugee population, approximately 14,000 are relatively new, having settled in the area during the past year. Refugees are residing in camps and are entirely reliant on food and nonfood assistance from WFP and other humanitarian partners. The presence of these refugees has had little to no impact on local markets.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for October 2013 through March 2014 for the East Congo-Nile Highland Farming Zone and West Congo-Nile Crest Tea Zone is based on the following zone-level assumptions:

• Season ‘A’ harvest: Forty seven tons of Irish potato seeds that were distributed by the Ministry of Agriculture had to be exchanged due to poor quality, causing planting delays in localized areas. As a result, season ‘A’ harvests in December/January 2014 will be delayed and slightly below-average.
• Cash crops: Production of coffee and tea does not vary seasonally and will therefore remain at relatively stable levels throughout the scenario period. Production of these crops will provide a steady source of labor opportunities for poor households.
• Trade: Cross border trade will behave normally between Rwanda, Burundi, and the DRC. This zone trades mainly with the Southern part of Kivu (Bukavu border).
• Prices: Prices for staple foods, including beans, will continue to increase at a faster rate than normal across most markets. Prices for imported rice, wheat, and sugar from Kenya and Uganda will decline due to the inauguration of a single customs window in October/November 2013 that will minimize roadblocks and other non-tariff barriers to trade.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Between October and December, households in these zones will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. Due to below-average season 'B' harvests, many households depleted their household food stocks one month early than normal and will dependant on market purchases until the start of the next harvests in December/January. In addition, rising food prices and stable labor wages in these two zones have caused household purchasing power to decline, resulting in many households having difficulties accessing food through market purchases. Poor households will attempt to offset the impacts of their below-average food stocks and high food prices by selling additional small animals (ex. chickens, rabbits, goats, and sheep) and working more days of casual labor. They will also employ consumption-based coping strategies including reducing food intake and switching to less preferred foods (ex. cassava).  

Once the harvests start in December/January, households will rely on their own crop production, including beans, banana plantains, peas, sweet potatoes, and fresh and dry cassava to meet both essential food and nonfood needs without engaging in any atypical coping strategies. Therefore between January and March, households will face minimal to no food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).