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Conflict is a significant driver of acute food insecurity. Due to the complex and dynamic nature of conflict, FEWS NET uses a standardized approach to gather information, develop assumptions, and communicate forecasts of conflict as they relate to acute food insecurity.

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About Conflict

Conflicts are unique by nature, and descriptions of ongoing conflicts can vary dramatically across the countries and regions that FEWS NET operates in. To standardize its conflict assumption process, FEWS NET analysts take a singular approach to analyzing current conflict intensity, which involves using common language to make projections about conflict for use in food security analysis.

FEWS NET's current conflict intensity analysis includes a breakdown of a conflict in a particular geography that follows consistent standards and includes common terminology. Each current conflict intensity analysis includes descriptions of associated intensity levels and assessments of the means of the conflict and related consequences (i.e., casualties, internally displaced people/refugees, and destruction). This analysis process also provides country offices with an opportunity to respond with additional data (i.e., anecdotal information on destruction, movements of people, etc.).

At the end of a current conflict intensity analysis, FEWS NET provides an estimated conflict projection, which includes a short narrative on how a conflict is expected to progress across the analysis period. 

Conflict Data and Information

FEWS NET's conflict and security team uses a variety of resources, including data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), to produce conflict assumptions for use in integrated food security analysis. Because there is a possibility of reporting bias in higher risk or rapidly evolving conflicts, FEWS NET relies on ACLED data to fill in gaps and analyze conflicts in certain regions that may have been overlooked by other sources. ACLED provides FEWS NET analysts with rich, consistent, and reliable data for use in regular and special reporting.

ACLED Conflict Data

Source: ACLED


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