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This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for maize grain in the east African countries of Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi. The outlook period follows the 2017/18 marketing year (MY), spanning from July 2017 to June 2018 and covering two main harvests—the 2017 June-to-August harvest and the 2017/2018 October-to-February harvest. While the June-to-August harvest data estimates are more reliable, the October-to-February harvests are projected and may be updated as data becomes available.
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Preliminary production estimates suggest that, at the regional level, aggregate maize production for MY 2017/18 is expected to recover and be slightly higher than the 2016/2017 period and similar to five-year average levels. Carryover stocks were low following last year’s poor harvest. The region is nevertheless expected to maintain a maize surplus, but at below average levels. Imports from regional and international markets are expected to help fill domestic supply gaps.
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Ethiopia, the leading maize producer in the region, is expected to have an average surplus, while Tanzania and Uganda, also maize surplus-producing countries, are estimated to have below to well below-average exportable maize surpluses through July 2018. An export ban on maize grain flows from Tanzania may continue to restrict maize from reaching the maize deficit countries of Kenya, Burundi, and Rwanda where deficits are projected to be significantly above average. South Sudan and Somalia are projected to maintain dependence on imports and food assistance for maize as well as other staple foods in 2017/18.
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Nominal and export parity maize prices are expected to remain above-average in all countries through the end of 2017.
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Given this projected supply situation, monitoring the ongoing regional trade policies (including export restrictions in Uganda and Tanzania), international import levels, and the performance of upcoming harvests will be essential in 2018.