Monitor Estacional

Drought intensifies in southern and central Somalia due to delayed, poor deyr rainfall

3 Noviembre 2021

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

The onset of the deyr rains has yet to begin in most of southern and central Somalia, marking a delay of at least 15-30 days depending on the area. According to CHIRPS remote-sensing data, most of the country received less than 10 millimeters (mm) of rainfall during the October 21-31 period. Only a few localized areas in southern and central Somalia received 10-25 mm of rainfall, including parts of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Galgaduud regions (Figure 1). Compared to the long-term average, rainfall generally performed 11-25 mm below average in southern and central Somalia, though parts of the south experienced larger deficits of 25-50 mm (Figure 2). Although CHIRPS data indicates rainfall in the north was climatologically average, ground information suggests there is a rainfall deficit. As of November 3, SWALIM river station gauge data indicate the Shabelle River has risen above the long-term average at most monitoring points, but the Juba River generally remains below average. Regardless, river levels at all monitoring points are significantly below the moderate and high flood risk stage.

In the northwest, little to no rainfall occurred across most of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Sanaag, and Sool regions during October 21-31. However, localized areas in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Zaylac district in Awdal received more substantial, light to moderate rainfall. In general, rangeland conditions range from average to above average due to rainfall received earlier in the year. However, localized pastoral areas of Sool and Sanaag regions have below-average pasture and water availability, mainly due to the atypical influx of livestock from rain-deficit regions of Bari and Nugaal in search of these resources. There are reports confirming the presence of adult desert locusts in localized areas of West Golis Pastoral and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones of Togdheer region, with minimal impact on rangeland to date.   

In the northeast, little to no rainfall was reported across most areas during the October 21-31 period. The exceptions include Coastal Deeh Pastoral areas of Bandarbeyla and Iskushuban districts in Bari region and Northern Inland Pastoral areas of Nugaal region, which received light to moderate rainfall. Poor October rainfall has led to deterioration in rangeland conditions, which are currently below average in most livelihood zones. While normal internal livestock migration is ongoing within the northeast, there are reports that pasture and water shortages are driving atypical livestock out-migration from Addun Pastoral and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Nugaal to pastoral areas of Bari, Sanaag, and Sool. 

In central regions, most livelihood zones in Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions experienced dry conditions during the October 21-31 period. Only Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, Cowpea Agropastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones received localized, light to moderate rainfall with limited to marginal impact on rangeland conditions. Pasture, browse, and water availability is significantly below average, leading to declining livestock body conditions, low productivity, and decreasing sale value in most areas.  

In the south, most regions received little to no rainfall during the October 21-31 period. Most livelihood zones in Gedo and Lower and Middle Juba received only localized, light showers with limited impact on rangelands and crop production. Meanwhile, pastoral and cropping areas in Hiraan, Bakool, Bay, and Lower and Middle Shabelle regions received localized, light to moderate rainfall with marginal to moderate impact on rangelands and crop production. Rain gauge stations recorded 62.5 mm in Baidoa (Bay), 30 mm in Hudur (Bakool), 20 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), 16 mm in Buloburte (Hiraan), 8 mm in Afgoye (Lower Shabelle), and 2 mm in Jamaame (Lower Juba). Significant internal livestock migration in search of better pasture and water is ongoing across the south, as well as atypical livestock out-migration from Gedo to areas in Ethiopia and atypical livestock in-migration from northeastern Kenya to Lower and Middle Juba. Currently, there is a very low risk of flooding at all SWALIM river water level monitoring areas. However, there are reports that farmers have created localized, intentional river breakages in parts of Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle in order to flood their fields for the cultivation of cereals and other crops.

According to the satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period of October 21-31, vegetation conditions in most of southern and central Somalia and in localized areas of northern Somalia (e.g., Nugaal region) are significantly below normal (Figure 3). However, most of the north exhibits normal to above-normal vegetation conditions. The seven-day weather forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center through November 10 indicates no rainfall is likely to occur across most of Somalia during the November 4-10 period (Figure 4). With the forecast of suppressed rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period, the risk of flooding along the Shabelle and Juba rivers remains low.

For more rain gauge data, please contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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