Monitor Estacional

Average to above-average rainfall brings relief after weeks of poor rainfall performance

28 Mayo 2019

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.
Socios: 
USGS

In the May 11-20 period, Gu rainfall performance improved across many areas of Somalia with moderate to heavy rainfall amounts. According to RFE2 satellite-derived estimates (RFE2) and ground information, most of the country received 10-75 millimeters (mm) of rainfall (Figure 1). However, northern and central coastal areas, large parts of Gedo, and several other pockets in the South received less than 10 mm. Conversely, a large area encompassing parts of Bakool, Hiiran, and Galgaduud regions received 75-150 mm of rainfall. RFE2 satellite-derived data depict rainfall as climatologically average or slightly above the short-term mean (STM) across most of Somalia, with a higher surplus of 25-150 mm accumulating in parts of Juba, Shabelle, Bakool, Hiiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug (Figure2). Both the Juba and Shabelle river water levels continued to rise as a result of precipitation over the river catchments in the Ethiopian highlands, but levels remain below the long-term average, keeping flood risk low.   

Situation

In the Northwest, moderate to heavy rainfall fell in most livelihood zones in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions during the May 11-20 period. The rains resulted in flash floods in parts of Guban Pastoral livelihood zone and in Hargeisa district. In Togdheer, localized moderate to light rains were reported across the region, causing some flash floods in agropastoral areas of Odweyne and Burao districts. Burao rain gauge station recorded 166 mm of rainfall within a 4-day period. In Sanaag, average rainfall amounts fell in most areas of Lasqoray and Badhan districts while Erigabo and Elafweyn districts received localized below-average to average rainfall. In Sool, moderate rainfall with average distribution fell across most of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone and in Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zone of Lasanood; however, the rest of NIP received little to no rainfall, especially in Taleh and Huddun districts.

In the Northeast, rainfall amounts were varied during the May 10-20 period. In Bari, localized moderate rainfall was received in NIP livelihood zone of Bossaso and Qardho districts and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Alula and Qandala districts. In Nugaal and northern Mudug, localized moderate to heavy rains were reported in Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones. However, the remaining areas of NIP (Iskshuban, Bandarbeyla, Eyl, Dangorayo), East Golis Pastoral (Bossaso and Iskushuban), and Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zones received little to no rainfall.

In central regions, rainfall was relatively better compared to previous 10-day reporting periods since the start of the Gu. Moderate to heavy rainfall was reported in highly localized areas across Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions during May 10-20 period. However, coastal areas across both regions received little to no rainfall. Although the rains were highly localized, they brought significant relief to pastoral areas by enhancing access to pasture, which has improved livestock body conditions and provided migration options from rain-deficit areas.

In the South, rainfall performance was quite varied during the May 10-20 period. Localized moderate to heavy rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones of Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, Bay, and Bakool regions. In contrast, precipitation was poor and below average in large parts of Lower Shabelle, most of Middle Juba and Gedo, Adan Yabal district of Middle Shabelle, and Jalalaqsi district of Hiiraan, especially in riverine and rainfed (maize) agropastoral areas. Rain gauge stations recorded 137.5 mm in Beledweyne (Hiiraan), 96 mm in Hudur (Bakool), 86 mm in Baidoa (Baidoa), 21 mm in Dinsor (Bay), 8 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), and 6.5 mm in Janale (Lower Shabelle). River water levels in the Juba and Shabelle rivers rose during this period, but still remain below-average.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) for May 11-20 shows general improvement across the country, though vegetation deficits are still visible in most areas (Figure 3). According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day forecast, rainfall amounts ranging from 20 mm to 100 mm are forecast across the South and in parts of the Northwest in the May 23-29 period. However, the rest of the country will likely receive little to no rainfall, especially in central and northeastern regions (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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