Monitor Estacional

Most of Somalia continues to receive little or no rainfall, signaling an early end of the 2021 gu season

14 Junio 2021

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Following suppressed rainfall in May, field reports indicate that most of Somalia received little or no rainfall during the June 1-10 period. Preliminary CHIRPS remote sensing data corroborates the absence of rain across most of the country, apart from localized areas in the southern regions of Bay, Shabelle and Juba, which received 5-25 millimeters (mm) of rain (Figure 1). Compared to the long-term average (1981-2018), the dry period is indicative of average climatology; however, ground observations indicate drier-than-normal conditions (Figure 2). According to the most recent FAO SWALIM river station gauge data, water levels at key monitoring points along the Shabelle River are average to slightly above average, while river water levels along the Juba River are below average. Regardless, water levels at all monitoring points are significantly below the flood risk threshold due to recent poor rainfall over both Somalia’s riverine areas and the upstream river catchments in the Ethiopian highlands. The seven-day forecast ending June 20 signals further rainfall suppression across the country, eliminating the risk of flooding in the areas along the Juba and Shabelle rivers.

In the Northeast, no rainfall was reported across all livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions during the June 1-10 period. In Bari region, the weather is characterized by strong winds and warm temperatures across all pastoral areas. Similar patterns of dryness and extreme temperatures are observed in the pastoral areas of Nugaal and northern Mudug regions. Overall, the Northeast has received the least amount of rainfall during the 2021 gu compared to other areas of the country. Coupled with extreme temperatures that have elevated the amount of evapotranspiration, pasture, and water resources are decreasing significantly. The most affected areas are the entire Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone and large portions of Northern Inland Pastoral and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones.

In the central regions, little to no rainfall was reported across most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of southern Mudug and Galgaduud regions during the June 1-10 period. Conditions during this period were even drier than late May, when at least localized areas received light showers. As a result, rangeland conditions continue to deteriorate in rainfall-deficit areas, especially in Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone, parts of eastern Addun Pastoral livelihood zone, and most of Cowpea Agropastoral livelihood zone.

In the South, most livelihood zones in Hiiraan, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Middle Juba, Gedo, and Bay regions received little or no rainfall during the June 1-10 period. According to field reports, only very localized agropastoral and pastoral areas of Bay, Hiiraan, Lower Juba, and Lower and Middle Shabelle regions received light rainfall. As confirmed by CHIRPS satellite imagery, light rain in these areas ranged from 5 to 25 mm. Rain gauge stations in most monitoring areas recorded no rainfall; however, stations in Dinsoor (Bay), Jamaame (Lower Juba), and Qansahdhere (Bay) recorded 12.4 mm, 5.5 mm, and 3.4 mm of rainfall, respectively. Due to the long dry spell in most of the South between mid-May and early June, continued crop moisture stress is reported in most crop-producing areas, which is likely to result in a poor gu harvest. In addition, prolonged rainfall suppression is expected to result in the deterioration of rangeland conditions in many regions. In riverine areas, river water levels continue to recede significantly, affecting irrigation activities. Given a predicted absence of rainfall across the country and in the Ethiopian highlands through the end of June, the probability of river flooding is extremely low.

According to the satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period of June 1-10, favorable vegetation conditions are present in most of the Northwest and in localized areas of central and southern Somalia, mainly due to rainfall that occurred earlier in the season. However, negative anomalies are widespread in the South and in the eastern part of central and northeastern Somalia, which reflects poor seasonal rainfall performance (Figure 3). The seven-day weather forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center through June 20 indicates extended dry conditions across Somalia, which is indicative of the end of the gu season. The end of season increases the likelihood of large gu crop losses in the South and atypical deterioration in pasture and water availability in southern, central, and northeastern Somalia (Figure 4). With a forecast of low rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period, further decline in the water levels of the Shabelle and Juba rivers is likely.

For more rain gauge data, please contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visitwww.faoswalim.org.

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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