Monitor Estacional

Cumulative April-June Gu 2019 rainfall predominantly below average

15 Julio 2019

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.
Socios: 
USGS

The establishment of the April-June 2019 Gu rains was delayed by two-three weeks across most of Somalia. Although some localized precipitation was reported in some parts of the South and Northwest in April, most of the country did not begin to receive rainfall until early to mid-May. Although moderate to heavy rainfall from mid-May to early June in northern regions and in large parts of central regions resulted in generally near-average cumulative rainfall in these areas, rainfall remained largely below average across most of the South. Little to no rainfall was reported from mid- to late June. According to CHIRPS satellite data and supported by ground information, most of the Northwest and South and parts of central Somalia received 100-300 millimeters of cumulative rainfall (Figure 1). In the Northeast, the coastal Northwest, and much of central Somalia, cumulative rainfall was 25-100 mm. Compared to the long-term mean, rainfall performance was predominantly below average. Rainfall deficits of 10-50 mm are present in the northwest, northeast, and parts of central regions, while 25-100 mm deficits are observed in large parts of the South (Figure 2). However, large parts of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions and a few pockets in central and southern regions recorded a surplus of 10-50 mm.

Situation

In the Northwest, the full establishment of the Gu was delayed across most of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions, though light to moderate rains fell in localized areas in late April. In the last week of April and first week of May, little to no rainfall was received with few exceptions. From mid-May to early June, however, widespread moderate to heavy rains fell across most livelihood zones, which significantly improved rangeland resource availability and livestock body conditions. No precipitation was reported in the remainder of June. Overall, Gu seasonal rainfall performance was mixed, ranging from below average in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed to above average in Togdheer and western Sool and Sanaag.

In the Northeast, the onset of the Gu was significantly delayed across all livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and Mudug regions with no precipitation observed throughout April and through the first 10 days of May. The first rains occurred in mid-May with localized light to moderate rainfall reported in parts of Northern Inland Pastoral and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Bari and moderate to heavy rainfall reported in localized areas of Hawd Pastoral and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones of Nugaal and Mudug. Moderate to heavy rains continued through early June, then subsided into dry conditions. Overall, Gu seasonal rainfall performance is considered below average.

In central regions, no precipitation was reported across Galgaduud and southern Mudug throughout April, signaling a significant delay in the start of the season. Although moderate to heavy rainfall fell in eastern areas in early May, western areas remained dry. Moderate to heavy rains fell across both regions from mid- to late-May but were highly localized at some points. By June, the rains had largely subsided. Gu seasonal rainfall performance is categorized as below average.    

In the South, the Gu rains were delayed until late April when light to moderate rainfall fell in most regions and above average rainfall fell in large parts of Juba and Gedo. In May, rainfall ranged from light to moderate to heavy, with the most amount of rainfall received in mid-May. Although light to moderate rains were reported in early June, the rains subsided completely by mid-June. Cumulative rainfall was highest in Middle and Lower Juba and lowest in Middle and Lower Shabelle. The Juba and Shabelle river water levels remained largely below average levels despite some fluctuation, and little to no flooding was reported across riverine areas. Overall, Gu seasonal performance was largely poor to below average.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the first 10 days of July shows favorable vegetation conditions in the North while negative anomalies are observed in central and southern regions (Figure 3). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center seven-day rainfall forecast ending July 21st suggests dry conditions across most of the country, signaling the end of the Gu season. However, localized areas in the Juba and Shabelle basins and parts of the Northwest are expected to receive rainfall amounts of up to 30 mm (Figure 4). It is typical that these areas receive some Hagaa rainfall from July to September.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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