Monitor Estacional

Despite improved rainfall in the South, most of Somalia remained dry through the end of November

6 Diciembre 2021

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Following failure of the deyr seasons across most areas of Somalia, improved rainfall conditions were observed in much of the southern regions during the November 21-30 period. The remote-sensing data (CHIRPS), supported by ground information confirmed light to moderate rainfall of up to 25-75 millimeters (mm) across most of the South while the rest of the country including central and northern regions received little or no rainfall (Figure 1). According to the CHIRPS remote-sensing data dry conditions at this time of year in the southern, central, northern regions was climatologically average. However, the end-of-November precipitations in Juba and parts of Gedo, Bay, and Shabelle regions were 10-50 mm above the long-term mean (Figure 2). According to SWALIM’s river station gauge data on December 5, most river level monitoring stations on Shabelle regions are below the long-term mean although still capable to support irrigation activities. Conversely, water levels in the upper stream areas of the Juba River show an increase either at the long-term mean level or slightly higher. Due to the forecast of little to no rainfall situation over the Ethiopian highland areas over the coming week, the risk of flooding in southern regions remains low.


In the northwest, there was little to no rainfall across most agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions during the November 21-30 period. However, a short span of localized light showers were reported in Hargeisa and Gabiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, Borama district in Awdal, part of West Golis livelihood zone of Sanaag, and a limited area of Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zone. While pasture and water availability range from near to above average in many areas of the zone, conditions are relatively below average to poor in large parts of Hawd Pastoral and NIP livelihood zones in Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions due to recent, below average rainfall and significant livestock in-migration from northeastern pastoral areas. Early water trucking is already reported to be ongoing in large parts of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Togdheer region while water sources are drying up in parts of Sool region.

In the northeast, most pastoral livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions experienced dry conditions during the November 21-30 period. However, localized light to moderate showers were reported in coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal as well as in a few pockets of East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Alula and Qandala districts in Bari region. Overall, rangeland conditions are below average in Bari while below average to poor across most of Nugaal and northern Mudug. Significant livestock outmigration from Hawd, NIP, and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones of Nugaal and Mudug to relatively better areas of Bari, Sool, and Sanaag were already reported. Inadequate pasture and water resources continue to negatively affect livestock body conditions, milk production, reproduction, and value. In central regions, most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of Galgaduud and southern Mudug continued to experience atypically dry conditions during the November 21-30 period. Exceptions are localized areas of Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone of Elder and Harardhere districts and adjacent Addun Pastoral areas, which received localized light to moderate showers. Although these rains brought some relief in terms of access to water, rangeland conditions in most livelihood zones remain significantly below average. These trends are significantly affecting people’s ability to earn income and purchase food.

In the south, improved rainfall conditions were reported across most regions during the November 21-30 period. Moderate to heavy rainfall with fair distribution was reported across Middle and Lower Juba regions and most of Bay, Middle and Lower Shabelle, and southern Gedo regions. The rest of the south – including most of Bakool, Hiiraan, and northern Gedo, received relatively less rainfall. Rain gauge stations recorded 65 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), 64 mm in Janale/Marka (Lower Shabelle), 32 mm in Baidoa (Bay), 5.5 mm in Jamaame (Lower Juba), 4 mm in Beledweyne (Hiiraan), and 4 mm in Hudur (Bakool). The rains reported during this period have had a positive effect on rangeland conditions but have had limited impact on deyr crops. Most crops are unlikely to recover due to dry conditions and moisture stress, though the late November rains supported standing crops in localized areas of Bay and the Shabelle regions. The water level along the Shabelle River generally remains below the long-term mean, while the Juba River shows mixed trends with average to slightly above average levels upstream and below average downstream.

According to the satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period of November 21-30, vegetation conditions in many southern and central Somalia and in parts of northeastern Somalia continued to be significantly below median levels (Figure 3) due to the failure of the deyr rains and below average conditions in past seasons, and atypical livestock in-migration from rain-deficit areas. Conversely, vegetation conditions remain near to above-median levels in parts of the north and in localized areas of south-central Somalia due to the impact of recent rains. The seven-day weather forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center through December 10 indicates that no precipitation is likely across most regions and livelihoods of Somalia (Figure 4). Little to no rainfall forecast over the Ethiopian highlands over the coming week will likely lead to reduced water flow into the Juba and Shabelle regions.

For more rain gauge data, please contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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