Monitor Estacional

Dry conditions prevailed in most parts of Somalia

14 Diciembre 2015

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.
Socios: 
USGS

Summary

Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2). 

Situation

Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed received localized, light to moderate rains between December 1 and 10. Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool Regions remained dry. Below-average seasonal rainfall in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone has resulted in poor pasture and water conditions and atypically high livestock migration.

In the Northeast, rains have subsided between December 1 and 10. Due to poor rainfall throughout the season in most parts of Bari, Nugaal, and North Mudug, rangeland conditions have further deteriorated and water and pasture access are well below average, negatively impacting livestock body conditions and production. The Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari, Nugaal, and Sanaag Regions has been the most affected.

In the central regions, no rainfall has been reported in any rural livelihood zones. However, due to average and above-average rains in October and November, pasture and water conditions remain good across the livelihood zones of the central regions.

In the South, rainfall performance varied across regions from December 1 to 10. Dry conditions have been reported in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool and most parts of Lower Shabelle. Light showers fell in most parts of Gedo and Bay Regions. Middle and Lower Juba Regions received the highest amounts of rainfall, with moderate distribution in most areas. However, the remaining areas of the South, including Lower Shabelle, Bakool, and Hiiraan Regions, received little or no rainfall. Due to substantial amounts of rainfall received in October and November, standing crops continue to develop well and rangeland resources are ample and accessible.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels are average throughout most of the country and above the 2001-to-2010 mean in most southern and central regions. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in Awdal, Bari, and Sanaag Regions in the North, and localized areas in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo Regions in the South. The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates likely rainfall amounts of 20-30 mm from December 14 to 20 in most southern and central regions and along the Indian Ocean coast. Most of the northern regions are likely to remain dry during the forecast period (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 20, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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