Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Season 2017 B (February-May) rainfall was near-average and relatively well-distributed, except in some localized areas of Western Province and Bugesera District. Fortunately, the rains were more sustained and favorable to crops at the end of the season across most areas. As a result, crop production is likely to be higher than 2017 A, especially in Eastern Province, which is the country’s food basket. With the crop production outlook being favorable in Tanzania, the high prices of staple foods that constrained food access in Rwanda over the last year and were the main driver of food insecurity should fall further through January 2018, except with seasonal price rises during the lean season (October to December).

Against the backdrop of good national food availability and improved access resulting from the Season B harvest, most poor households living in areas that experienced rainfall shortfalls and a premature end of season, particularly in Bugesera and Rusizi districts, are still expected to meet their basic food and non-food needs through January 2018 and face None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. However, there are expectations that some worst-affected households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In May, there were some indications that portions of Kirehe District could experience below-average production, but key informants indicate that the harvest appears to be favorable.

Two villages of Rweru sector in Bugesera District are currently experiencing the poorest Season B crop production; however, a continuous supply of crops, such as cassava and bananas, are helping with household food availability. In addition, poor households in these areas are engaging in alternative income-earning opportunities, such as road building and house construction, which is maintaining them in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. Similarly, alternative typical livelihood strategies in Rusizi District, such as labor opportunities in nearby tea, coffee, and rice plantations, or petty trade on the Rwanda-DRC border, are expected to allow a significant number of poor households in the sectors most affected to cover their basic food and non-food needs and be in None (IPC Phase 1) through January 2018. Across the country, the production of Season C crops (sweet potatoes, beans, and vegetables) is also expected to bolster food reserves at the start of lean season in September.

The September to December Season A rainy season is forecast to be below average, which likely means that agricultural labor opportunities and production prospects could be lower for the Season A harvest in some areas; eastern drought-prone areas may be particularly susceptible. However, even if it is below average, the harvest, expected to begin in December 2017, will replenish food stocks and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist across the country through January 2018. Still, some poor households in localized areas of Bugesera and Rusizi districts are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, particularly during the peak of lean season in October and November. Refugees living in camps in Rwanda are also likely to be in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2) through January 2018 as long as WFP’s funding gaps are adequately addressed.