Key Message Update

Ahead of the harvest and October to December pastoral rains, food insecurity intensifying

Septiembre 2018

Septiembre 2018

Octubre 2018 - Enero 2019

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • In September, ahead of the Deyr rainy season and the Meher harvest that will begin next month, the areas of highest food insecurity in Ethiopia include large areas of eastern Somali Region, border pastoral areas of Oromia (parts of Guji and Borena) and Somali regions, parts of East and West Hararghe in Oromia, and West Guji of Oromia and Gedeo of SNNPR. These areas are projected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2019.

  • Most Meher crops are at typical developmental stages, and a near-average harvest is expected in most areas of the country. After a below-average Belg harvest in northeastern Amhara and southern Tigray and in parts of central and eastern Oromia, some of the same localized areas are also expected to experience a below-normal Meher harvest due to a delayed onset in Kiremt rainfall (June to September) and extended dry spells through early August. Regardless, outcomes are generally expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) following the harvest.

  • According to CHIRPS, cumulative June to September Karan/Karma rains have been 15 to 30 percent above average, though erratically distributed, across most of Sitti Zone of northern Somali Region and Afar Region. However, rainfall in northeastern areas was below average. With better pasture, browse, and water availability, livestock body conditions are currently average. As milk production improves, despite remaining below average, outcomes are expected to move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in the presence of humanitarian assistance to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), beginning in October.

  • Market prices of most staple cereals remained stable in August, but at seasonally elevated levels compared to previous months. However, household purchasing power is expected to improve starting in October, as staple food prices gradually decline with the likely near-normal Meher harvest. With increased food availability and expected seasonal improvements from the October to December Deyr/Hageya rains, household-level food access from October 2018 to January 2019 is expected to improve in most agricultural and pastoral areas.

  • Insecurity and localized conflict between ethnic groups in parts of Somali Region, Gedeo of SNNPR; and West Guji, and East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia has caused significant displacement, continuing to drive food and multi-sectoral assistance needs. Livelihoods and access to typical sources of food and income remain disrupted, which, based on an increase in therapeutic feeding program (TFP) admissions, has led to a deterioration in nutritional status for children under five and pregnant and lactating women. The reported delayed and irregular humanitarian assistance in these areas due to the insecurity and significant resource gaps among IDPs are also exacerbating the nutrition situation.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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