Key Message Update

Improved Meher rains in June 2019 may lead to average 2019 Meher harvests

Julio 2019

Julio - Septiembre 2019

Map of Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2019: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the west of Ethiopia; Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of Afar, Tigray, Oromia, SNNPR, and Somali; Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of Somali, Oromia, Afar, Tigray, Amhara, Dire Dawa, and SNNPR

Octubre 2019 - Enero 2020

Map of Projected food security outcomes, October 2017 to January 2020: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the west of Ethiopia; Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of Afar, Tigray, Oromia, SNNPR, and Somali; Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of Somali, Oromia, Afar, Tigray, Amhara, Dire Dawa, and SNNPR

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Kiremt rainfall from June to September 2019 had an overall timely start, and so far, has had average distribution and total rainfall, except in localized areas in the East and North East   of the country. Farmers are therefore carrying out land preparations and planting of Meher crops. Total Meher production is likely to be average despite poor Belg rains in late April and early May in the east, south, and north of the country that affected the planting of long-cycle crops. Most Belg crops are atypically at vegetative, flowering or seed setting stages except in localized areas where rainfed Belg green harvests have started.  In southern Ethiopia, root vegetables, vegetable, and cabbage harvests are supplementing food needs for poorer household in addition to humanitarian assistance.  

  • Supplies of staple foods in local markets across the country remain unseasonably low as the Belg harvest is late to begin. Demand for staple foods has substantially increased as own production no longer covers poor households’ food needs and poor households are now reliant on markets. As a result, food prices have continued to steady increase since February 2019. The wholesale price of maize in Hosanna market in May 2019 was about 865 Birr/100kg, which is 4.2 percent higher than in April 2019, 9.5 percent higher than in May 2018 and 36.3 percent higher than the five-year average. In Woldia market inNortheasternAmhara, sorghum prices in June 2019 were about 2365 ETB/100kg, which is 128 percent higher than May 2018 and 102 percent higher than the five-year average.

  • The IDP returnee households in Gedeo Zone of SNNPR Region continue to face food shortage as they have already missed three agricultural seasons and have no own production to meet their food needs. As a result, they are dependent on humanitarian assistance until they can harvest their first own agricultural production that is expected in beginning in November and December 2019. As a result, nutritional status will remain a concern.

  • Cholera/AWD continues to affect people across Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, Somali and Afar Regions and Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa towns. So far more than 871 peoplehave been infected - at least 292 people in Oromia region, 202 in Amhara region, 19 in Tigray region, 131 Afar region, 33 in Somali region, and at least 125 in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. This has resulted in deteriorating nutritional status of children, and pregnant and lactating woman in drought affected regions, and negatively peoples’ movements and peoples’ abilities to perform agricultural labor.

  • In pastoral areas livestock and local cereal prices are increasing at a similar rate, but unfortunately the average goat to maize terms of trade (ToT) remains unfavorable for pastoralists. This is driven by both below-average cereal availability and increasing cereal prices. In Dhegahbour market of the Somali region, the sale of an average local goat bought 100 kgs of maize in June 2019, which is less than in June 2018 when it could buy 130 kgs, but better than the five-year average when it could buy 82 kg. In Kebridehar market in Korahe zone, the sale of an average local goat bought 100 kgs of white maize in June 2019, which is less than in June 2018 when it could buy 130 kgs and also less than the five-year average when it could buy 105 kg.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

  • USAID Logo
  • USGS Logo
  • USDA Logo
  • NASA Logo
  • NOAA Logo
  • Kilometra Logo
  • Chemonics Logo