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Improvement in food security expected in late 2017

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Djibouti
  • June 2017
Improvement in food security expected in late 2017

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  • Mensajes Clave
  • PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2018
  • Mensajes Clave
    • Rainfall during the March to June Diraac/Sougoum rainy season has been average to slightly above average, despite minimal rainfall in April. This has restored pasture and water resources in all areas and vegetation conditions are near average. In the Southeast Pastoral Border livelihood zone and areas north of Obock City, though, rangeland conditions are lower than last year.  

    • Poor pastoralists in the Southeast Pastoral Border livelihood zone are expected to face food consumption gaps and be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the ongoing June to September lean season. This is because herd sizes are below average and pastoralists are unable to sell sufficient livestock and milk to purchase adequate food, and other income-earning opportunities are seasonally low. Food security will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the October to January period when households have seasonally higher access to milk. 

    • In early June, Qatar withdrew its peacekeeping forces from the contested border area between Djibouti and Eritrea. This prompted the Government of Djibouti to send troops to secure the contested territory. Although no food security related impacts have been reported, there is concern that insecurity could further restrict the movement of households towards markets in this area that is already fairly isolated. 

    ZONECURRENT ANOMALIESPROJECTED ANOMALIES
    Southeast Pastoral Border livelihood zone and areas north of Obock City
    • Total cumulative rainfall during the March-June Diraac/Sougoum rainy season was average to above average. Pasture and water resources have improved in most regions of the country. Conditions are lower than last year, but near the short-term mean, in the Southeastern Pastoral Border Zone.  
    • No anomalies are projected

     


    PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2018

    The March to June Diraac/Sougoum rainy season has so far been average to slightly above average (Figure 1), despite minimal rainfall in April in some areas. This restored the pasture and water resources in all areas and vegetation conditions are near average. In the Southeast Pastoral Border livelihood zone and areas north of Obock city, though, rangeland conditions are lower than last year (Figure 2).

    July to September Karan/Karma rainfall is forecast to be average and October to February Xeys/Dadaa rains are forecast to be average to above average. With this rainfall, it is expected that pasture and water resources will remain near average throughout the outlook period. In Southeast Pastoral Border livelihood zone, poor households have below average herd sizes. However, some improvements are expected as a result of consecutive seasons of average rainfall, which will support livestock conception and births, and give poor pastoralists fairly good access to milk from October to January.

    Food prices on the world market for the 2017/18 marketing season are expected to remain low and stable, according to the FAO June 2017 outlook. Since Djibouti imports the majority of its food from the world market, continued low prices are also expected in Djibouti through at least January 2018. As a result of this and expected normal livestock prices, livestock-to-rice terms of trade are expected to be near average throughout the projection period.

    In early June there was some tension along the contested border of Djibouti and Eritrea when Quatar withdrew its peacekeeping forces. This prompted the Government of Djibouti to send troops to secure the contested border territory. Although no food security related impacts have been noted, there is concern that insecurity could restrict the movement of households towards markets in this area that is already considered the most isolated of the country.

    Despite normal access to food on markets due to favorable terms of trade, some poor pastoralists in the Southeast Pastoral-Border livelihood zone are expected to face significant food consumption gaps during the ongoing June to September lean season as herd sizes are below average and households are unable to sell labor and adequate livestock at this time to purchase all food and non-food needs. Food security is expected to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the October to January period when job opportunities increase, households have seasonally higher access to milk and livestock conditions improve. 

    Figures

    Figura 1

    SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Fuente: FEWS NET

    Figura 2

    Total cumulative rainfall in Ali Sabieh compared to the 2001-2010 mean, CHIRPS

    Fuente: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figura 3

    Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Ali Sabieh

    Fuente: USGS/FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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