Alerta

A late start to main season rains threatens crops and labor demand

Agosto 2013

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Sin mapa
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Parques y reservas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Sin mapa
Concentración de personas desplazadas – coloque el puntero sobre el mapa para ver la clasificación de los campos en Somalia, Sudán y Uganda.
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Resumen

The 2013 June to September rains began poorly in parts of East Africa. While rainfall has improved in recent weeks, precipitation would need to continue through the remainder of the season, and in some cases, last longer than usual, in order for cropping to recover. If this does not occur, reduced crop production is likely, particularly in Sudan. The impact on food security would extend beyond the drought‐affected areas, especially because the affected areas of Sudan are the “grain‐basket” of the sub‐region.

Situation

In large areas of eastern and central Sudan, northwestern Ethiopia, and southwest Eritrea, rainfall totals to date are 20‐50 percent below average (Figure 1). This dryness delayed planting, reduced planted area, and forced farmers to switch to shorter cycle, lower‐yielding varieties. Forecasts for the rest of the season suggest average rains, which may be insufficient in quantity and length to mitigate the season’s poor start. National governments and their humanitarian partners should begin contingency planning in the event that the current season does not fully recover.  

The delay was most severe in eastern Sudan, where rains began 30‐40 days late. Area planted is reportedly 30 percent below average and crops are doing poorly. In Qadarif, the most productive state in Sudan, satellite imagery indicates that rainfall and vegetation conditions are at their lowest level since at least 2001. These areas produce 60 percent of Sudan’s sorghum (Table 1), are important sources of  employment, and provide grain to Eritrea and border areas of Ethiopia. Significantly reduced crop production would affect food availability, income, and prices throughout the sub‐region. Recent flooding in Sudan (Figure 1) has damaged seedlings, spoiled recently planted seed, and could delay planting and weeding, further reducing planted area and crop yields.  

In Ethiopia, dryness has been concentrated in western Tigray, a surplus sorghum‐producing area and an important source of labor opportunities for poor households from neighboring areas. This area, along with adjacent areas of Amhara, produces more than 60 percent of Ethiopia’s sesame crop, an important source of export earnings. Below‐average rainfall over the remainder of the season would reduce sesame production and agricultural labor demand.  However, current crop conditions and short‐term rainfall forecasts are better than in Sudan, lowering the risk of acute food insecurity in this region and neighboring areas that supply labor. Below‐average rainfall also occurred over cropping areas of Eritrea but no information on crop conditions is available.

FEWS NET will continue to monitor seasonal performance. An upcoming joint assessment (FEWS NET, FAO, Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation) in eastern Sudan will provide more detail on conditions and prospects for 2013 harvests.  

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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