África del Este

Octubre 2022

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

Septiembre 2022

Octubre 2022 - Enero 2023

CIF v3.1 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Parques y reservas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Mínima
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Los resultados podrían ser peores que los mapeados pero la evidencia disponible es insuficiente para confirmarlo o negarlo
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Concentración de personas desplazadas – coloque el puntero sobre el mapa para ver la clasificación de los campos en Somalia, Sudán y Uganda.
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.
Mensajes clave
  • Record-breaking drought in the eastern Horn of Africa, conflict in northern Ethiopia, Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Sudan, flooding in South Sudan, and widespread macroeconomic challenges have resulted in extremely high levels of food insecurity across much of the East Africa region and Yemen. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, which indicate that severe hunger has resulted in high levels of acute malnutrition and excess mortality or driven households to use increasingly severe survival strategies, are expected in many drought- and conflict-affected areas. Moreover, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is now projected to emerge in Bay Region, Somalia, if donor funding is inadequate to sustain food assistance deliveries beyond September.

  • In the eastern Horn, the October to December short-rains/deyr rainfall season is forecast to be delayed and well below average. The fifth consecutive season of drought is expected to result in widespread livestock deaths and a poor-to-failed harvest in January, leading to insurmountable shortfalls in household food and income. The situation continues to be exacerbated by high regional and global food prices. Consequently, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Somalia, southern and southeastern pastoral areas of Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Kenya. Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected in the absence of humanitarian assistance in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay Region in Somalia, and there is also a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5)  in additional rural areas and IDP settlements in southern and central Somalia. There is also a risk that acute food insecurity could deteriorate beyond Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels in southern and southeastern Ethiopia if food aid is not timely or sustained.

  • Conflict continues to cause protracted or recurrent population displacement, disruptions to livelihood and market activities, and humanitarian access barriers in much of the East African region. The area of highest concern is northern Ethiopia, where renewed conflict in August-September in Tigray and parts of neighboring regions caused crop losses, brought informal trade to a near standstill, and interfered with food assistance deliveries. Although the meher harvest will marginally alleviate food shortages, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are still expected in October-January due to the decimation of local livelihoods over the course of the two-year conflict. Sub-national conflict in South Sudan – most recently in the Upper Nile-Jonglei border region – and protracted conflict in Yemen are also resulting in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, as economic conditions remain poor and households have a limited ability to produce or purchase food. Multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance – which is preventing more severe outcomes in areas classified as Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in South Sudan and Yemen – remains critical to mitigating excess mortality, but funding shortfalls are constraining the scale and impact of food assistance deliveries.

  • While drought grips the Horn, extensive flooding in northern and eastern South Sudan and localized areas of Sudan (South Darfur, Gedaref, Central Darfur, White Nile and Kassala) is expected to persist beyond the typical end (September) of the rainy season. The floods have displaced hundreds of thousands of people, inundated tens of thousands of hectares of cropland, killed thousands of livestock, and impaired road, river, and air infrastructure to the detriment of humanitarian and market access. This is the fourth consecutive year of atypical flooding in South Sudan, where floodwaters from last year failed to fully recede during the intervening dry season, leading to rapid inundation this year even though cumulative rainfall has generally ranged from below average to slightly above average since April. The scale of food and income losses are contributing to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes across the two countries, with the worst outcomes expected in areas that concurrently face the impacts of conflict, such as in Unity and Jonglei states in South Sudan.

  • The impacts of drought and conflict on local food supplies and economic activity, coupled with the impacts of the Ukraine crisis on global food and fuel prices, continue to drive high staple food prices in the East Africa region, which is heavily import-dependent. Import requirements have increased amid atypically large national cereal deficits resulting from below-average to failed harvests and an associated increase in market demand as households have had to replace own-produced food stocks with market purchases. At the same time, falling foreign currency reserves, high global food prices, and high fuel and transport costs have led to local currency depreciation and inflation. On the national level, maize and sorghum prices ranged between 30 percent (Uganda) and 700 percent (Sudan) above the five-year average in September. High staple food prices across nearly all key reference markets in East Africa are placing pressure on household purchasing power, with the worst impacts realized in areas where income-earning opportunities are also constrained by weather, conflict, or economic shocks.

  • The rise in severe food consumption gaps linked to these pervasive weather, conflict, and economic shocks, coupled with high disease incidence (e.g., AWD/cholera and measles), limited access to health services and sanitation facilities, and poor health-seeking and child feeding practices, are contributing to very high acute malnutrition levels in many areas. The prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) has reached atypically high Critical (GAM 15-29.9 percent) levels in many areas in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, while direct or proxy GAM rates have nearly approached or already reached Extremely Critical levels (GAM ≥30 percent) in parts of Tigray and Somali regions in Ethiopia, parts of Turkana and Marsabit counties in Kenya, and parts of Bay region in Somalia.

Food Security

East Africa Food Security Classification (July 2022 - January 2023)

Near term (July 2022 - September 2022) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for medium term (October 2022 - January 2023) periods.

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Medios de vida

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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