Informe de mercados regionales

Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook

Octubre 2019

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food supply and prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement, and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report. To learn more about typical market conditions in Central Asia, readers are invited to explore the Central Asia regional wheat market fundamentals report. In this report, “Central Asia” refers to the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Mensajes clave

  • Wheat production in Central Asia is expected to be over 65.9 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2019/20 marketing year (MY), almost four percent higher than last year and steady with the recent five-year average. Regional supply, however, is four percent below the five-year average due to low regional opening stocks after below-average production in MY 2018/19. As a result, regional MY 2019/20 net surplus is expected to be 30 percent below the five-year average. On aggregate, the region will still produce a net surplus, despite decreased production in Kazakhstan, a main regional exporter. Price trends are expected to be normal as markets in Central Asia are well-integrated with global markets. A regional overview of typical regional wheat production and market behavior can be found in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Market Fundamentals Summary.

  • Trade flows are expected to remain normal despite the reduction in regional net surplus. Afghanistan will continue to meet the majority of its import requirement with Kazakhstani wheat. Wheat prices have been relatively low since 2015 across Central Asia and on global markets. Export prices have decreased recently due to ongoing wheat harvests in Northern Hemisphere surplus-producing countries. Export prices are slightly above the five-year average in Kazakhstan but remain competitive on the global market. 

  • Prices are projected to trend slightly above the MY 2018/19 prices, remaining at or above-average in most countries in the region. 

  • Wheat production in Afghanistan will be near average, following below-average production in MY 2018/19. As detailed in the Afghanistan Food Security Outlook Update,  Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to emerge in many areas during the lean season as many households have below-average incomes and are still recovering from the 2018 drought.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

  • USAID Logo
  • USGS Logo
  • USDA Logo
  • NASA Logo
  • NOAA Logo
  • Kilometra Logo
  • Chemonics Logo