Informe de mercados regionales

Central Asia Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

Abril 2021

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report. To learn more about typical market conditions in Central Asia, readers are invited to explore the Central Asia regional wheat market fundamentals report. In this report, “Central Asia” refers to the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update summarizes market and price trends in Central Asia through February 2021.

  • Wheat production in Central Asia is expected to be around 70.6 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2020/21 marketing year (MY), almost steady with the last year and the recent five-year average. Regional supply, however, is six percent below the five-year average due to low regional opening stocks following below-average MY 2018/19 production. Consequently, regional MY 2020/21 net surplus is expected to be 42 percent below the five-year average. On aggregate, the region will still produce a net surplus, despite significant drawdown on stocks over the last two years.
  • Trade flows are expected to remain normal despite the reduction in regional net surplus. Afghanistan will continue to meet most of its import requirement with Kazakhstani wheat. International wheat prices increased on average in January owing to robust global wheat trade and spillover effects from rising maize and soybean prices (USDA). Wheat prices were on average above January 2020 and five-year average levels. In Kazakhstan, wheat export prices will likely remain above the five-year average and will be competitive on global markets.
  • Wheat flour prices will likely remain above 2020- and five-year average levels in most countries in the region. Mainly due to the below average regional supply, currency depreciation in some countries, and COVID-19 related market disruptions. Furthermore, ongoing La Niña conditions may impact wheat production in the region and could potentially exacerbate food prices in net importing countries.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

  • USAID Logo
  • USGS Logo
  • USDA Logo
  • NASA Logo
  • NOAA Logo
  • Kilometra Logo
  • Chemonics Logo