Monitor Estacional

Below average water availability in most Afghanistan basins at the beginning of spring wet season

11 Marzo 2020

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.
Socios: 
USGS

Mensajes clave

  • Cumulative precipitation, as of March 5, in the areas bordering Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan continues to be about 75 percent of normal while above-average precipitation conditions persist in the rest of the country.

  • Snowpack is currently below average over higher elevations in the central, eastern, and northeastern parts of the country. Snow water volumes are currently below average in most basins across the country while they are at average levels in the Helmand and Arghandab basins. Snow water volumes in the Sari Pul, Balkhab, Khulm, Kunduz, Khanabad, Kokcha-Ab_i_Rustaq, and Panj basins are very close to or at record minimum levels. Snow water volumes are below average due to below-average snowfall in northern areas or the early spring melt, which occurred in early March.

  • The above-average precipitation in the first week of March and forecast for heavy precipitation in the coming weeks will likely result in favorable spring wheat planting conditions. The below-average snow water volume will likely lead to some adverse impacts on water availability for irrigation, although crop development in the coming months is not expected to be adversely affected. On the other hand, second season crops, which are primarily irrigated, may be somewhat affected.

  • Above-average temperatures were observed across the entire country in February. The forecasted above-average temperatures in the coming weeks may continue to accelerate earlier than normal snowmelt.  

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

Precipitation anomalies:

Despite heavy precipitation in most parts of the country in the first week of March, below-average cumulative precipitation anomalies for October 1, 2019 to March 5, 2020 persist in Jawzjan, Balkh, Kunduz, Takhar, Samangan, and Badakhshan Provinces. The precipitation deficits are centered on Kunduz, where rainfall deficits are nearly 70 percent of normal extending, eastwards towards Badakhshan and westwards to Jawzjan. Cumulative precipitation remained average to above average in the rest of the country (Figure 1).

Snow depth and snow water volume:

As of March 9, below-average snow depth anomalies emerged in some basins at higher elevations in the country, while slightly above average snow depths are present in the middle and lower elevations of central and southern Afghanistan (Figure 2). Below-average precipitation and above-average temperature conditions in February led to the rapid depletion in snow water volumes across most basins in Afghanistan. Currently, the snow water volumes across most basins in Afghanistan are below average except in the Helmand and Arghandab basins. The snow water volumes in Khanabad and Kokcha-Ab_i_Rustaq basins are currently at record minimum levels. Figure 3 highlights average snow water volume in the Arghandab basin, below average in the Hari Rod and Sari Pul basins, and a record minimum level in the Khanabad basin as of March 9. The below-average snow water volumes will most likely not impact spring wheat planting activities and wheat crop development over the next few months. The deficits do not bode well for second season cultivation during the latter part of the season; the water availability for irrigation is expected to be below average. This is mostly due to the early season snowmelt in larger basins.    

FORECAST

Precipitation:

According to the Global Forecast System 7-day total precipitation forecast, 40-80 mm of heavy precipitation is expected in southeastern Afghanistan while 20 to 30 mm light precipitation is forecast in the eastern and central parts of the country during the week ending March 17 (Figure 4). The eastern, central, southern and parts of northern Afghanistan are expected to further receive 40 to 100 mm heavy precipitation during the week ending March 24.

The anticipated heavy precipitation in the coming weeks is expected to reduce the precipitation deficits in the north as well as lead to the recovery of the snow water volumes to some extent in various basins across the country. The forecast precipitation is likely to support planting of spring wheat in the northern provinces.

The forecast of above-average precipitation in the coming weeks in the eastern, central, and southern basins have the potential for flood incidence given the forecast heavy precipitation and above-average temperature conditions.

Temperatures:

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast for April-June continues to indicate a relatively high probability of above-average temperatures in most of the country (Figure 5). The forecast of persistent above average temperature and average precipitation conditions may support healthy germination and rapid vegetative growth of crops and pastures during the first part of the agricultural season. On the other hand, above-average temperatures may accelerate the snowmelt sooner than normal which in turn may lead to irrigation water shortages affecting second crop cultivation, especially in the downstream areas.

 

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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