Monitor Estacional

Despite mixed precipitation anomalies, below-average snowpack is seen across the country

1 Febrero 2021

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.
Socios: 
USGS

Key Messages

  • As of January 25, normal to above-normal cumulative precipitation anomalies are seen in parts of the central, central highlands, and southeastern regions of the country Below-normal precipitation anomalies are observed in rest of the country.
  • Below-normal snow depth anomalies persist at higher elevations in the northeast and central highlands. At lower elevations, average snow depth is observed in western and northern parts of the country, while negative anomalies are seen in central, northeastern, eastern, and southeastern parts.
  • As of January 26, snow accumulation and snow water volumes are below normal in most basins across the country due to the prevailing deficit-precipitation conditions.
  • Above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation are expected from February through April due to the prevailing La Niña conditions. Below-average development of snowpack and, consequently, below-average snowmelt runoff is expected in the coming months, likely to reduce water available for irrigated crops. While the first crop cultivation in the upstream areas is not expected to be affected by below-average water availability, crops in the downstream areas are more at risk. For the second crop cultivation, reduced seasonal water availability is expected in the country. 
  • Given expectations for below-average snowpack development, the risk of flooding and landslides is expected to be less than usual. However, localized flooding is still possible because of storms during spring months.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

Precipitation anomalies:

Cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2020, through January 25, 2021, has been average to above-average in SariPul, Samangan, Baghlan, Bamiyan, Paktya, Panjsher, Parwan, and Khost provinces, while below-average precipitation has prevailed in the rest of the country (Figure 1). It is observed that below-average precipitation during January is leading to a steady increase in the precipitation deficits in the northern, southern, and southwestern parts of the country. As of January 25, cumulative precipitation deficits at the province level were worst in Farah, Nimroz, and Helmand (more than 50 percent below normal; though these areas typically receive lower rainfall amounts), followed by Badakhshan, Jawzjan, Kandahar, Laghman, Nangarhar, and Paktika (30 to 50 percent below normal).

Snow depth and snow water volume:

Precipitation deficits in January have led to below-average snow depths across most of the country (Figure 2). This along with above-average temperatures has led to below-average snow accumulation as of January in various basins across the country and even declining snow water volume in some basins. Figure 3 highlights the decline in snow water volumes in the Arghandab, Hari Rod, Kokcha_Ab-i-Rustaq, and Kunduz basins since the beginning of January.

FORECAST

Precipitation: 

Figure 4 shows the Global Forecast System (GFS) 7-day and 14-day total precipitation forecasts ending February 4 (left panel) and February 11 (right panel). Dry weather conditions are expected to continue across the country through February 4. There is a 30 to 40 percent probability of more than 25 mm precipitation in the higher altitudes of the northeast while sporadic precipitation is expected in the northern, central, and southern parts of the country during the week ending February 11. The anticipated precipitation in the second week of February will not only improve the snow water volumes but will also be beneficial in the preparation of land for planting spring wheat.

Temperatures:

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast for February-April with January initial conditions indicates relatively high probabilities of above-average temperatures across the country (Figure 5). The forecast of persistent above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation may lead to reduced snowpack development, earlier than usual snowmelt, and reduced water for second crop cultivation. The first crop cultivation, especially in the downstream areas, may be vulnerable to temperature and moisture stresses. Further, rainfed crop production and rangeland vegetation are likely to be affected by the below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures in the coming months.

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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