Informe de mercados regionales

Haiti Supply and Market Outlook

Septiembre 2019

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Total projected cereal production (maize, rice and sorghum) for 2019/2020 is expected to decrease by almost 12.3 percent compared to 2018/2019 but will exceed the five-year average by about 8 percent. Observed losses for 2019/2020 are significantly lower than those recorded between 2014/2015 and 2017/2018. Maize and rice will experience the most significant reduction in production levels. Overall decline in cereal production is due to the negative impact of a poor spring season harvest on subsequent summer and fall growing seasons.

  • Total cereal supply (production + net imports), i.e. 1,400,000 metric tons (MT), is expected to decrease year on year due to the combined negative effect of reduced local cereal production and increased cereal imports (excluding maize), as the effect of reduced production on supply is greater than the effect of increased cereal imports on supply. However, cereal supply is expected to be almost 4 percent above the five-year average. Imported cereals, particularly rice and wheat, will continue to dominate in the national cereal market.

  • A cereal production deficit of more than 42,000 MT will be observed during the 2019/2020 marketing year, although, compared to the five-year average, a surplus of more than 73,000 MT is expected. The Gonaïves (Artibonite) market will maintain its surplus producing status for the three commodities, even with the expected decline in overall cereal production. Other regions will have to rely on imports, particularly for rice, to cover cereal deficit.

  • Cereal prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory throughout the outlook period. They will also remain atypically high compared to the five-year average due to exchange rate depreciation, the decline in production and the possible withdrawal of fuel subsidies. Furthermore, civil insecurity, fueled by socio-political instability, will increase the risk of riots, which could jeopardize market functioning for staple foods throughout the country, particularly in the metropolitan Port-au-Prince area.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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