Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Haiti

• Spring crops will improve food availability, especially in the Grand Sud region. However, rising prices are limiting households' access to food. In the regions of Artibonite, Centre, Nord, Nord-Est, Ouest, and Nord-Ouest, a successful spring growing season is not guaranteed, partly due to water deficits from April to May.
• The gourde/US dollar exchange rate on the informal market is up to 130 gourdes to 1 US dollar—nearly 20 percent above the official exchange rate. The gourde depreciated by about 20 percent against the dollar between May 2021 and May 2022.
• The security situation is further deteriorating in Port-au-Prince. From January to May, the number of kidnappings increased by more than 36 percent from the previous year, and the number of homicides increased by 17 percent, according to a United Nations report. Clashes between armed groups are escalating and continue to paralyze markets and income-generating activities.
• Inflation, lack of employment opportunities, and insecurity are disrupting households' access to their typical sources of food and income. Very poor households, especially those in the vulnerable neighborhoods of Port-au-Prince and areas previously affected by shocks, will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January 2023. Households in areas where harvests are estimated to be close to average, including Sud, Grand'Anse, and some communes in Artibonite, Centre, Ouest, and Nord, may be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

For more information, see the Haiti Food Security Outlook for June 2022 to January 2023.

Guatemala

• Households in the eastern and western Dry Corridor and in northern areas affected by storms Eta and Iota entered the lean season prematurely as a result of debt and a lack of savings, as well as continued price hikes for staple foods and transportation. Incomes during the current lean season are lower than normal due to a reduction in area planted and, consequently, in agricultural employment as a result of high fertilizer prices. Until September, these households will reduce the number of meals they eat per day and the amount of food in their diet. In addition, households will resort to negative coping strategies, such as atypical migration and selling productive assets, and will therefore be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 
• Many households will progress to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in October, when the peak agricultural labor season begins. The higher income this entails will allow for a seasonal improvement in diets. However, some households, especially in areas in the Dry Corridor and Alta Verapaz, will only manage to pay their debts and cover their immediate food needs, so they will continue to resort to unsustainable coping strategies, thus keeping them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• In the rest of the country and throughout this outlook, the remaining poor rural households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Given the high prices for fuel, transportation, and food, agricultural and non-agricultural incomes will not be sufficient to cover the cost of a varied diet. In addition, many households will see a reduction in their staple grain harvests for home consumption, which will lead to greater dependence on the market. To meet their food needs, they will have to use savings and loans, eat lower-quality food, and reduce other essential household expenditures. In addition, urban areas will be classified as Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout the outlook, thanks largely to gradual economic recovery.
• Although markets will continue to be supplied with maize and beans, food, transportation, and fertilizer prices will remain above the five-year average and increase each month due to the ongoing influence of international factors. In addition, high transportation costs and rain damage to roads will make freight movement more expensive.
• The production of staple grains could be affected by reduced area planted, increased fertilizer costs, and forecasts of unusually high rainfall. Rainfall has already caused flooding and landslides in some localized areas. However, demand for farm labor for the main cash crops is expected to be around average.

For more information, see the Guatemala Food Security Outlook for June 2022 to January 2023.

Remote Monitoring Countries[1]

El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua

• This year, the lean season has been exacerbated by high prices and agricultural losses in 2021. As a result, poor households in rural and urban areas are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until the primera harvest at the end of August. Meanwhile, poorer households in the Dry Corridor and eastern Honduras will continue to resort to coping strategies as they experience Crisis outcomes (IPC Phase 3). From September onwards, the harvest and higher demand for labor will cause a decrease in food insecurity, so the three countries will be classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October 2022 to January 2023.
• Inflation has increased by between 3.7 and 5.2 percent in all three countries since January 2022, and is expected to remain high until January 2023, limiting seasonal improvements, purchasing power, and access to food for poorer households that have yet to recover from the adverse economic and climate events of recent years.
• The primera agricultural cycle began in May and excess rainfall has caused localized damage to some crops. In addition, high production costs have resulted in medium- and small-scale producers reducing their areas cropped. High humidity conditions are expected to continue due to the La Niña phenomenon, which is forecast to bring above-average rainfall until the end of the year. These conditions could result in adverse events, such as increased incidence of pest infestations and diseases in staple grain crops, and even in cash crops. This could lead to slight to moderate reductions in production at the national level, as well as reductions in the length of time household crop reserves last for, and a decrease in demand for agricultural labor.

For more information, see the El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Remote Monitoring Update for June 2022 to January 2023.