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El Niño 2023-2024

El Niño 2023-2024

FEWS NET anticipates that the ongoing El Niño, in combination with elevated air temperatures due to climate change, is likely to affect food security in several regions through below- or above-normal seasonal rainfall. FEWS NET is on watch for drier- and hotter-than-normal conditions in Southern Africa, Central America, and northern South America, and for above-normal precipitation in the Horn of Africa and Central Asia during late 2023 and early 2024.

Timing of wet and dry conditions related to El Niño Timing of wet and dry conditions related to El Niño
Description
El Niño Precipitation Map
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El Niño
Description

This page houses FEWS NET’s latest agroclimatology forecasts and special reports related to current and projected impacts of El Niño.

El Niño events alter global atmospheric circulation, making certain regions around the world more likely to experience above-normal or below-normal seasonal precipitation or temperatures. An El Niño occurs when abnormal sea surface temperatures and air pressure patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean reinforce each other to produce a sustained period with above-average temperatures in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and weaker or reversed trade winds. At the same time, the weaker winds and heat beneath the surface of the sea block the upward movement of cooler, nutrient-rich ocean waters. El Niño events typically last nine to twelve months, or as long as sea surface and subsurface temperatures stay warm enough to sustain these ocean-atmosphere interactions, resulting in abnormal weather patterns.

Signs of El Niño events are routinely monitored and predicted using observations and climate models. The ability to predict El Niño events improves after the northern hemisphere spring. El Niño events can begin as early as summer and typically reach peak strength during fall or winter in the northern hemisphere.

Although the amount of precipitation can vary from one El Niño to the next, consistent patterns across past events provide a baseline for predicting future impacts in remote areas. FEWS NET’s agroclimatic assumptions help to inform projections of future food security outcomes in the countries we monitor. These assumptions are based on historical El Niño impacts, the expected strength and duration of related weather events, and other regional factors.

Read the El Niño and Precipitation Fact Sheet
El Niño Briefings El Niño Briefings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Alerts and Special Reports Alerts and Special Reports
Southern Africa Alert 11/8/23
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Alert: Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025
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Impacts of El Niño Brief: Mozambique
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Impacts of El Niño Brief: Mozambique
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El Nino Global Alert
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Alert: Strong El Niño event will contribute to high food assistance needs through 2024
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Impacts of El Niño Brief: Honduras
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Impacts of El Niño Brief: Honduras
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Resources Resources
El Niño and its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in West Africa Special Report: El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole to have Significant Mu… El Niño and its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in Latin America and the… El Niño and its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa 2023/24 Return of El Niño and Potential Impacts for East Africa NOAA Climate Prediction Center Updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENS… El Niño: What It Is and Implications for Food Security El Niño and Its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in Southern Africa GEOGLAM Special Report: El Niño 2023/2024 Anticipated Climate and Agricultural … NOAA: Experimental Probabilistic Monthly and Seasonal Precipitation Outlook by … NOAA: Model-Analogs (MA) and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) forecasts for Months 1-… NOAA: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Impacts of El Niño in FEWS NET Countries Impacts of El Niño in FEWS NET Countries
Key Message Update Household access to food and income is expected to improve through at least May 2024
Kenya
January 2024
Key Message Update Increasing cost of living is negatively impacting household purchasing power
Zimbabwe
January 2024
Key Message Update Economic improvements ease pressure on access to food
Venezuela
January 2024
Actualización de mensajes clave Leve mejora de la disponibilidad de granos básicos, pero los precios continúan altos
Guatemala
January 2024
Key Message Update The population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected to rise across the region in the coming months
Latin America and the Caribbean
January 2024
Actualización de mensajes clave Condiciones secas y cálidas persistirán hasta inicio del ciclo de Primera
El Salvador, Honduras, y Nicaragua
January 2024
Key Message Update Historic precipitation deficits are likely to dissipate with precipitation in mid-to-late January
Afghanistan
January 2024
Actualización de mensajes clave Las mejoras económicas alivian la presión sobre el acceso a los alimentos
Venezuela
January 2024
Key Message Update Rainfall in December supports replanting, but cumulatively below-average rainfall is expected
Southern Africa
January 2024
Seasonal Monitor Rainfall subsides in late November, reducing flood risk and enabling recessional cultivation in southern Somalia
Somalia
December 14, 2023
Remote Monitoring Report Improved economic conditions likely to mitigate food insecurity in the first quarter of 2024
Venezuela
December 2023
Food Security Outlook Update El Niño enhanced rains support recovery despite flooding and high food prices
Kenya
December 2023
Seasonal Monitor Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor-December 2023
Southern Africa
December 1, 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Drought-induced crop failure leads to Emergency in conflict-affected north
Ethiopia
December 2023
Informe de monitoreo remoto Mejora en la macroeconomía ayudará a desacelerar la inseguridad alimentaria en el primer trimestre de 2024
Venezuela
December 2023
Key Message Update Violence and inflation in Haiti, and atypically low precipitation plus residual price shocks in Central America and Venezuela drive regional food insecurity
Latin America and the Caribbean
December 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Planted area likely remains below normal despite good rainfall in December
Zimbabwe
December 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Food prices remain high despite the start of Postrera harvest
Guatemala
December 2023
Actualización de la perspectiva de seguridad alimentaria Los precios de los alimentos continúan altos a pesar del inicio de las cosechas de Postrera
Guatemala
December 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Flood-affected riverine areas face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes
Somalia
December 2023
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