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El Niño 2023-2024

El Niño 2023-2024

FEWS NET anticipates that the ongoing El Niño, in combination with elevated air temperatures due to climate change, is likely to negatively affect food security in several regions through below- or above-normal seasonal rainfall. FEWS NET is on watch for drier- and hotter-than-normal conditions in Southern Africa, Central America, and northern South America, and for above-normal precipitation in the Horn of Africa and Central Asia during late 2023 and early 2024.

Read the El Niño and Precipitation Fact Sheet
Timing of wet and dry conditions related to El Niño Timing of wet and dry conditions related to El Niño
El Niño Precipitation Map
El Niño

This page houses FEWS NET’s latest agroclimatology forecasts and special reports related to current and projected impacts of El Niño.


El Niño events alter global atmospheric circulation, making certain regions around the world more likely to experience above-normal or below-normal seasonal precipitation or temperatures. An El Niño occurs when abnormal sea surface temperatures and air pressure patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean reinforce each other to produce a sustained period with above-average temperatures in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and weaker or reversed trade winds. At the same time, the weaker winds and heat beneath the surface of the sea block the upward movement of cooler, nutrient-rich ocean waters. El Niño events typically last nine to twelve months, or as long as sea surface and subsurface temperatures stay warm enough to sustain these ocean-atmosphere interactions, resulting in abnormal weather patterns.


Signs of El Niño events are routinely monitored and predicted using observations and climate models. The ability to predict El Niño events improves after the northern hemisphere spring. El Niño events can begin as early as summer and typically reach peak strength during fall or winter in the northern hemisphere.


Although the amount of precipitation can vary from one El Niño to the next, consistent patterns across past events provide a baseline for predicting future impacts in remote areas. FEWS NET’s agroclimatic assumptions help to inform projections of future food security outcomes in the countries we monitor. These assumptions are based on historical El Niño impacts, the expected strength and duration of related weather events, and other regional factors.

El Niño Briefings El Niño Briefings


Resources Resources
NOAA Climate Prediction Center Updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENS… El Niño: What It Is and Implications for Food Security El Niño and Its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in Southern Africa GEOGLAM Special Report: El Niño 2023/2024 Anticipated Climate and Agricultural … NOAA: Experimental Probabilistic Monthly and Seasonal Precipitation Outlook by … NOAA: Model-Analogs (MA) and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) forecasts for Months 1-… NOAA: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Impacts of El Niño in FEWS NET Countries Impacts of El Niño in FEWS NET Countries
Food Security Outlook Update: Drought recovery continues in Kenya but high food prices impact household food access - August 2023
Food Security Outlook Update: Emergency to persist in several South Sudan counties during harvest amid returnee influx - August 2023
Food Security Outlook Update: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in south Malawi, but food assistance remains inadequate - August 2023
Food Security Outlook Update: High food and fuel prices likely to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in east Burundi - August 2023
Food Security Outlook Update: Mozambique food assistance needs are likely to increase during the upcoming lean season - August 2023
Food Security Outlook Update: Zimbabwe prices remain stable but purchasing power is low for low-income households - August 2023
Remote Monitoring Report: Condiciones climáticas desfavorables reducirán las reservas alimentarias de los hogares del Corredor Seco de El Salvador, Honduras, y Nicaragua - August 2023
Food Security Outlook: Irregular weather disrupts harvest in Central America, while Haiti continues to face gang violence that drives Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes. In Venezuela, low incomes continue to limit access to food - June 2023
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The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

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