Washington, D.C. – The eastern Horn of Africa is facing an exceptionally severe drought that is driving rapidly worsening hunger, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
In a joint Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG) Alert issued Tuesday, multiple agencies confirmed that eastern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, and much of Somalia are experiencing extreme water deficits, made worse by record-breaking high temperatures in recent months.
In some of the hottest locations in southern Somalia, almost no rainfall has been recorded since the onset of the rainy season in October. Many areas received less than 60 percent of normal rainfall, with southern Somalia and neighboring parts of Ethiopia receiving below 30 percent of average, making this one of the driest seasons on record.
“The combination of exceptional heat and extremely low rainfall has produced conditions similar to the devastating 2010 drought in the eastern Horn,” FEWS NET spokesperson Hannah Button said. “Crops have failed across key producing areas. With only a few weeks left before the season ends, and with forecasts pointing to continued below-average rainfall, recovery is no longer possible for crops or rangelands.”
In Somalia and across the Mandera Triangle, severe drought is affecting up to 95 percent of both cropland and rangeland. Images from satellites show vegetation conditions at record-low levels, comparable to the intense 2021 drought. Many households have not yet rebuilt herds lost during the prolonged 2020–2023 drought, and wells and ponds are already near dry at a time when they should be full.
The Government of Somalia declared a national drought emergency on November 10.
According to FEWS NET’s latest analyses, up to 3.5 million people in Kenya and up to 5 million people in Somalia are forecast to be in need of humanitarian food assistance through May 2026, with needs increasing sharply as the January-March 2026 dry season progresses.
Below-average or failed harvests in January and February will deplete food stocks early and force greater dependence on markets as households face rising food prices and limited income-earning opportunities.
Macroeconomic challenges, conflict, disease risks, and increased security concerns will further compound humanitarian needs. Acute malnutrition is likely to rise as food access worsens and livestock are moved long distances for water and pasture, reducing children’s access to milk.
“The impacts of this failed season are clear, and the consequences for the first half of 2026 are predictable,” Button said. “History shows that consecutive poor rainy seasons lead to sharp deteriorations in food security and nutrition.”