Key Message Update

Food security conditions expected to deteriorate alongside further reductions in purchasing power

February 2020

February - May 2020

June - September 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In the coming months, macroeconomic conditions are expected to continue to worsen in Yemen due to severe currency shortages in the absence of additional fiscal intervention, further increasing food prices and restricting access to income. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread in the presence of large-scale humanitarian food assistance. In 2020, it is anticipated that over 17 million people will be in need of monthly humanitarian food assistance. A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists and would be possible if conflict significantly disrupts port operations – thereby limiting the country’s capacity to import food – or otherwise restricts food supply to particular areas for a prolonged period of time.

  • Continued depreciation and disrupted food imports are expected to increase food prices across the country. According to WFP, the national average exchange rate rose 3.7 percent over the previous month to reach 611 YER/USD in January 2020, the highest levels observed since late 2018. According to UNVIM reporting, monthly food import levels through the Red Sea Ports have been declining since October 2020. Meanwhile, in northern areas, access to income is expected to further reduce due to the cessation of salary payments and further disruptions to business and remittance payments resulting from the ban on new bank notes.

  • Increased conflict has been reported in Sana’a, Ma’rib, Al Jawf, and Ta’izz, while high levels of conflict continue in Al Dali and Al Hudaydah governorates. Since November 2019, levels of conflict (as measured by frequency of fatalities, battles, and explosions including air strikes according to ACLED) have been relatively low in Hajjah and have decreased in Sa’dah. According to OCHA, over 5,000 families have been newly displaced due to conflict in Nihm District in Sana’a, Sirwah District in Ma’rib, and Al Ghayl, Al Hazm, and Al Maton in Al Jawf. Meanwhile, access constraints due to conflict and hostility to humanitarian actors continue to limit the humanitarian response.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics