Food Security Outlook

Deteriorating outcomes likely with continued reductions in income and increased food prices

October 2015 to March 2016
2015-Q4-1-1-YE-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In Yemen, important information gaps remain. Nonetheless, recent data from WFP mVAM surveys, household interviews, a UNICEF SMART survey, and NGO partners all confirm that a significant population faces severe acute food insecurity. These data, along with information on water availability, food prices, and income, also suggest that food security has deteriorated substantially since last year.

  • It is likely that significant populations are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, especially those trapped in active conflict areas or displaced. The risk of acute malnutrition also remains high due to the high disease burden and reduced access to health care. Although information is limited, it is likely that at least six million people are currently in need of food assistance. Although vital assistance is being provided by humanitarian partners, the scale of current needs is well beyond response capacity.

  • Available evidence indicates that most typical sources of income for poor households have been adversely affected during the conflict, while food prices in most areas have been well above pre-crisis levels. A continuation of current trends of reduced household income and increased food prices could lead to deteriorating food security outcomes in the coming months.

  • In late October, reports indicated that the Yemeni rial (YER) began to depreciate against the U.S. dollar (USD) and other currencies, at unofficial rates. With Yemen’s heavy reliance on food imports, including for 85 percent of its cereals consumption, depreciation of the rial would likely put further upward pressure on food prices.

     

    For more information on the food security outlook, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics