Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Conflict in Yemen continues to displace households, disrupt livelihoods, and restrict access to income for many people. While some agricultural areas are currently harvesting cereals and fruits, agricultural production is below average overall due to declining incentives for agricultural production as well as some localized damage from locusts. Nationally, the importance of agricultural production to the food supply continues to decrease. Meanwhile, prices of food and essential non-food commodities remain significantly elevated compared to pre-conflict levels. In this environment of reduced access to income and diminished purchasing power, the majority of Yemenis are unable to meet their food and essential non-food needs. It is expected that many households in worst-affected areas face large consumption gaps, and malnutrition remain a serious concern in many areas. Hajjah and Sa’dah continue to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. In the rest of the country, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread, with worse outcomes likely in areas where conflict frequently restricts humanitarian access, such as parts of southern Al Hudaydah.

According to data from ACLED and Intelyse, the number of battles at the national level increased slightly in the month of November compared to October, while the number of incidents of explosions/remote violence decreased slightly. This decrease was driven by localized decreases in air/drone strikes, with the frequency of shelling/artillery/missile attacks increasing slightly nationwide. Though the number of recorded monthly fatalities has continued to decrease since June, the number of civilian injuries and fatalities increased in November relative to October according to CIMP. In November, governorates worst affected by conflict were Al Hudaydah, Sa’dah, Al Dali’, and Ta’izz. Conflict in Hajjah, meanwhile, decreased to the lowest levels observed since early 2016. This has been attributed to de-escalation efforts between warring parties, although similar reductions in violence – such as the reduction in airstrikes observed in early November in Al Hudaydah City – have not been maintained. Meanwhile, implementation of the Riyadh Agreement in the south has faced difficulties. In Aden City, conflict increased in late November to the highest levels observed since the fighting in August. Increased conflict was also reported in parts of Abyan and Shabwah in late November and early December.

Persistent conflict, including shelling and airstrikes, continues to displace populations in western parts of Yemen and hinder the movement of goods and humanitarian actors. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), over 390,000 people (65,000 households) have been displaced between January 1 and November 30, 2019. In this time, governorates with the highest numbers of displaced households recorded have been Hajjah (17,000), Al Dali’ (11,000), Al Hudaydah (10,000), and Ta’izz (7,000). Since November 10, the highest numbers of newly displaced households have been recorded in Al Dali’ (590), Ta’izz (509), Ma’rib (335), and Al Hudaydah (128), primarily due to increased conflict in Al Dali’, Ta’izz, parts of Al Hudaydah, and parts of Ma’rib. According to the Logistics Cluster’s Access Constraints map published on August 26 and corroborated by key informants, areas of road in Hajjah, Sa’ada, Al Hudaydah, Al Dali’, and Ta’izz continue to be closed or difficult to access. Areas of road in Shabwah and Abyan were also restricted between August and October, though the situation may have improved in October and early November given overall calming of tensions.

The scaled-up provision of humanitarian food assistance has continued in Yemen, with over 12 million beneficiaries reached monthly since August 2019 (Figure 1). WFP continues to increase the provision of cash-based humanitarian assistance, reaching a record 470,000 people in three southern governorates (Aden and parts of Lahij and Shabwah according to FSAC) in October. However, pipeline breaks remain possible in the near term if additional funding is not procured. Meanwhile, delays in the delivery of humanitarian assistance continue. As of late November, humanitarian actors report continued and even increased difficulties operating in Houthi-controlled areas.

Poor macroeconomic conditions continue to restrict access to income and reduce household purchasing power for most Yemenis. The Yemeni government continues to face severe liquidity constraints, and payments of government salaries and pensions remain sporadic. Recent efforts to increase government revenue have been impeded by the conflict; the imposition of new fuel tariffs in September led to severe fuel shortages, while steps toward increasing oil production and exports have been met with armed attacks. In mid-November, the Yemeni government reported generating 29 billion Yemeni Rials – over 100,000 USD – from the Decree 49 fuel import tariffs between August 13 and November 14. Though celebrated by the government as a step toward economic stability, this amount is a small fraction of the current 2 billion USD deficit. Meanwhile, the Yemeni Rial appreciated by 2.4 percent between September and October to reach 589 YER/USD, according to WFP data. This slight strengthening of the currency in October coincided with cautious optimism surrounding the Riyadh Agreement in the south. Prior to September, the Rial had been depreciating steadily from 508 YER/USD in April.

Food imports through the Red Sea ports of Hudaydah and Salif increased in both October and November according to UNVIM reports (Figure 2). In November, a total 350,858 tons of food were imported, representing a 16 percent increase over the 2019 average (January-October) and a 4 percent increase over October. On average, food imports have increased in 2019 relative to 2018, though it should be noted that a significant proportion of imported food is intended for food aid rather than markets. According to a recent assessment by Pragma, 53 percent of all food imported in October entered through these ports (33 percent through Hudaydah and 20 percent through Salif), while a total 40 percent entered through Aden. While import levels are variable, these estimates corroborate those reported by the FAO in August (54 percent of food imports through the Red Sea ports and 41 percent through Aden), suggesting that Hudaydah’s share of the country’s food imports has decreased relative to the time when it accounted for an estimated 70-80 percent. This latter figure originated in 2017 or possibly earlier, though is still commonly cited.

According to both the Sana’a Center and UNVIM, the 2 billion USD deposited by Saudi Arabia in early 2018 – used to finance food imports – is expected to be depleted in early 2020. If this occurs in the absence of additional foreign assistance, it is expected that the currency will depreciate, further increasing food prices. Furthermore, food imports will decrease in the absence of financing, restricting supply and putting additional upward pressure on prices. On December 6, UNVIM reported that approvals of new applications for letters of credit for food imports have stopped due to the anticipated depletion of the deposit, with an atypically low quantity of food in the pipeline. Additionally, key informants corroborate that some traders are reducing purchases intended for sale in early January in order to avoid costs and other disadvantages, buying and maintaining only enough inventory to meet immediate demands in anticipation of impending currency depreciation. Wheat flour prices remained stable at the national level in October according to WFP price monitoring, though at significantly above-average levels across most markets in Yemen. Prices remained highest in Ibb City (Ibb) and Al Hazum (Al Jawf), at 400 and 350 YER/kg, respectively. Other areas where prices were at least 300 YER/kg were Addaleh Town (Al Dali’), Mahweet, Dhamar City, Mukalla City (Hadramaut), Al Hawta Town (Lahij), Ma’rib City, Sa’dah City, and Ta’izz City. Price increases between September and October were greatest in Aden City (from 250 to 275 YER/kg) and Mahweet (from 282.5 to 300 YER/kg). Prices were lowest in Al Mahrah (220 YER/kg) and Socotra (225 YER/kg), with the greatest price decrease observed in Socotra (from 300 to 225 YER/kg).

Fuel imports through the Red Sea ports also increased in both October and November. After low import levels and severe shortages extended throughout most of October, the easing of restrictions toward the end of the month allowed several tankers to unload, bringing the total amount imported to 168,087 tons. This was a 32 percent increase over September totals, when fuel imports were at the lowest levels observed since April. In November, a total 191,612 tons were imported, representing a 14 percent increase over October levels. So far, the easing of the import restrictions imposed in August has continued with the government reportedly allowing fuel importers to defer payment of the new tariff until a later date. Meanwhile, mild concerns exist over lengthening wait times for fuel importers.

Driven by the shortage, fuel prices continued to increase throughout most of October according to WFP (Figure 3), with the national average price of diesel reaching 478.6 YER/L, an 8.7 percent increase over September. Prices were highest in Sana’a (983.8 YER/L in Bani Matar and 622.5 YER/L in Sana’a City), Haradh Town (Hajjah; 762.5 YER/L), Al Jabeen (Raymah; 712.5 YER/L), Sa’dah City (613.8 YER/L), and Al Bayda City (612.5 YER/L). The national average price of petrol, meanwhile, rose 3.2 percent to reach 411 YER/L in October, with highest local prices observed in Haradh Town (Hajjah; 675 YER/L), Al Jabeen (Raymah; 643.8 YER/L), and Al Hudaydah (607.5 YER/L). The national average price of cooking gas increased 13.1 percent between September and October, reaching 5,441 YER/18 kg. More recently, prices have reportedly returned to pre-shortage levels, though data are not yet available. Fuel prices remain more than double pre-conflict levels, which continues to strain typical livelihood activities and put upward pressure on food prices through higher transportation costs.

According to the FAO’s December desert locust bulletin, multiple swarms of locusts have formed on the western coast of Yemen, expected to breed and move northward. Although 90 percent of the nation’s food is currently imported, populations dependent on agriculture throughout western Yemen have been impacted by locust swarms since August. Locusts have damaged crops, livestock pastures, and beehives, thereby reducing food available for own-consumption and sale. As a result of poor harvests, some populations in the Tihama coastal plain region and elsewhere are reportedly atypically selling livestock. 

Cholera incidence has generally continued to decrease in recent months, though high numbers of cases continue to be reported. In the week ending December 7 (epidemiological week 49), a total 6,424 cholera cases were reported according to the WHO EOC. This was the lowest incidence rate reported since February 2019. Between April 2017 and September 2019, a reported 2.1 million people contracted cholera and 3,740 died as a result. Meanwhile, concerns are growing over an increase in incidence of dengue fever that has primarily affected Al Hudaydah (particularly Al Garrahi District), Hajjah (particularly Khayran Al Muharraq District), and Ta’izz (particularly Al Qahira District) late October/early November. According to the WASH cluster, a combined total of 6,559 cases and 27 deaths were reported across all governorates in epidemiological weeks 43-45. Diseases such as these impact affected individuals’ ability to earn income while increasing health costs.