Yemen

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Yemen
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Food Security Outlook Update
August 2023
Economic deterioration to sustain large scale of food insecurity in IRG areas
  • The scale of acute food insecurity in Yemen is likely to remain elevated through January 2024, with increasing needs alongside deteriorating economic conditions in areas controlled by the internationally-recognized government (IRG) expected to be counterbalanced by slightly declining needs in areas controlled by the Sana’a-based authorities (SBA). Meanwhile, although the main cereal harvest from October to December will temporarily improve access to food and income for many rural households, income from crop production is now expected to be below the five-year average due to revised forecasts for below-average rainfall during Yemen’s second rainy season. Given this and reductions in humanitarian assistance provision, poor households will remain highly reliant on markets for food amid above-average prices and limited income-earning opportunities. Though some localized improvement (particularly in SBA areas) and some localized deterioration (particularly in IRG areas) is expected, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected to remain widespread at the governorate level.
  • Following a slight uptick in conflict in late July, frontlines remained relatively quiet in August. However, the major parties to the conflict have engaged in escalatory rhetoric and intimidatory military actions in August. On the other hand, in late August, an Omani delegation visited Sana’a, representing the first positive step in peace negotiations since talks stalled in April. 
  • While active conflict remains suppressed, economic warfare between the IRG and SBA is ongoing, with Yemeni citizens suffering the greatest harm. Notably, the IRG continues to face severe shortages of revenue due to the SBA’s blockade of oil exports from IRG-controlled ports as well as the SBA’s blockade of imports from IRG areas via land borders. The provision of public services in IRG-controlled areas continues to worsen, with blackouts in Aden reaching 20 hours per day in August and rising levels of civil unrest recorded in Aden and other IRG-controlled areas. Though the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) recently committed 1.2 billion USD to support the IRG economy, with the first installment deposited in early August, the support will provide only limited and temporary relief. 
  • In July 2023, the cost of the minimum food basket (MFB) was over 26 percent higher than the five-year average across SBA-controlled areas and over 100 percent higher than the five-year average across IRG-controlled areas. In IRG-controlled areas, food prices are expected to increase further throughout the projection period, driven primarily by depreciation of the local currency amid severe revenue shortages. Though wage rates will also likely increase in some IRG-controlled governorates, driven by inflation, suppressed economic activity and high competition for limited labor opportunities will likely result in stable wage rates despite inflation and, consequently, deteriorating purchasing power in other IRG-controlled governorates.
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Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile August 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Classification August 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Classification (July 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (July 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile July 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Classification July 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Classification (June 2023 - January 2024)

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Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile June 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Classification June 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: June 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: June 2023 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML)
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