Karamoja harvests likely to support improved food security through late 2024

Download Report

In bimodal areas, cumulative rainfall during the June to August dry period was largely above average, except for southwestern Uganda, where off-season rains were 75 to 90 percent of average. This was followed by a near-normal start to the September to November second season rains in the north, with a slower and below-average start in central and southern areas, as of September 25. Plowing and planting are ongoing in most areas, with planted crops generally at the germination to early vegetative stages. However, in parts of the southwest and central regions, crops planted during early windows of rain in August faced moisture stress in September and will require re-planting. Overall, the second season rains are forecast to be above average and are anticipated to support near-normal cereal and legume production. In northern bimodal areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will likely persist through October, improving to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from November to January with second season-related income and food access. Otherwise, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to prevail through January, supported by sufficient own-produced food stocks and low staple food prices.
In Karamoja, food stocks from green and dry harvests in August and September and seasonal declines in staple food prices have supported improved access to food and income, especially in southern Karamoja. However, the harvests are slightly below average (though better than last year in Kotido, Amudat, Nakapiripirit) and are expected to deplete by December/January, resulting in an early start to the 2025 lean season. While the number of households facing food consumption gaps is declining with the harvests, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in some areas, especially in northern and eastern Karamoja, where poor households experienced less favorable harvests and have minimal access to alternative income sources, made worse by crop fields destroyed by elephants in the districts of Karenga, Abim, and Kaabong. These households are facing food consumption deficits and poor dietary diversity. However, relatively better food access by poor households in mid-2024 has resulted in fewer children under five requiring treatment for severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in August and September than in the same months in 2021-2023.
As of mid-September, more than 103,000 refugees have arrived since January, with the largest proportion (36 percent) arriving from Sudan. Sudanese refugees continue to be settled in Kiryandongo. However, the recent construction-related closure of the Karuma Bridge (which connects West Nile and northern Uganda to the central region) is causing long transit times from reception centers to Kiryandongo, congestion in reception centers, and slower relocation processes. This is also increasing transit costs from surplus-producing areas to West Nile and the north, which may drive up staple food prices, potentially constraining food access for refugees (particularly cash-based assistance [CBA] beneficiaries). In August, WFP continued efforts towards transitioning food assistance to CBA and mobile money across settlements. The proportion of food assistance beneficiaries that received CBA (rather than in-kind support) increased from roughly 62 percent of beneficiaries in July to nearly 74 percent in August. Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will likely persist across settlements through January amid constrained income access, limited access to productive land, and poor first season harvests, particularly in the north. While food assistance is insufficient to meet refugees' needs, it continues to prevent worse outcomes in some southwestern refugee settlements.
In bimodal areas, retail staple food prices remained 6 to 50 percent below 2023 levels and showed mixed trends compared to the five-year average; although, prices have increased atypically early in August due to the below-average first season harvests. Between July and August, prices of maize, cooking bananas, sorghum, and cassava chips increased by 5 to 29 percent. Retail prices for beans were generally stable month-on-month, supported by imports from Ethiopia and Tanzania. Due to the below-average harvests in surplus-producing areas, food prices are expected to increase until the next harvest in November/December. In Karamoja, prices for beans, maize, and sorghum declined seasonally in August by 6 to 36 percent across major markets due to the start of the main harvest. Additionally, staple food prices dropped 13 to 41 percent below the five-year average, improving access to food for market-dependent poor households in Karamoja.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Uganda Key Message Update September 2024: Karamoja harvests likely to support improved food security through late 2024, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.