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A recent field visit to Karamoja found that most households in Nakapiripirit, Moroto, and Kotido have completed harvesting, but few households in Kaabong or Abim have started harvesting. This is due to differences in rainfall onset that affected when farmers cultivated. Sorghum production is estimated to be below the five-year average, but greater than last year. With access to own production, most households who were in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) currently, but are likely to deplete stocks in February, one to two months earlier than normal.
Staple food prices in Karamoja are seasonally declining as local production and harvests from surrounding bimodal areas increase market supplies. Sorghum prices declined 24 percent on average from July to August. This decrease is slightly larger than the average decline of 15 percent typical of this time. The larger decrease is attributed to the fact that July prices were significantly above average and the arrival of the harvest has since supported price decreases to levels that are now only slightly higher than average.
In bimodal areas, the start of the second rainy season in late August was erratic, causing a slight delay in land preparation and planting. However, average and normally distributed rainfall in September has supported normal agricultural activities. Slightly below-average cumulative rainfall is forecast through November, but average production in December/January is still expected. Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) is expected through at least January 2017.
As a result of ongoing conflict in South Sudan, over 160,000 South Sudanese have sought refuge in Uganda since July. Due to budgetary constraints, WFP has reduced by 50 percent the food rations provided to refugees who arrived in Uganda before July 2015. The 200,000 refugees impacted by this rely primarily on humanitarian assistance and own production. Given the below-average harvest in this area and reduction in rations, many are expected to face increased difficulty meeting their basic food needs.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.