The harvest in Karamoja is likely to be far below average

In bimodal areas, there was not steady rainfall from July through September, so land preparation and planting for the second season are later than normal. Also, pasture and water availability are lower than usual in the cattle corridor. However due to the ongoing El Niño, above-average cumulative rainfall is forecast for October to December, which should lead to overall normal crop development for the second season. However, some low-lying, flood-prone areas may have flash floods as the rains intensify. Bimodal areas are expected to remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through December.

In Karamoja, the harvest through December is likely to be very far below average. Many poor households may not have any crops at all to harvest, and without a harvest, their lean season will continue. Karamoja will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) though December though some households are already in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with little income to support food purchases. 

Incomes from sales of firewood, charcoal, grass, and poles are less than usual due to oversupply, as households sell more to buy food due to the slight increase in staple food prices. Currently, livestock-to-sorghum terms of trade are lower than average in Karamoja, but incomes from labor migration and livestock sales will seasonally increase by December. 

For more detailed analysis, see the Uganda Food Security Outlook Update for August 2015.