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Total second season cumulative rainfall has increased to slightly below average in most bimodal areas, but deficits 15 to 30 percent below average persist in some eastern, central, and southwestern districts. FEWS NET’s early estimates suggest national second season crop production may be 10 to 15 percent below average, though rainfall-deficit districts will likely have larger local production shortfalls. Green maize, beans, and other pulses are available in western, central, and southeastern regions, while late-planted maize and cereals are still in the reproductive stages and will not be fully harvested until January 2019. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are widespread, but some poor households in Teso sub-region are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) given reduced yield prospects.
In Karamoja, an unusually harsh dry season amplified by land surface temperatures 3 to 7 C° above average has led to early deterioration in pasture and water resources. Livestock migration to dry-season grazing areas is occurring earlier than normal, which has reduced household milk availability. Most poor households are relying on market purchases to access food. Those with limited income sources are struggling to meet their minimum food needs despite favorable firewood/charcoal-to-sorghum terms of trade. An estimated 50 percent of the population is Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while about 10 percent of the population – primarily in Kotido and Kaabong districts – are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
The UNHCR/OPM refugee verification exercise was completed at the end of October and tallied 1,154,352 refugees and asylum seekers, of which 68 and 25 percent are from South Sudan and DRC, respectively. Most refugees are Stressed! (IPC Phase 2), with food assistance continuing to prevent deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The Revitalized Agreement for the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan is expected to prioritize a permanent ceasefire, which may significantly reduce the level of displacement to Uganda and promote voluntary returns. Armed conflict in eastern DRC and the upcoming elections are likely to maintain or increase the current level of 100 DRC refugee arrivals per day. Ugandan authorities continue to surveil high-risk districts for cross-border transmission of Ebola.
This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.