Stressed (IPC Phase 2) likely to persist with second consecutive below-average harvest

Rainfall during the first half of the October to December season was approximately 50 percent below average in northwestern and southern Uganda, stunting crops in these regions. Pasture conditions are likely to improve slightly with increased rainfall in late November and expected December rainfall; however, early planted maize, sweet potatoes, and pulses in rainfall-deficit areas are unlikely to recover. Overall, second season production is expected to be below average.

Isingrio, Rakai, Bukomansimbi, Lwengo, Kalungu, Sembabule, and Gomba of southern Uganda and Busoga, Teso, and Acholi of northern Uganda remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In these areas, most poor households have depleted stocks from the below-average first season harvest and now face above-average staple food prices. Given the likelihood of a second below-average harvest in January, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions will persist in these areas through May. Some poor households may be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

In November, pastoralists from Turkana, Kenya reportedly migrated to Kaabong, Moroto, and Kotido in Karamoja with an estimated 50,000 cattle. This is leading to increased competition for declining pasture and water resources as the dry season sets in. Some Karamojong cattle herders have migrated from Moroto, Nakapiripirit, and Kaabong to Abim and Napak where pasture resources are more abundant. Livestock body conditions remain average, although there is increased concern of livestock diseases spreading. 

Over 330,000 South Sudanese have sought refuge in Uganda since July 2016. Most of these refugees arrived after key cultivation months and will only harvest vegetables this season. Newly arrived refugees are heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance and remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). Refugees who arrived prior to mid-2016 were able to cultivate. Although some of their crops were impacted by below-average rainfall, most refugee households planted long-maturing sorghum that is expected to recover with December rainfall.