Delayed and below-average production likely in northern Uganda

During a FEWS NET field visit to central, western, and eastern Uganda in May, about 30 percent of farmers reported the presence of Fall Armyworm on their crops, primarily on maize, and stated that the pest had destroyed 10-30 percent of their crops. Few farmers were applying pesticides to control the spread of the pest, citing the cost of pesticides and the high prevalence of imitation pesticides on the market. 

In northern areas, Teso, and Karamoja, planting took place in late-April/early-May due to delayed and below-average early season rainfall. Above-average rainfall in May has supported crop development and rainfall from June to August, which is typical in northern Uganda, will likely lead to full development of most late-planted crops. However, first season production in these areas is still likely to be below average due to some early season crop losses and the presence of Fall Armyworm. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist until the arrival of the harvest in July. 

In central, western, and southeastern regions, rainfall supported timely planting and many poor households are now consuming green harvests of maize and beans. The main harvest is expected to be on time in June/July, although production is expected to be slightly below average due to some crop losses from Fall Armyworm. Overall, the harvest is expected to support improvement to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in July in areas that are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

As a result of funding shortfalls, newly arrived refugees from South Sudan received half rations of cereals, but full rations of all other commodities (oil, pulses, salt, and corn-soy blend) in May. This represented a reduction from the full cereal ration they had been receiving each month since their arrival. It is expected that these refugees are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) would be expected in the absence of humanitarian assistance.