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Below-average rainfall in March likely to delay the harvest in June

  • Key Message Update
  • Uganda
  • March 2016
Below-average rainfall in March likely to delay the harvest in June

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Although the ongoing El Niño influenced above-average rainfall during the October to December season, there has been a slow start to the March to May season, with rainfall 50 to 75 percent below average in March. Additionally, ground surface temperatures were three to seven degrees Celsius above average. Given current dryness and moisture deficits, it is expected the season will start two to three weeks late, similarly delaying the arrival of the harvest. 

    • In bimodal areas, land preparation and sowing/planting have been delayed due to the sporadic and light rainfall received in March. Agricultural labor opportunities are expected to be below average until rainfall is fully established, likely in early to mid-April. However, most poor households have adequate stocks and are expected to maintain None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity until the arrival of the harvest, even if it is slightly delayed. 

    • Given dry conditions, pre-season activities and agricultural labor opportunities are also atypically low in Karamoja. With few income-earning opportunities, household purchasing capacity is below average. Of particular concern is Napak, where firewood/charcoal and sheep/goat prices decreased from January to February more than is seasonally typical, and staple food prices increased. An increasing number of households in Napak is likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the March to June lean season. 

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for February – September 2016.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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