Poor first season crop production in northern Uganda

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In most bimodal areas, first season harvesting is improving food access and associated income and is expected to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through January 2025. However, following the poor and erratic rains, delayed and below-average harvests are driving at least 20 percent of the population to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in greater northern Uganda, likely through September. Below-normal household food stock levels are expected to deplete earlier than normal in the north, reportedly driving households to ration food stocks and limit non-essential purchases to meet food and non-food needs. While the first season of crop harvesting is largely finished, the atypically favorable rains in July are supporting the planting of short-cycle crops. Improved pasture and water availability are also supporting near-normal livestock productivity. Overall, while the national crop surplus is lower than typical, it is still generally sufficient to support normal or near-normal market food supply in most areas in July. This is supporting improving purchasing power among most urban households and increased food availability from own-produced food among rural households. Between October and January, outcomes are expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with increased labor opportunities during the second season rains.
A revised forecast for Karamoja indicates that cumulative rainfall during the April-September 2024 season is likely to be near-average with localized areas of above-average rains. In Karamoja, improved rainfall through July was more beneficial to the moisture-stressed sorghum crop than it was for maize which was damaged more. Rain is supporting grain filing and crop maturity as more green harvest is expected in August. In late July, households began benefitting from increased food availability in the markets from green harvests from southern Karamoja and the western Karamoja wet belts, and newly harvested beans, fresh cassava, maize, and vegetables supplied from the surrounding bimodal areas. Declining staple prices are improving purchasing power and food access though dietary diversity remains poor, dominated by carbohydrate staples. Nonetheless, most households have limited income to purchase their food and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes remain prevalent.
Based on price data from Farmgain Africa, staple food prices seasonally declined 6-30 percent and remained 8-55 percent below 2023 and the five-year average between May and June, following increased availability of first season harvests. The sorghum prices in Karamoja also declined by 9-36 percent in Abim, Kotido, and Moroto, where prices remain 35-57 percent below 2023 levels, supported by increased market supply from neighboring bimodal areas of Teso, Lango, Bugisu, and Sebei sub-regions. Additionally, purchasing power in Karamoja improved in July, with households in Moroto able to purchase more sorghum for each bundle of firewood sold. Due to the below-average harvests, the seasonal decline in prices is expected to last through September, after which staple prices will likely increase with reduced supply and increased household demand until the second season harvest in December.
Amid the ongoing below-average crop harvest, most refugee households remain atypically reliant on market purchases for food amid unseasonably low-income access and households are unable to adequately meet their minimum food needs. The poor first season harvested food stocks – particularly in the northwest and West Nile settlements – are expected to last households less than six weeks. Even with the considerably below-average food prices, refugees’ limited incomes continue to limit purchasing capacity. Many households are already eating fewer meals of less-preferred meal combinations and moderate food consumption gaps are likely among the highly vulnerable and persons of concern across refugee settlements. Although localized area-level Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) Outcomes are likely prevalent in some southwestern refugee settlements due to relatively higher access to land for cultivation and market integration, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue to prevail over refugee settlements through January 2025.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Uganda Key Message Update July 2024: Poor first season crop production in northern Uganda, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.