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In bimodal areas, average to above-average harvests are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through January. In Karamoja, a July FEWS NET field assessment confirmed harvests will be delayed until September, extending the lean season. Although heavy rainfall has ceased, the impacts of flooding and waterlogging were more significant than previously anticipated, and are likely to lead to an estimated 30 to 60 percent decrease in yields. Maize crops, however, continue to perform well. Poor households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September, when the harvest provides stocks sufficient to improve outcomes to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through December.
Surplus staple production in bimodal areas has increased overall market supply, keeping June prices comparable to the five-year average but below June 2017 prices by as much as 65 percent in key reference markets. In Karamoja, incoming flows from Teso and Lango sub-regions are supporting labor- and firewood-to-sorghum terms of trade that are above the five-year average. These trends are expected to continue through August, enabling higher than normal food access for purchase-dependent households.
Approximately 8,700 new refugees arrived in Uganda in June, primarily driven by conflict in South Sudan and the DRC. In July, the weekly arrival rate of DRC refugees increased 35 percent to 1,700, compared to early June. Rations continued at planned levels in July, maintaining Stressed! outcomes. However, WFP anticipates funding gaps may result in ration cuts for refugees by August. Should the absence of humanitarian assistance occur, food security is likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.