Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Karamoja and most refugee settlements persists despite the harvest

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In Karamoja, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in several areas, with the worst affected households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to minimal access to income and low purchasing power. Based on CHIRPS data, following the below-average start to the rains in April and May, Karamoja received 15 to 25 percent above-average rainfall (300-500 millimeters) between June 1 and August 25, especially in southern Karamoja. While the rains caused localized flooding, damaging roads and market infrastructure and disrupting market supply and trade in the worst-affected areas in the south, it generally improved pasture resources and access to wild fruits and vegetables. However, despite the improved rains late in the season, harvests will likely remain slightly below average due to early-season rainfall deficits and limited access to inputs. In August, the start of the green harvest and associated decreases in market prices are supporting temporary seasonal improvement in food security and a reduction in food consumption gaps. With harvests expected to deplete by late 2024, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will most likely continue the January.
Conflict and insecurity in the DRC, Sudan, and South Sudan continue to drive displacement into Uganda. Over 87,000 refugees have arrived since January, most of whom are from Sudan. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in most refugee settlements through January given the high competition for limited income-generating opportunities and the below-average July/August harvests, particularly in the north. The below-average cereal and legume crop production has provided only minimal income from crop sales and associated labor activities. Refugees are unable to earn adequate income from alternative sources to meet their minimum food and non-food needs and are expected to remain reliant on firewood collection/sales, begging, borrowing money, and selling remaining household assets to access food. According to the Cash Working Group meeting in August, current funding for cash and in-kind food assistance for refugees is expected to be insufficient for October distributions, with beneficiaries of cash distributions likely to be more affected than in-kind food assistance. If additional funding is not secured, an increase in the number of refugees facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes is expected through January.
In bimodal areas, the harvesting of first season crops is complete, and many households are engaged in post-harvest activities, such as threshing, sorting, bagging, storage, and marketing. Due to the below-average first season cereal and legume crop performance, harvesting activities did not offer typical wage labor labor opportunities. However, based on available forecasts, September to November second season rainfall is anticipated to be above average in Uganda. This is expected to increase agricultural labor opportunities to typical levels by early September, which is expected to help mitigate the impacts of the below-average first season harvests and support improvement from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from October to January in northern bimodal areas.
In key reference markets in bimodal areas, the retail price of maize, beans, cassava chips, and sorghum remained stable between June and July, supported by the onset of the first season harvests. However, the price of cooking bananas, Irish potatoes, and cabbage increased due to supply deficits, contributing to an increase in annual food inflation from 0.5 percent in June to two percent in July. In Karamoja, sorghum prices were relatively stable between June and July and remained 16 to 49 percent below 2023 and 14 to 44 percent below the five-year average. However, in some areas of Karamoja, beans and maize grain prices in July increased by 14 to 37 percent in Amudat, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, and Kaabong, attributable to both supply deficits from the low harvests and increased transportation costs to markets.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Uganda Key Message Update August 2024 - January 2025: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Karamoja and most refugee settlements persists despite the harvest, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.