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Impact of extended lean season in Karamoja mitigated by surplus national cereal supply

  • Key Message Update
  • Uganda
  • August 2018
Impact of extended lean season in Karamoja mitigated by surplus national cereal supply

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In bimodal Uganda, surplus first season harvests are likely to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through at least January 2019. Most poor households in Karamoja are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until the end of the extended lean season in September, despite limited green and dry harvests available in the southern part of the subregion. However, rainfall 5 to 50 percent below average since June has resulted in deteriorating pasture conditions in western and northwestern cattle corridor areas and may inhibit maturation of late-planted sorghum crops in Karamoja.

    • Surplus cereal supply combined with an atypical decrease in export demand pushed prices below the five-year average across key reference markets in July. While retail maize prices remained near average, wholesale maize price declined 33 to 59 percent. Retail sorghum prices also declined up to 53 percent. In some districts, farmgate maize prices plummeted to UGX 150 (US$0.04) per kg. Inflows of low-priced food commodities are benefitting purchase-dependent households in Karamoja, though the reduction in income will limit essential non-food expenditures for some poor households in bimodal areas.

    • According to UNHCR, 1,720 and 7,434 South Sudanese and Congolese refugees fled to Uganda in July, bringing the cumulative number of new arrivals since January 2018 to 33,546 and 99,447, respectively. Rations continued at planned levels in August, maintaining Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. The risk of funding shortfalls remains, and should cuts to humanitarian assistance occur, food security among some refugee households would likely deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

    This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.

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