Karamoja likely to have a below-average harvest

In bimodal areas, intermittent rains have fallen. Land preparation and dry planting for the second season are underway in anticipation of the onset of the rains in early September. Average to above average rainfall is expected from September to Decemberor according to regional forecasts and international forecasts. The majority of farmers are expected to have completed planting by the early start of October.

Average harvests from the first season are ensuring staple food availability and access for households and markets. Retail prices of most staple crops have declined following the seasonal trends after the harvest, and they are expected to decline further through October. Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) will continue in bimodal areas.

The September to December rainfall is likely to enhance crop performance and provide above-average pasture conditions for livestock production. Bean production, unlike other crops though, is likely to be below average. However, the increasing chances of a milder chances for a mild El Niño has reduced the risk of flooding in flood-prone areas to less than was expected earlier this year.

In Karamoja, the September/October harvest is expected to only be 20 to 30 percent of average. There will be minimal green consumption this year, and households will not see the usual post-harvest increase in food access. Despite adequate availability of staple food on the market at stable prices, households’ constrained income means they have limited ability to purchase food. Eastern parts of the region are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), especially parts of Kaabong and Moroto Districts.