Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Karamoja and refugee settlements through May

• FEWS NET estimates 1.5 to 1.99 million people in Uganda will likely need humanitarian food assistance between October and May, primarily those in refugee settlements and in Karamoja. Food assistance needs are expected to peak from March to May, driven by the sustained refugee influx and climate hazards affecting crop production.  
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist in most refugee settlements through May while Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes likely to prevail in some southwestern settlements where refugees have better access to income-generating opportunities and land and stronger market integration, while food assistance prevents worse outcomes. Relentless regional conflicts continue to drive an influx of refugees into Uganda. A cumulative 126,686 refugees and asylum seekers have arrived in Uganda since January 2024, including 43,724 from Sudan, 31,704 from DRC, and 27,381 from South Sudan, with the rest from other countries.
• Following four to five consecutive years of poor harvests, Karamoja had a near-average sorghum harvest in 2024, which is expected to support improved food access through the post-harvest period (October to December) and improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through much of western and southern Karamoja through January. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in northeastern Karamoja due to the less favorable harvests and deteriorated livelihoods. Most of Karamoja will likely revert to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from March to May during the unimodal lean season once harvests have exhausted and staple prices seasonally increase.
• In bimodal areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely ongoing across the greater north in October due to below-average first season crop production; however, this is expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) starting in November and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected through May in all bimodal areas. However, a below-average start to second season rains will likely cause localized disruptions to crop production, resulting in an increase in households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between February and May ahead of the first season 2025 harvest.

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 25, 2024.

Improved food security in Karamoja; near-average national second season production likely to sustain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in bimodal areas through May 2025

Recent harvests in Karamoja have increased food availability and access and reduced food consumption gaps, improving area-level outcomes from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in several areas, particularly across southern and western Karamoja. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist at the area-level in northern and eastern areas, which received less favorable harvests and continue to recover from consecutive years of below-average harvests and loss of livelihoods. The recent harvest has supported higher household and market food stocks than recent years, driving a seasonal decline in sorghum and maize prices in the post-harvest period and boosting purchasing power and food access. However, as harvests deplete in early 2025 and households increasingly rely on market purchases, food security outcomes are expected to deteriorate during the lean season, with widening food consumption gaps and an increase in household- and area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes from February to May. 

In bimodal areas, Stressed IPC (Phase 2) outcomes remain prevalent in most districts of northern Uganda in October, including parts of the Teso subregion and eastern Uganda. This follows the atypically early exhaustion of below-average food stocks from the first season harvest. Poor households are atypically reliant on markets for food access amid low purchasing power related to unseasonably low incomes in the north. However, with the increase in second season labor opportunities in November and green harvests in December, food security is expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) by late 2024. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected across remaining bimodal areas from October to May, driven by seasonally low staple food prices, adequate carryover stocks from the first season, near-normal income from agricultural labor opportunities associated with the second season and 2025 first season, and typical consumption of home-grown vegetables and horticultural crops. Despite early second season rainfall deficits in September, improved rains in October to average to above-average levels (Figure 1) are expected to support near-normal national production. However, an increasing number of households in greater northern Uganda, including parts of the Teso subregion, are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as second season harvests deplete with limited remaining income from crop sales. 

Refugees in settlements will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May 2025

Ongoing regional conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, and the DRC are driving a steady influx of refugees into Uganda, with a marked increase in arrivals from Sudan in 2024. This year alone, nearly 60,000 Sudanese refugees have registered in Uganda, which now hosts a total of 1.76 million refugees and asylum seekers. Refugees have extremely limited income-generating opportunities, low crop production prospects on their allocated small plots of land, and high land rental fees, which hinder expanded areas of cultivation. Additionally, humanitarian funding remains overstretched, resulting in limited rations that are insufficient to fill refugees’ food consumption gaps. In the northwest/West Nile settlements, poor harvests, limited income from agricultural labor, and poor market integration have contributed to poor access to food and widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes among refugees. In contrast, refugees in the southwestern settlements of Kyaka II, Rwamwanja, and Kyangwali have benefited from more affordable land rentals, better market access, and small business opportunities, and comparatively lower food prices. However, a significant portion of refugees remains reliant on humanitarian assistance to meet their minimum kilocalorie food needs and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes are likely to persist in these areas through May.

Uganda is a surplus crop-producing country and key regional food supplier. The country’s agroclimatology is characterized by two zones with bimodal and unimodal rainfall patterns, respectively. The majority of the country is bimodal, typically receiving rains between March to May (first season) and September to November (second season), followed by harvests in June/July and December/January, respectively (Figure 2). Households primarily produce cereals like maize, millet, and sorghum, legumes including beans, ground nuts, and pigeon peas, as well as perennial crops like cassava, banana, coffee, and tea. Karamoja, the unimodal region in the northeast, receives one long rainy season from April to September, during which primarily sorghum is produced, and Karamojong households also rear cattle. Own-produced food is the primary source of food and income for most rural households across Uganda. Poor households also typically rely on agricultural labor – which peaks during the rainy seasons – supplemented by petty trade, poultry, and firewood/charcoal sales to purchase food, as their own-produced stocks typically deplete before the subsequent harvest. 

In recent years, Uganda has been subject to repeated weather shocks, particularly below-average rainfall during the 2020 to 2023 La Niña-induced drought in East Africa. Consecutive seasons of spatially and temporally erratic and poor rainfall have resulted in below-average harvests, particularly in unimodal Karamoja and greater northern Uganda. The poor rainfall has also limited pasture for livestock, reducing livestock health and productivity.

Karamoja is consistently among the most food-insecure regions due to chronic poverty and multiple years of conflict and weather shocks. Over the last five years, increased localized insecurity – including armed attacks and cattle raiding, both inter-clan conflict in Karamoja and with the Turkana population across the Kenyan border – has caused significant livestock losses, eroding traditional pastoral livelihoods and forcing households to shift to relatively less lucrative livelihood activities such as cropping, as well as charcoal/firewood production and sales, wage labor, and petty trade. During the lean season (March to July) and prior to the harvest in August, households often have inadequate access to food and income and rely heavily on less lucrative income sources and unsustainable livelihood coping strategies. Starting in 2023, heightened government-led efforts have supported a gradual reduction in conflict incidents.

Uganda currently hosts over 1.76 million refugees – one of the largest refugee populations in Africa – primarily from South Sudan (largely hosted in the northwest) and the DRC (largely hosted in the southwest). Protracted conflict in the region, including the Sudan war, has increased new arrivals in recent years, overcrowding transit centers and camps and rising competition for casual labor opportunities. Refugees have historically relied heavily on humanitarian food assistance: primarily in-kind assistance in the north due to the remote nature of the settlements and poor market integration, and cash-based assistance in the southwest due to good market access and labor integration. However, funding shortfalls in recent years have resulted in ration reductions. Before 2022, refugees generally received 100 percent of their daily minimum caloric needs monthly, but as of July 2023, most refugees only receive 30 percent. 

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Uganda Food Security Outlook: June 2024 to January 2025
• Uganda Food Security Outlook Key Message Update: September 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology, the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need and humanitarian food assistance analysis 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section.

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards 

Weather:

In bimodal areas, cumulative September to November second season rains have been average to above-average as of October 25; however, the rains were delayed and generally had a below-average start in September. Early rainfall deficits in September were moderate in much of central and parts of southwestern and eastern Uganda, where rains reached 60-90 percent of average in many areas, while deficits were relatively minor in the north and east, where rains were average to slightly below average. However, heavy rains in October have largely mitigated mainly the early deficits. Rainfall totals have generally been 10 to 50 percent above average across the greater north and east and are generally average with localized pockets of below-average rain remaining in central and southwestern Uganda (Figure 3, 4).

In unimodal Karamoja, the April to September rainfall was cumulatively above average, though spatial and temporal erratic distribution caused some localized floods, water logging, and moisture stress on crops (Figure 5). 

Refugees:

Relentless regional conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, and the DRC continue to drive a refugee influx into Uganda (Figure 6). Since the beginning of the year, Uganda has received and registered 113,407 refugees: 38,514 arrived from Sudan, 33,291 from DRC, 20,949 from South Sudan, and 20,413 from other countries (including Eritrea and Ethiopia). The number of refugees from Sudan has continued to rise since the start of the ongoing conflict in mid-April 2023. Refugees from Sudan are primarily being settled in the Kiryandongo refugee settlement. Ongoing repairs on the Karuma bridge have exacerbated the logistical challenges of relocating the large number of refugees from West Nile to Kiryandongo by forcing the use of alternative, but much longer, routes and increased transportation costs. The sustained refugee influx continues to exert pressure on limited funding for humanitarian food assistance. As of September 30, Uganda is host to 1,756,793 refugees and asylum seekers.

Conflict:

In Karamoja, periodic insecurity in pastoral communities continues to threaten engagement in typical livelihood activities, including livestock production. Despite the disarmament efforts initiated in 2020/2021, the illegal possession of arms and long-standing cycles of reciprocal conflict continue to threaten livestock ownership and impact the pursuit of typical livelihood activities, such as livestock keeping/rearing, particularly in localized remote areas. While armed attacks are occurring at much lower levels than in recent years, they continue to lead to occasional casualties/deaths, instilling fear among communities and restricting access to certain areas for cultivation or livestock grazing. As such, livestock trading routes continue to be restricted to curb the transportation of stolen animals out of Karamoja, and some areas with high potential for crop and livestock production are not accessed due to fear. 

Crop production: 

In bimodal areas, second season cropping conditions are generally favorable, based on available field and satellite-derived information. Planting was largely completed in October, and crop growth ranges from emergence to early vegetative stages in most areas. In localized areas that experienced the worst rainfall shortages in September, such as parts of central and western regions, the abnormal dryness in September resulted in insufficient moisture levels for germination and the early vegetative stages of some early-planted legumes and resulted in some wilting. Maize – a more resilient crop – continues to develop, though it is slightly delayed. In areas with favorable and consistent rains, such as parts of the upper central region and the greater north, legume crops are already flowering, while maize is in the advanced vegetative to flowering stages.

Furthermore, household food stocks are generally still supported by first season harvests in rural bimodal areas in October, except in the north where first season harvests were poor, and household crop stocks are scarcer. The improved October rains are supporting the production of vegetables and supplementing household food access.

In Karamoja, the September to October unimodal dry harvests have improved household food access. The maize and sorghum harvests are near normal and improved compared to the previous four to five consecutive seasons of below-normal harvests despite erratic and variable rainfall between April and September. Post-harvest activities (such as gathering, threshing, bagging, and sales) are providing households with income to meet their basic needs, including the purchase of food. Amudat – which has experienced years of poor harvests due to weather shocks – reportedly had a favorable maize harvest, while sorghum has performed well in the districts adjacent to wetter and mixed cropping zones. 

In refugee settlements, food production remains constrained by limited access to arable land and the inability to access appropriate inputs such as seed and fertilizer, compounded by restrictive land rental fees. While refugees in most settlements are given small plots of land on which to live and cultivate crops, newly arriving Sudanese refugees are not receiving plots of land large enough to cultivate and are instead encouraged to form community cultivation groups to access larger plots of land and engage in shared cultivation. However, the formation of groups for newly arrived refugees takes time and social connectedness and has not been widely adopted among Sudanese new arrivals. First season harvests were limited and generally lasted less than four weeks, exhausting well before the start of second season cultivation. Refugee households are relying on markets for their food needs.

Livestock production: 

Livestock production in bimodal and unimodal Uganda is generally near-normal. Pasture conditions are below average in the cattle corridor districts in central and western regions, mainly due to the below-average September rainfall, but are sufficient for livestock grazing. In the northern districts of the cattle corridor, including unimodal Karamoja, pasture conditions and water levels are above normal and are supporting normal livestock productivity. Across the country, milk production and livestock body conditions are near normal and generally improving along with the slightly improved October rains. Livestock saleability has also increased following vaccination campaigns that reduced Foot and Mouth Disease incidence in districts that were previously under quarantine.

Off-own-farm sources of income: 

In bimodal areas, agricultural labor opportunities and income are at near-normal levels in October – when labor demand typically seasonally peaks – amid the improved October rains that are supporting increased engagement in cultivation; however, areas with persisting moisture deficits have slightly reduced agricultural labor opportunities. Incomes from non-agricultural labor opportunities, such as petty trade, casual labor, charcoal burning, and firewood collection, are limited due to constrained capital input, high competition, and the ban on commercialized charcoal burning, respectively. Additionally, only a small proportion of poor households are able to engage in these off-own-farm income-earning activities as opportunity availability is often spread by word of mouth, leaving out a significant proportion of refugees with poor networks and language barriers.

In Karamoja, agricultural labor opportunities and income are near normal from harvesting activities, and the near-normal harvest and agricultural labor are providing sufficient income and food access, resulting in fewer poor households engaging less in livelihood activities like artisanal mining, sand mining, and charcoal production. 

Market supplies:

Market supplies are generally adequate despite the below-normal first season harvest. First season maize grain harvests across typical surplus-producing bimodal areas are moderating domestic maize prices, supported by atypically low demand for maize by typical deficit-producing countries in the region. According to the FEWS NET cross-border monitoring data, maize volumes exported to Kenya reduced significantly from 63,200 metric tons (MT) to only 28,414 MT between July and September 2024 due to the near-average harvests in Kenya. Retail prices of maize grain are mainly trending lower than in August 2024, September 2023, and the five-year average. (Figure 7).  While the first season supply of beans was less than normal following the erratic rainfall, markets are well-supplied with beans imported from Tanzania, Kenya, and some purported from Ethiopia. The Uganda bean varieties are preferred and cost more than imported varieties.The local supply of fresh staple foods, including sweet potatoes, cassava, and cooking bananas, is declining seasonally, although the price is not increasing given the atypically low domestic and regional demand. 

Between July and September 2024, Uganda imported over 30,000 MT of beans from Kenya which assisted in moderating domestic bean prices following a poor first season bean harvest in June/July. In September, the retail price of beans was 5 to 10 percent higher than in August and 6 to 9 percent higher than in September 2023. The price is currently 13 to 34 percent higher than the five-year average (Figure 8).

In Karamoja, the near-average crop harvest is supporting favorable market supply and the recent sorghum harvest is driving declining prices (by 16 to 41 percent month-on-month across monitored markets amid the ongoing main harvest) in September. Retail sorghum prices are also considerably (17-47 percent) lower than last year and the five-year average (Figures 9 and 10).

Household purchasing capacity 

In Karamoja, most urban and rural poor households are highly purchase-reliant for food, although low incomes remain a major limiting factor. Food access has generally improved following a 16 to 41 percent sorghum price decline across Karamoja markets (Figure 11). In Karamoja, sorghum to goat, charcoal, firewood, and wages Terms of Trade (TOT) are positive across monitored markets, resulting in relatively improved food access in the sub-region, despite poor households still facing constrained food access. Karamoja households in September were able to obtain 210-242 kg of sorghum for every goat sold, compared to 134-202 kg in August, 98-120 kg in September 2023, and a five-year average of 86-141 kg. For every bundle of firewood sold in September, households obtained between 8 and 16 kg of sorghum, compared to 5-14 kg in August, only 2-8 kg in September 2023, and a five-year average of 3-8 kg. 

Despite the reduced and below-average staple food prices, refugees in settlements continue to face low purchasing capacity, largely driven by extremely limited income. Refugees continue to receive minimal income from typical activities such as petty trade, small businesses, and casual labor due to limited opportunities and low demand. Similarly, due to the high population density in each settlement, the availability of natural resources (for charcoal, firewood, and wild food sales) has reduced considerably and no longer provides as much income. In-kind wages also remain extremely low, and refugees must work more hours for food than before July 2023.

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable.

As detailed in the June Food Security Outlook, following the needs-based reprioritization of food assistance and since June 2024, roughly 96 percent of the 1.76 million refugees in Uganda are eligible to receive humanitarian food assistance. Refugees are categorized into three vulnerability groups – Category 1: Highly vulnerable (82 percent of refugees); Category 2: Moderately vulnerable (14 percent of refugees); and Category 3: self-sufficient (4 percent of refugees) – which receive 60 percent, 30 percent, and 0 percent of their minimum daily kilocalorie requirement through humanitarian food assistance each month, respectively. In September, most refugees received cash-based assistance (67 percent), amid increased efforts to transition more refugees from in-kind to cash transfer modalities. Although roughly a third of refugees still receive in-kind assistance, primarily in the northwest/West Nile settlements, where there is lower market integration. In September, WFP reportedly provided in-kind food assistance to roughly 487,000 refugees and disbursed more than 4 million USD of Cash Based Transfers (CBT) to 947,000 refugees. 

Overall, because of the atypically low staple food prices this year, the WFP cash transfer value has enabled beneficiaries of cash-based transfers (CBT) to purchase more food than last year. However, even with lower market prices, CBT values from WFP are insufficient to purchase the food or the non-food minimum expenditure baskets (MEB). In August, the food MEB cost 69,596 Ugandan Shillings (UGX), while the non-food MEB cost 52,855 UGX, 8-14 percent lower than last August. In both the southwest and northwest/West Nile, Category 1 households could purchase approximately a third (33 percent) of the food MEB with their CBT, while Category 2 households in both areas are able to purchase less than a fifth (18-20 percent) of the food MEB. Additionally, for both vulnerability categories that receive assistance, the value of the CBT is 28-34 percent higher than that of the in-kind recipients; recipients of CBT can, therefore, access up to a third more food with their food assistance than beneficiaries who receive in-kind rations. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

Karamoja region: 

Recent harvests in Karamoja have increased food availability and access and reduced food consumption gaps, improving area-level outcomes from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in several areas, particularly across southern and western Karamoja. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist at the area level in northern and eastern areas, which have received less favorable harvests and continue to recover from consecutive years of below-average harvests and loss of livelihoods. The near-normal harvests in the wetter belt of western and southern Karamoja (Abim, Napak, Nakapiripirit, and Nabilatuk districts) resulted in improved food consumption outcomes relative to other areas. Similarly, Amudat district received a near-normal maize harvest, boosting food availability. The harvests have supported higher household and market food stocks than recent years, driving a seasonal decline in sorghum and maize prices in the post-harvest period and boosting purchasing power and food access. However, in areas such as Moroto, Kotido, and Kaabong districts, which have seen consecutive years of unfavorable harvests and prolonged lean seasons, poor households continue to face moderate food consumption gaps, which have generally been ongoing since 2023. Despite being in the post-harvest period, many households have access to less than two meals per day (with poor dietary diversity). Inadequate incomes limit households’ access to sufficient food or other essential non-food items, worsened by household engagement in stressed sales of crops at low prices to generate income to pay debts. 

Humanitarian food and nutrition assistance interventions through treating moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) for children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women, coupled with the relative increase in food availability and access, have helped reduce acute food insecurity and improved levels of acute malnutrition in general. In Karamoja in August, WFP provided nutrition support to children and pregnant and breastfeeding women, distributing 580 MT of specialized nutritious foods under the Maternal Child Health and Nutrition (MCHN) program and Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program (TSFP). This support benefitted 9,785 women and children treated for moderate acute malnutrition and 127,169 people supported under the MCHN program. 

Refugees: 

Food availability and access are significantly constrained because of the poor first season crop production and limited income-generating opportunities amid inadequate levels of humanitarian food assistance to mitigate consumption gaps. The detrimental impacts of having a limited area to cultivate on small plots of land were compounded by the erratic and below-average first season rains in the north, restricting the already minimal own-produced food stocks. With the most vulnerable refugees financially unable to rent larger plots or the requisite agricultural inputs to cultivate larger areas, households continue to rely on low-wage casual labor opportunities on the highly competitive labor market, resulting in extremely limited household income.

Households are highly market-dependent; although, the value of food assistance CBTs remains drastically insufficient to purchase the food MEB, even with atypically low staple food prices, continuing to limit household purchasing capacity and financial access to food. Most refugees lack remaining household assets to sell and are borrowing money to meet their minimum food needs, while others are reportedly cutting out essential non-food expenses, such as withdrawing children from school. Households are also employing food-based coping strategies such as reduced meal frequency, smaller portion sizes, and prioritizing children’s meals. Refugees consistently face food consumption gaps resulting from their inability to supplement the current humanitarian food assistance rations. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely ongoing in October in most refugee settlements, particularly across the north. Meanwhile, access to income, capacity to produce their own food, refugee land access, purchasing capacity, and integration with the local community are relatively more favorable in some southwestern settlements, such as Kyaka II, Rwamwanja, and Kyangwali, which are assessed to be facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, with food assistance preventing the settlements from tipping into a higher area-level phase. However, a notable proportion of the population in these settlements still remains in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Bimodal areas: 

Stressed IPC (Phase 2) outcomes remain prevalent in most districts of northern Uganda in October, including parts of Teso subregion and eastern Uganda. This follows the atypically early exhaustion of below-average food stocks from the first season harvest and atypically limited income from crop sales. Poor households are, therefore, atypically reliant on market purchases amid low purchasing power related to low income. Households have few disposable livestock assets to sell and are relying on minimal alternative livelihood opportunities, such as casual labor. However, by the end of October, increased engagement in second season agricultural activities with the improved October rains is supporting improving income and food access for poor households across the north. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are prevalent across remaining bimodal areas in October, supported by adequate carryover stocks from the first season, seasonally low staple food prices, near-normal income from agricultural labor opportunities associated with the second season, and typical consumption of home-grown vegetables and horticultural crops.

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

• The September to November 2024 second season rains in bimodal Uganda will most likely be average, with localized areas of below-average rainfall, partially influenced by the development of La Niña conditions by late 2024. 
• The beginning of the March to May 2025 first rainy season in bimodal Uganda is likely to be average, with localized below-average rains, though uncertainty exists due to the long-range nature of the forecast. 
• National second season cereal and legume crop production in December/January is expected to be normal in most bimodal areas. Localized crop damage and yield losses are likely in areas affected by early season moisture stress due to below-average rains in September and/or potential early cessation of rains in November. Overall perennial and plantation crop yields (e.g., cooking bananas, coffee, sugarcane, sweet potatoes) are expected to be normal. Due to the rainfall variability early in the season affecting the timeliness of planting and crop vigor, it is likely that the timing and quantity of green and dry harvests later in the season will vary by subregion. 
• Pasture and water resources in the cattle corridor districts of western and northern Uganda are expected to sustain average to above-average levels due to forecasted average rainfall through November. Normal livestock body conditions and milk production will be supported through December. Seasonal pasture availability is expected through the projection period, increasing with the forecasted average March to May 2025 rainfall.
• Maize and dry bean exports from Uganda to deficit-producing countries (Kenya, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi) are expected to remain below average to average in the medium term, given atypically low regional demand following near-average and favorable first harvests in Kenya and Tanzania. However, the significantly below-average anticipated short rains crop production in Kenya in December 2024 and February 2025 will likely drive a moderate increase in regional export demand.   
• In bimodal areas, staple food prices across key reference markets in bimodal areas of Uganda are expected to remain seasonally low ahead of the November/December harvest, especially in northern Uganda, due to below-average harvests from the June/July first season.  The highest price increases are likely in greater northern Uganda due to transport costs to relocate supplies from surplus-producing areas. Due to the relatively below-normal domestic and regional demand for maize, however, prices are expected to trend at similar levels to 2023 over the projection period, though they will dip slightly below the five-year average in April when the carryover stocks from the previous second season harvest will be released in the market ahead of the first season green harvest. 

Sub-national assumptions for refugee settlements

• The influx of refugees fleeing ongoing conflicts in the DRC, South Sudan, and Sudan is likely to continue through the projection period. The increased number of new arrivals is expected to further stretch inadequate humanitarian food assistance funding. 
• Between September and December, maize prices in the Arua market are projected to trend similarly to 2023 and the five-year average. Between January and March, prices are projected to be average and similar to 2024. In April, prices are expected to dip 10 percent below 2024 with the release of carryover stocks onto the market before restabilizing similar to 2024 and the five-year average level in May.  
• Availability of agricultural and non-agricultural labor is expected to be normal in northwestern and southwestern settlements due to anticipated normal second season production supported by above-average rainfall.

Sub-national assumptions for Karamoja

• The beginning of the April to September 2025 unimodal rainfall season in April/May 2025 in Karamoja is likely to be average and on time. However, there is uncertainty given the long-range nature of the forecast.
• Given this year’s improved cereal production in Karamoja, the favorable terms of trade are expected to last through early 2025, and improved food availability and access are likely to sustain the majority of households until the start of the lean season in March 2025.
• With average rainfall forecasted for April–September 2025, pasture regeneration and water replenishment for humans and livestock are expected to be normal. Conditions will remain slightly better than last year through at least December/January.
• Between September and December, sorghum prices in the Moroto market are projected to trend 31 to 41 percent below 2023 and the five-year average. Between January and May, prices are projected to trend 7 to 36 percent below 2024 and the five-year average, driven by the 2024 harvest in Karamoja, second season harvest in bimodal areas, and low cross-border demand for sorghum.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• In Uganda, no humanitarian food assistance is delivered nationally; humanitarian food assistance and safety net support are only delivered in refugee settlements and Karamoja. 

Sub-national assumption for refugee settlements

• Based on WFP’s planned and funded humanitarian food assistance for refugees living in settlements, roughly 80 percent of refugee households are expected to continue receiving either cash or in-kind rations equivalent to 30 percent of an individual's minimum daily kilocalorie requirement through September, while roughly 15 percent of households are expected to continue receiving rations equivalent to 60 percent of an individual’s minimum daily kilocalorie requirements. Newly arrived refugees will continue to receive 100 percent rations for three months and then transition to 60 percent until recategorization. Effective September, all newly registered refugees will be enrolled in cash-based transfers. 
• Based on recent trends, the WFP food assistance pipeline will likely remain stable through May 2025, but current funding suggests variability in projected stability. Current committed funding suggests the cash pipeline is expected to be inadequate to exhaust before December, while the food pipeline is expected to decline from October through January. Regardless, food assistance will likely remain insufficient to mitigate existing food consumption gaps. 

Sub-national assumption for Karamoja

• WFP is likely to continue implementing nutrition-specific activities (nutrition education, promotion of kitchen gardening, sanitation, and hygiene) while focusing on the treatment of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) in Karamoja among pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls and children under five years of age with special nutritious foods through the end of May. 

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

Karamoja region:

The concluded harvest is expected to sustain improved food availability and access for most households through the post-harvest period (October to December 2024), increasing food consumption outcomes to levels higher than the recent four to five years. Many households are selling sorghum harvests on the market to access income to repay debts, driving down market prices and increasing financial access to food for the poor and very poor households. Meanwhile, the lower sorghum prices are limiting income generation for traders or households relying on crop sales to meet their households’ minimum food needs or to pay back substantial debts accrued during the prolonged 2024 lean season. The dietary diversity of poor households’ diets also remains poor – largely carbohydrate-rich sorghum and maize – while consumption of other food groups, like proteins, remains inadequate. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes at the area level are expected to persist in northern and eastern areas through December/January, although the number of households experiencing these outcomes is expected to be lower than in recent years. Meanwhile, southern and western Karamoja (Abim, Amudat, Nakapiripirit, and Napak) will likely remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January as food stocks seasonally decline but below-average staple food prices support favorable purchasing capacity, enabling financial access to food through market purchases. Households will also continue engaging in typical alternative livelihoods activities like firewood and charcoal sales, brewing, and grass and poles sales to help meet their minimum daily required food needs. 

From February to May 2025, as harvests deplete and households increasingly rely on market purchases, food security outcomes are expected to decline, with widening food consumption gaps and an increase in household- and area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. The lean season is expected to begin on time in March, a notable improvement from recent years when the lean season started as early as January. Through May, the impacts of the lean season will be partially mitigated by favorable purchasing power as reduced staple food prices are supported by ample supplies from bimodal districts adjacent to the Karamoja region. However, poor households have limited and low-income earning opportunities to meet their households’ minimum food and essential non-food needs, and households will most likely engage in typical coping strategies, including relying on less preferred foods and limiting meal size, as well as engaging in livelihoods coping strategies, such as reducing spending on non-food items or borrowing food or money. Typical agricultural labor opportunities from February onwards are expected to provide seasonal income to support household food access; however, depleted own-produced food stocks and seasonally increasing market prices are expected to be inadequate overall to support households in meeting both food and non-food needs. 

Refugees:

Refugees in most settlements are expected to continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May as refugees have minimal access to income, poor access to land for second season production, and depleted coping capacity, while Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will persist in some southwest settlements. From October through December, household food and income access will temporarily improve with the second season agricultural activities. Incomes are expected to increase slightly with the seasonal labor opportunities; however, high competition for the few opportunities will limit access to income for the most vulnerable households, sustaining their extremely low purchasing capacity and financial access to food. Lower land rental fees in southwestern settlements may allow for increased food production for some refugees but unlikely for the most vulnerable. The start of the second season green and dry harvests from late November through January will partially and temporarily replenish some food stocks and increase food consumption while decreasing food prices.

From February to May, access to food and income will decrease as second season food stocks will likely exhaust by late February, increasing food consumption gaps and reliance on coping strategies, including borrowing food or money, begging, or even petty theft. While some refugees may maintain financial access to food due to the low staple prices expected through April, the most vulnerable households will continue to face moderate to large food consumption gaps. Food security is expected to deteriorate from March to May, with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). However, in Kyaka II, Rwamwanja, and Kyangwali, refugees have relatively better access to stable and sustainable income opportunities and financial access to leased land for cultivation, although are unable to meet their essential non-food needs. A significant population still relies on humanitarian assistance to prevent food consumption gaps and area-level Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist through May in these settlements. 

Bimodal areas:

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected through the entire projection period in bimodal areas, supported by seasonal increases in household food stocks and crop sales income from second season harvests and below-average staple food prices. From November to January, seasonal improvements in food and income access from anticipated near-average second season production are expected with the green harvest starting in November through the completion of the harvest in January. In areas that had a poor and delayed start to second season rains and planting, such as parts of the southwest and north (including parts of the Teso subregion), localized below-normal cereal and legume harvests in December/January will result in slightly earlier exhaustion of food stocks for some households; however, the low staple food prices will sustain access to adequate food and essential non-food items, supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. 

During the February to May period, the second season national cereal surplus will sustain most household and market food stocks through May, supporting sufficient access to food for both poor and market-reliant households. Forecasted average March to May rains and typical seasonal livelihood activities are likely to continue supporting income-generating opportunities to access sufficient food and essential non-food items across most bimodal areas. However, in parts of northern Uganda that typically receive lower harvests amid higher food prices, an increasing number of households are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes starting in April as second season harvests begin to exhaust with limited remaining income from crop sales and seasonally increasing staple food prices (although this will remain less than 20 percent of the population). 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Heavy rainfall at the end of the October to December 2024 second season

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Heavy rains at the end of the crop growing season will likely positively impact crop production by supporting the maturation of the late-planted crops, enhancing the production of perennial crops like bananas, sweet potatoes, cassava, and cash crops like pineapples, coffee, sugar cane, tea. Additionally, some households would likely produce and harvest more vegetables and horticultural crops as well as wild vegetables. The improved crop production and increased access to food will likely reduce the number of rural households in bimodal areas facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes starting early next year. However, excess or heavy rainfall may result in localized damage to legume crop production due to high vulnerability to excess moisture as well as damage to the drying and threshing of cereals, resulting in minor to moderate crop losses.

Atypical increase in regional demand for Uganda’s staples in neighboring countries

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: An atypical increase in regional demand for Uganda’s locally-grown staple crops in the post-harvest period would increase domestic prices of staple foods to levels higher than anticipated in early 2025. If Kenya’s October-December short rains harvests fail due to La Niña- and strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-induced rainfall deficits, Kenya will likely demand more imports from Uganda in early 2025. The increased regional demand will likely place upward pressure on staple food prices domestically in Uganda. Atypically high post-harvest prices would reduce financial access to food for poor households that are highly purchase-reliant for food, particularly among the urban poor and rural households with poor harvests. This would likely increase the proportion of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across bimodal areas, particularly in greater northern Uganda, where prices are already relatively higher than in other parts of the country. Similarly, atypical increases in staple food prices would likely negatively impact food access for refugees in settlements that are highly market-dependent, particularly in the north. With already low purchasing power due to limited incomes and constrained coping capacity, an increase in refugee households would likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes.

Sub-national area events in the refugee settlements

Significantly reduced food assistance rations or a substantial decline in the number of beneficiaries due to funding limitations     

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Further reductions in food assistance ration sizes or a significant decrease in the number of households receiving humanitarian food assistance would widen food consumption gaps and households would likely be unable to mitigate these gaps with alternative income sources. This would likely result in further deterioration in levels of acute food insecurity. Additionally, a further reduction in humanitarian food assistance may also result in deteriorating acute malnutrition among the poorest refugee households. This would likely result in an increase in households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes during the February to May projection period. Additionally, this would likely result in Kyaka II, Rwamwanja, and Kyangwali settlements in the southwest deteriorating from Stress! (IPC Phase 2!) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Sub-national area event in Karamoja subregion 

Significantly delayed or below-average start to rainfall in April-May 2025          

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If the start of the April to August rains are delayed or below average, normal cultivation activities in April and May, including land preparation, ploughing, and planting would be negatively impacted, likely leading to significantly below-average agricultural labor opportunities and wages, limiting the primary source of income for poor households during the peak of the lean season. With food stocks exhausted and limited alternative sources of income, an increase in households deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) would be expected in May