Uganda
Download Report
Download Report
-
In bimodal areas Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected through March 2014. Most of the country received average to above average seasonal rainfall and had a timely start of season. Normal land preparation, planting and weeding activities are ongoing, and households will likely start green harvest consumption early, by November.
-
In Karamoja, households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) after the third year of below‐average harvests and extended lean seasons. Seasonal incomes are below-average. Livestock prices remain favorable but sales are limited by a quarantine for the endemic Foot and Mouth Disease. The situation will likely continue through March 2014, with a one to two month early start of lean season in January.
-
Markets nationwide are well-stocked with staples commodities keeping prices low since August. This trend is likely to continue through December with anticipation of an early start to the harvest. Food access by the poor remains favorable. National stocks are expected to meet regional food needs for Kenya, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Democratic Republic of Congo.
Current Situation
- Normal seasonal progress and crop performance: Most farmers planted their crops in a timely manner due to the early intensification of rains in August. From late August to late October, the bimodal areas received 25 to 150 mm of rainfall above the normal, which is 80-200 percent above normal (CPC RFE V2.0 and ARC). Most crops including maize, millet, cassava, sweet potatoes, cowpeas and groundnuts are in the vegetative growth stage. A few other crops are already at flowering stage. Beans have arrived early and are already being consumed “green” by farmers.
- Above average pasture conditions in all bimodal areas: Pasture and water resource availability are maintaining average body conditions and milk production. Livestock production in the southwestern districts of the cattle corridor in Kiruhura, Mbarara, Lyantonde, Sembabule, and Bukomasimbi is optimum. No conflicts over water or pasture are expected this year.
- Staple prices for cooking bananas, beans, maize, and millet continue to atypically decline by 27-43 percent from August to September while cassava chips prices remain stable. Prices have fallen due to the abundance of staples available on the market from the first season harvest from June to August and through subdued cross border trade in staples. Access to food by the poor will remain favorable.
- Slow resumption of informal cross border staples trade to South Sudan: Analysis of the informal maize exports from Uganda to South Sudan between July and September showed trade has increased seasonably and were 82 percent higher than in than the April to June period. However, the volumes were half of normal. The increased trade is attributed to a steady increase in demand during a temporary calm in fighting during when movement was constrained due to heavy rain.
- Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity expected in bimodal areas: Above average first season production has bolstered household and market food stocks. Food availability and access are significantly improving since August and remained stable. With normal progress of seasonal activities, poor households that depend on income from on-farm labor opportunities to purchase food have been able to meet their minimum food requirements. Other livelihoods activities at this time like crops sales, weeding, fishing, and petty trade are ongoing at their usual levels for poor households. Currently, weeding and pruning are the major on-farm activities.
- Harvests are 20 to 30 percent of average in the Karamoja region: Dry sorghum harvest has been ongoing since September.
- Restrained livestock sales are occurring though there is a temporary ban on livestock movement due to the outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in May. Households might not be able to sell livestock as easily as in other years due to the quarantine.
- At least 45 percent of the population (691,628 persons) in Karamoja region are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). This season’s 20 to 30 percent of normal harvests did not restore food stocks to the necessary levels needed to cover the six month consumption period before the lean season typically begins in March. This means another long lean season is likely, starting two months earlier than normal. Coping strategies such as natural product sales will likely barely provide enough income to cover the consumption gap.
Assumptions
Between October 2014 and March 2015, the projected food security outcomes are based on the following key assumptions:
- Average to above average harvests from the first season are expected to ensure normal market supply of maize and other staples at the national level and supply regional exports of maize, beans, and millet destined for Rwanda, South Sudan, and Kenya.
- Prices for most staple foods will continue to decline seasonally following the bimodal first season harvests in July/August and will follow the seasonal decline through November as the likely early second season harvests bolster supplies.
- Average to above average rainfall is expected through December in bimodal areas, consistent with forecasts made by the Uganda Department of Meteorology. The forecasted rainfall is expected to favor average to above average crop production, with peak rains continuing into mid-November. Harvests in November and December expected to be average to above-average.
- Bimodal areas will likely have normal household income from their seasonal activities. Earning potential is expected to be normal and allow for seasonally average access to food and nonfood needs.
- Pasture conditions will likely be above-average through December in the cattle corridor districts of Nakasongola, Lwengo, Kalungu, Rakai, Kiruhura, Mbarara, Lyantonde, Sembabule, Isingiro, and Bukomasimbi. Average livestock body conditions and average milk production will likely be maintained.
- Staple commodity trade with South Sudan is expected to slightly increase while informal trade with neighboring countries is expected to behave normally with high levels of demand from Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Rwanda. The improving stability in Juba may increase trade as more traders are willing to bring food there. No policy interventions preventing the free movement of food commodities from surplus to deficit production areas are anticipated.
- Refugees will continue to move to the southwestern and northern districts of Uganda as civil insecurity in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Sudan will likely continue at current or worse levels. The influx of refugees is not expected to interrupt staple prices or labor opportunities.
- The vaccination and quarantine measures are anticipated to sufficiently control the outbreak of foot and mouth disease in the northeastern districts in Karamoja and its closest neighbors. No new cases resulting in livestock losses are expected at this time.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
The advanced stage of crop growth and the average to above-average rainfall in the forecast suggests average to above-average harvests from the second season in bimodal areas. It is expected that the harvest will start 2-3 weeks earlier than usual, lasting from November through January. With abundant supplies on the markets, staple commodities prices are likely to stay low through February. This will likely enable food access for households whose major source for food is the market. Regional demand for staples is likely not to result in price volatility for Uganda, which would deny poor households access to food. Poor and very poor households will remain in None (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through March with the anticipated average seasonal incomes.
In the Karamoja region, food availability and access has improved since September but this situation is only temporary. Poor households’ food reserves are likely to be depleted by the end of February, even while engaging coping strategies such as natural product sales. This year, the household food stocks may provide a buffer if not enough income is earned to cover their food needs, but the poor households’ main food source will be through market purchase. Households will likely eat smaller quantity and lower quality foods. Households will likely heavily supplement their diets with wild foods. Overall, poor households will likely have inadequate purchasing power to access food, and the combined sources of food from the wild and household food stores will minimally cover their food needs, placing households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
For more information on areas of concern during this outlook period, please download the full report here.
| Area | Event | Impact on Food Security outcomes |
|---|---|---|
Karamoja | A break in WFP’s food or funding pipeline, or if food were to be diverted from supplying Karamoja to supplying South Sudanese refugees in northern Uganda or other parts of East and Central Africa | Household food consumption would be seriously reduced in the extremely vulnerable households. Areas benefitting from the school feeding and Maternal and Child care programs would also see an increase in malnutrition among children and expectant and lactating mothers. |
Karamoja | Lifting quarantine on Foot and Mouth Disease | Households would have increased ability to meet their food consumption needs. |
| Karamoja | Livestock prices falling due to lack of traders visiting the region | Although livestock sales are currently restrained, some are occurring. A reduction in ToT for livestock to sorghum would decrease the ability of households to mee thteir needs through this important source of income. |
Karamoja | Humanitarian assistance program scaled up to meet the food needs of about 200,000 people that are like to transition into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) | This would significantly reduce food gaps, enabling beneficiaries to have more regular meals and an increased caloric consumption. |
Karamoja | An early onset of seasonal rains in March 2015 | This would provide casual labor opportunities that may boost households with some incomes to purchase food and enable early planting. |
Karamoja | Late onset of seasonal rains in March 2015 | This would increase the strain on households already in their third year of prolonged lean seasons. Incomes from casual labor opportunities would be lower and households might not be able to access food on a regular basis. |
Refugees arriving from South Sudan | Lack of funding to scale up humanitarian programs | Humanitarian organizations would have to prioritize their assistance within the country. One solution, smaller food rations, would likely lead to use of additional household coping mechanisms in addition to the distress migration to Uganda that refugees have already done. |
National | Unexpected, unplanned local, or regional procurement of food assistance | Unusually large and unexpected purchases in markets could lead to increasing food prices and reduce the purchasing power of households whose staple foods have higher prices. |
To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.