Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely in refugee settlements and Karamoja until 2025

• FEWS NET estimates 1.5 to 2.0 million people in Uganda will likely need humanitarian food assistance during the entire projection period, primarily those in refugee settlements and Karamoja. Needs are expected to remain slightly elevated during the projection period as localized mixed crop production outcomes and below-average national cereal and legume production drive consumption deficits. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in most refugee settlements through January. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are now likely in some southwest settlements where relatively better land access for own-production and market integration are supporting food access, though food assistance is preventing worse outcomes. Conflict in Sudan, South Sudan, and the DRC has driven over 69,605 new arrivals in Uganda refugee settlements since January; nearly 40 percent are from Sudan. Humanitarian resources are increasingly strained, and most refugees are unable to meet their minimum food needs. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely prevail in drought-affected areas of Karamoja, with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) ahead of the August harvest and through early 2025. The early cessation of rains is expected to result in another consecutive year of below-average annual harvests. The seasonal improvement in food availability from July to September with the harvest will partially mitigate food consumption gaps and support improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in several areas. However, food stocks are anticipated to quickly deplete, resulting in deterioration to widespread area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by December/January. 
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the greater north in the areas worst affected by first season rainfall deficits and crop losses through September. The below-average harvests are limiting normal seasonal income access from crop sales, and the early depletion of household food stocks are likely to result in early reliance on markets for food by August. However, food access will increase with the second season labor opportunities and harvests by late 2024.  

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in drought-affected areas of Karamoja; atypical Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes likely in some bimodal areas through January 2025 

Below-average and erratic first season rainfall (Figure 1) has resulted in localized mixed crop production outcomes and below-average national cereal and legume production, driving poor outcomes in refugee settlements, greater northern Uganda, and Karamoja. 

In greater northern Uganda, including the Teso subregion and parts of the central region, atypical Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. The poor first season rainfall in the greater north has delayed and reduced the green harvest yield, and production outcomes are not expected to be favorable or sufficient to replenish household food stocks or income like in a normal season. Poor households with limited harvests will likely become atypically market dependent for food by October. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are therefore expected to be widespread through early November. However, anticipated income from agricultural labor opportunities and increased food access with the second season harvest are anticipated to improve outcomes across bimodal areas in the greater north back to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) by January 2025.

In unimodal Karamoja, consecutive seasons of poor harvest and years of weather and conflict shocks have eroded livelihoods and income-earning activities, which are further compounded by the below-average harvests. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely prevail at the area-level in drought-affected areas of Karamoja, with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) ahead of the August harvest. Increased food availability and access from own-production during the September/October dry harvest is expected to narrow household food consumption gaps in some areas. However, below-normal replenishment of food stocks is expected to provide only temporary improvement in food consumption outcomes, and these inadequate food stocks are expected to be exhausted by the end of 2024, driving widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and increasing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January 2025. 

Uganda is currently hosting more than 1.7 million refugees across 13 refugee settlements, and the refugee population has continued to surge due to protracted conflicts in the region, straining humanitarian resources and services. Upon arrival, refugees are given small plots of land on which to live and cultivate crops; however, the plot sizes for new arrivals are getting smaller due to overcrowding, reducing own-production capacity and further increasing reliance on food assistance. However, amid funding shortages and WFP’s recent reprioritization of food assistance distributions in mid-2023, humanitarian food assistance is insufficient to meet the level of need for all refugees. Refugees remain highly purchase-reliant for food; although, with high competition for relatively few, low-wage income-earning opportunities, refugees have poor purchasing capacity. The majority of refugee settlements will likely face area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in January 2025, with the refugees with highest needs largely in the north and West Nile areas. Meanwhile, in select southwest refugee settlements (Kyaka II, Rwamwanja, and Kyangwali), a larger portion of refugees have relatively better access to stable and sustainable income opportunities (including self-employment), financial access to leased land for cultivation, and benefit from lower market prices, though many are unable to meet their essential non-food needs. However, a significant population is still highly reliant on humanitarian assistance to prevent food consumption gaps and worse outcomes, and area-level Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist through January.

While first season harvests are generally driving improvements in food security outcomes across most bimodal areas of Uganda, continued humanitarian assistance is needed to mitigate food consumption gaps in Karamoja and refugee settlements and prevent worse outcomes.

Uganda is a surplus crop-producing country and a key regional food supplier. The country has two major agroclimatic zones, which receive bimodal and unimodal rainfall, respectively. The majority of the country is bimodal, typically receiving rains between March to May (first season) and September to November (second season), followed by harvests in June and December, respectively (Figure 2). Households largely produce maize, beans, and sorghum, as well as perennial crops (e.g., cassava and banana). Karamoja, the unimodal region in the northeast, receives one long rainy season from April to September, during which primarily sorghum is produced. Own-produced food is the primary source of income and food for most rural households across Uganda. Poor households also typically rely on agricultural labor – which peaks during the rainy seasons – supplemented by petty trade and firewood/charcoal sales to purchase food, as their own-produced stocks typically deplete before the subsequent harvest. 

In recent years, Uganda has been subject to repeated weather shocks, particularly below-average rainfall during the 2020 to 2023 La Niña-induced drought in East Africa. Consecutive seasons of spatially and temporally erratic and poor rainfall have resulted in below-average harvests, particularly in unimodal Karamoja and parts of greater northern Uganda. The poor rainfall has also limited pasture for livestock, reducing livestock health and productivity.

Karamoja is consistently among the most food-insecure regions in Uganda due to multiple years of conflict and weather shocks amid chronic poverty. Over the last five years, increased localized insecurity – including armed attacks and cattle raiding, both inter-clan conflict in Karamoja and with the Turkana population across the Kenyan border – has caused significant livestock losses and severely reduced herd sizes, eroding traditional pastoral livelihoods. This has forced households in Karamoja to rely more heavily on cropping as their primary livelihood, with many households also relying on charcoal/firewood production and sales, wage labor, and petty trade. During the lean season (March to July) and prior to the harvest in August, households often have inadequate access to food and income and rely heavily on less lucrative income sources and unsustainable livelihood coping strategies. Starting in 2023, heightened government-led efforts have supported a gradual reduction in conflict incidents.

Uganda currently hosts over 1.7 million refugees – one of the largest refugee populations in Africa – primarily from South Sudan (largely hosted in the northwest) and the DRC (largely hosted in the southwest). Protracted conflict in the region, including the Sudan war, has increased new arrivals in recent years, overcrowding transit centers and camps, limiting plot sizes for cultivation, and increasing competition for labor opportunities. Refugees have historically relied heavily on food assistance: primarily in-kind assistance in the north due to the remote nature of the settlements and poor market integration, and cash-based assistance in the southwest due to good market access and labor integration. However, funding shortfalls in recent years have resulted in ration reductions. Prior to 2022, refugees generally received 100 percent of their daily minimum caloric needs monthly, but as of July 2023, over 80 percent of refugees only receive 30 percent of their minimum caloric needs.

Learn more

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 20, 2024. Follow these links for additional information: 

• Previous Uganda Food Security Outlook: February to September 2024
• Latest Uganda Food Security Outlook Key Message Update: April 2024
• Latest East Africa Seasonal Monitor: May 2024 
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section.

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards

Weather: Cumulative rainfall during the March to June rainy season was below average in many bimodal areas. Rainfall was significantly below average – ranging from 55 to 95 percent of average – in parts of northern, western, and central Uganda through the end of May. However, in the first two weeks of June, there was an improvement in rainfall – mostly in northern Uganda – while the rest of the country received light to no rains (Figure 3). Overall, the first season has been characterized by spatially and temporally erratic rainfall interspersed with dry spells (Figure 4). The erratic first season resulted in localized impacts on crop production outlined in the following section.

In unimodal Karamoja, erratic rainfall between April and June 2024 is similar to trends observed in 2023 and is affecting crop growth and vigor. While rainfall from April to June 15 has been near to above average, ranging between 90 to 125 percent of the long-term average, the distribution and timing has been erratic. Following a timely start to rainfall that supported a normal start of agricultural activities, rainfall decreased to below average levels in mid-May, characterized by dry spells and light sporadic rainfall (Figure 5). 

Erratic rainfall in May caused localized damage to road infrastructure, standing crops, and residential and public buildings. Landslides occurred in mountainous areas of Kasese, Kisoro, and Ntoroko, while rising water levels in some areas surrounding Lake Victoria and Lake Kyoga displaced people and disrupted livelihoods. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in May, 33,795 people were affected by floods and 12,695 people were affected by land/mudslides.

Refugees: Protracted regional conflicts in South Sudan, the DRC, and Sudan continue to drive population displacement into Uganda. As of June 30, 2024, Uganda hosts over 1.7 million refugees and asylum seekers. Since January 2024, over 69,605 individuals have arrived in Uganda, with refugees from Sudan accounting for the largest proportion of new arrivals: 39 percent have arrived from Sudan, 20 percent from South Sudan, 20 percent from the DRC, and 21 percent from other countries. Most refugees from Sudan are settling in Kiryandongo, while a smaller proportion are urban refugees in Kampala. The refugee influx, from Sudan in particular, is leading to further strain on resources and basic services in the refugee settlements. The plots of land allocated to refugees are constantly shrinking to accommodate new arrivals, and land rentals are constrained by high fees in the northwest and the shortage of land in some southwest refugee settlements. While over 67 percent of refugees in the southwest depend on own-production for food, only 37 percent in the northwest/West Nile produce their own food and 22 percent are market-dependent. Additionally, in the northwest/West Nile, most refugee settlements are more isolated and detached from the host communities compared to the southwest, reducing casual labor opportunities and market access, and households are more likely to have fewer income earners compared to households in the southwest. 

Conflict: Mild and sporadic conflict incidents in the Karamoja subregion continue to disrupt typical livelihood activities and prevent expansion of coping strategies. Government-led security enforcement and disarmament efforts since 2020/2021 have led to an overall reduction in insecurity-related events (including reductions in loss of human life, livestock raids/thefts, disruption of livestock trade, and fear of utilizing certain areas for crop and livestock production activities); however, sporadic insecurity incidents continued through the first half of 2024. The armed attacks by purported Karamojong warriors have led to occasional casualties/deaths, instilling fear among communities and restricting access to certain areas for cultivation or livestock grazing. 

Crop production: National cereal and legume production is expected to be below average due to below-average and erratic first season rainfall. FEWS NET’s field assessment of seasonal crop performance indicates some harvesting began in June, though the green harvest is below average, and in greater northern Uganda (including the Teso subregion and parts of the central region) the harvest is delayed by the late onset of below-average rains. Crops that suffered moisture stress during dry spells are stunted and the grain filling is atypically poor. Crop production in the southwestern districts bordering the cattle corridor have experienced abnormal dryness, resulting in below-normal production for crops such as beans, ground nuts, maize, and bananas. Rainfall improvement in the West Nile subregion during June is favoring root crops like cassava and sweet potatoes, though the cereals and legumes were already damaged by the abnormal dryness in May. 

Livestock production: Livestock productivity in both bimodal and unimodal areas is generally average due to improved water and pasture resources following the above-average September through December 2023 rains and early seasonal February to April rainfall. However, according to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), pasture conditions have slightly declined to below average in the bimodal areas since mid-May due to poor first season rains, while conditions are average to above average in Karamoja Region. 

Off-own-farm sources of income: Agricultural labor income is currently atypically low. Additionally, in some bimodal areas of greater northern Uganda with rainfall deficits, better-off farmers are hesitant to hire labor to salvage their meager harvest due to projected poor crop production and low profitability. Consequently, labor opportunities are unseasonably limited. In Karamoja, agricultural labor income is also below normal due to labor supply outpacing demand/available opportunities. 

Non-agricultural labor and other petty trade/casual labor opportunities involving the use of natural resources (charcoal burning and firewood collection) in both bimodal and Karamoja regions have become unsustainable due to ongoing resource depletion and environmental degradation, resulting in fewer opportunities. The enforcement of the presidential directive stopping charcoal production, coupled with the extensive degradation and lack of trees, has resulted in income loss for many households, although the price of these commodities that do go to the market is increasing.

Market supplies: Above-average maize grain carryover stocks from the 2023 second season has enabled average market supply and generally reduced local staple food prices in May (Figures 6 & 7). The seasonally low prices between January and March increased demand by Kenya’s transit traders, which resulted in roughly 252,000 MT of maize grain trade regionally; 89 percent of the total maize traded came from Uganda. According to the FEWS NET cross-border monitoring data, between April and May, following a poor harvest of beans in the 2023 second season, only about 155 MT of beans have been exported since April, while approximately 563 MT of beans were imported, largely from Tanzania, reducing the relative supply deficits from the limited carryover bean stock. The increased availability of local supply of fresh cassava and cooking bananas across Uganda between May and June as viable alternative staples are contributing to stable or declining prices of maize grain. Staple market supplies are adequate, and prices are supporting relatively stable food access among many of the rural and urban poor or vulnerable refugee populations. 

In terms of livestock market supply, restricted trade routes through Moroto – the only exit for livestock from Karamoja in order to control animal thefts – has progressively decreased the number of traders traveling to the Karamoja region to trade slaughter animals due to the increased travel/marketing costs. The loss of livestock through the prolonged insecurity coupled with the restricted trade route have generally reduced the volume of livestock traded in Karamoja Region.

Household purchasing capacity: In general, prices of staple foods have declined or stabilized across markets in Uganda. In bimodal areas, retail prices of staple foods were generally stable (beans) or declined (maize, cassava, cooking banana, and sorghum) across most monitored markets from April to May. For example, in most markets, cereal prices were 16 to 51 percent lower than in May 2023, and similar to the five-year average. Bean prices were stable between April and May, following harvests in central and southwestern surplus-producing areas of Kyankwanzi, Kiboga, Kyegegwa, and Kyenjojo, and remain 6 to 20 percent lower than last year, but 10 to 30 percent higher than the five-year average. Despite declining staple food prices, reduced income from agricultural labor due to the disruptions in crop production has resulted in atypical decline in household purchasing capacity in bimodal areas among some households.

In Karamoja, retail prices of sorghum showed mixed trends in May. In Moroto and Kotido markets, prices increased by 8 and 15 percent, respectively. Prices were stable in Abim, Kaabong, and Napak, while the price declined by 24 percent in Nakapiripirit. Across markets in Karamoja, sorghum prices are 17 to 51 percent and 13 to 30 percent lower than May 2024 and the five-year average, respectively (Figure 8). Meanwhile, the poor bean production in late 2023 and limited carryover stocks are sustaining bean prices at levels higher than the five-year average, though lower than the same time last year (Figure 9). As in bimodal areas, agricultural and non-agricultural income-earning opportunities are constrained. However, prices of firewood and charcoal have increased and are generally trending above last year and the five-year average, due to the long distances to sources of firewood, the ongoing rains, and the enforcement of bylaws restricting households to one bundle per day. The firewood/charcoal price increase and relative decline in sorghum price have resulted in positive terms of trade; however, the opportunity to engage in these activities is limited, meaning only some households are benefiting from the increased purchasing power, while other households continue to struggle to acquire the income needed to meet minimum food and non-food needs during the peak of the lean season.

Refugee households currently have among the lowest purchasing capacity in Uganda. Due to below-average own-production and associated early depletion of food stocks, refugee households are increasingly market-dependent. However, high competition for income-earning opportunities and limited low-wage livelihood strategies – such as casual labor and the sale of firewood/charcoal – constrain income and reduce purchasing power. Although staple food prices are generally low, there are significant variations in food prices between the southwest and northwest refugee settlements, and refugees in the northwest have relatively worse purchasing capacity. Food prices in the northwest are often higher and more volatile compared to the southwest, in part due to long distances to the northwest markets and poor road quality which increases transportation costs.

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable.

As of the June 2024, 96 percent of the 1.7 million refugees in Uganda are eligible to receive general food assistance. For the first three months, refugees receive rations equivalent to 100 percent of their minimum daily kilocalorie requirements. Due to funding shortfalls, WFP conducted a needs-based reprioritization of food assistance between 2021 and 2023, which categorized refugees into three vulnerability categories: Highly vulnerable (category 1), moderately vulnerable (category 2), and self-sufficient (category 3). Currently, roughly 80 percent of refugees living in settlements are deemed moderately vulnerable and receiving rations equivalent to 30 percent of an individual's minimum daily kilocalorie requirement, while roughly 15 percent of households are deemed highly vulnerable and receiving rations equivalent to roughly 60 percent of their minimum daily kilocalorie requirements. The majority of the food assistance is distributed in cash (61 percent of refugees), though in-kind food rations (39 percent) are also provided, primarily to refugees in the northwest settlements where there is lower market integration; only 6 percent of southwest refugees receive in-kind food assistance. To compensate for higher food prices in the northwest (Palabek, Bidibidi, Lobule, Palorinya, Imvepi, Kiryandongo, Adjumani, and Rhino camps), cash transfer values are typically higher in the northwest compared to the southwest (Nakivale, Oruchinga, Rwamwanja, Kyaka II, and Kyangwali settlements), where food prices are typically lower and more stable. However, due to the generally below-average staple grain prices in recent months, households receiving cash-based assistance (largely in the southwest) can purchase more food with their cash transfers than the refugees receiving in-kind assistance (largely in the north) receive in distributions.

WFP and other humanitarian agencies are also involved in resilience building, provisioning of school meals, and nutrition interventions in Karamoja. However, this humanitarian assistance and support is relatively limited. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

Karamoja region: As the lean season peaks in June, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are assessed to be widespread, with some of the poorest households likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), especially in Kotido, Kaabong, and Moroto. While below-average staple food prices and relatively improved wild food availability in Karamoja have supported slightly better access to food this lean season relative to recent years, households continue to face considerable limitations to meeting their food and non-food needs in June. Multiple consecutive years of below average production in Karamoja due to poor seasonal rains or drought have resulted in limited carryover food stocks, severely reduced food and income access, and depleted coping capacity, particularly among poor households. Limited income-earning opportunities in neighboring bimodal areas due to below-average first season rainfall and poor cultivation constrained typical lean season income access. This, compounded by the limited income obtained through casual labor or firewood and charcoal sales, has restricted purchasing capacity, despite the generally stable food prices. The periodic yet persisting insecurity continues to limit engagement in typical livestock herding activities. Most poor households own few or no livestock and have minimal access to livestock production or capacity to liquidate livestock assets. Poor households are relying on unsustainable livelihood coping strategies throughout the lean season to try to meet their food needs, such as more household members moving to sub-urban areas in search of casual labor opportunities, selling household assets and removing children from school. However, for many poor households this is insufficient to meet their basic food needs, and they will rely on food-based coping strategies, such as reducing the frequency and size of meals and eating less preferred or less nutritious food. 

Refugees: Refugees in settlements continue to face limited food availability and access due to the delayed and below-average first season harvests and limited income-earning opportunities and low wages. Despite generally stable or slightly declining prices in some areas, households’ lack of access to sufficient income is resulting in limited food affordability and low purchasing power amid high market dependence. Amid limited humanitarian food assistance rations, refugees are not able to meet their minimum daily caloric needs. Refugees in all settlements continue to rely on negative livelihood coping strategies to mitigate food consumption gaps, such as borrowing money to access food, selling remaining household assets or land, and limiting medical and other essential non-food expenses, combined with the employment of food-based coping strategies such as eating fewer, less preferred, and less nutritious meals. In the southwest settlements, the majority of refugees are receiving cash-based transfers, have access to larger plots of land for cultivation, and have relatively greater sources of diversified income relative to the northwest, resulting in slightly better food consumption outcomes and more diverse diets. Based on an analysis of key indicators of market integration, access to income, comparative food prices, capacity to produce their own food and refugee land access, and integration with the local community, refugees in Kyaka II, Rwamwanja, and Kyangwali are assessed to likely be facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, with food assistance preventing the settlements from tipping into a higher area-level phase. However, a notable proportion of the population in these settlements still remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Meanwhile, all other refugee settlements likely face area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in June.

Bimodal areas: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are prevalent in much of greater northern Uganda, driven by delays in first season harvests in many areas amid low financial access to food for poor households. In the wetter lowlands of the country, including most of western, central, and eastern Uganda, households are harvesting normally in June and generally consuming own-produced food; normal seasonal improvements in food access and availability are supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, in the greater north, harvesting is largely delayed and the crops that have been harvested are below-average in most areas, limiting normal seasonal improvement in food availability and income in June. Households that have yet to realize their harvests or have only received poor harvests remain atypically reliant on market purchases for food amid unseasonably low income access, and are therefore unable to meet their non-food needs.

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

• The September to November 2024 second season rains in bimodal Uganda will most likely be average, however, uncertainty exists given conflicting ensemble forecasts at this time.
• National first season cereal crop and legume crop production are expected to be near normal in most of southwestern, eastern, and central Uganda. However, localized yield losses and crop damage are expected. In these areas, slight to moderate production shortfalls for cereals, beans, and other staples (such as cooking bananas and sweet potatoes) will be expected.
• Pasture and water resources in cattle corridor districts are expected to decline earlier than normal (as early as late June) due to the erratic, below-average, and early cessation of March to May rainfall. However, forecasted above-average dry season rainfall from June to August is anticipated to support atypical, though slight, improvements in pasture conditions. Consequently, livestock body conditions and productivity are expected to remain near average until the start of the second season in September. 
• Maize and dry bean exports from Uganda to deficit-producing countries of Kenya, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi are expected to be below average between June and September, following projected near-average national first season 2024 harvests in Uganda and favorable harvests in Kenya and Tanzania. With local supplies bolstered by average first season harvests and fewer deficits than normal in importing countries in the region, staple prices in domestic markets are likely to decline following seasonal trends through September before trending slightly higher before the December/January harvest.
• Retail prices of staple food are likely to rise above the five-year average, though remain 6 to 26 percent below 2023 levels through January. Price increases are likely to be highest in northern Uganda where the largest production deficits are expected. Prices are expected to seasonally decline during the bimodal harvest in June/July but will likely rise with the expectation of a below-average second-season production in December due to forecasted below-average rainfall. 

Sub-national assumptions for refugee settlements

• Conflicts in the DRC, South Sudan, and Sudan are likely to continue, sustaining high refugee influxes through the scenario period. Additional refugee influxes are expected to add pressure to the already inadequate funding for humanitarian food assistance. 
• Staple food prices are likely to trend seasonally but generally remain 6 to 26 percent below 2023 and 7 to 11 percent above the five-year average through the projection period. 
• Given expectations for first season production, demand for agricultural and non-agricultural labor through the first season is expected to be below average in northwestern and southwestern settlements.

Sub-national assumptions for Karamoja

• Cumulative April to September 2024 unimodal rains in Karamoja are likely to be near average to above average.
• Cereal production in Karamoja is likely to be slightly below normal levels but better than last year or recent years. However, due to delayed planting, localized waterlogging incidents, and the late May/June dry spells, the start of the dry harvest is expected to be delayed until August/September and will likely be below average. Demand for agricultural labor for weeding and harvesting will likely be near normal, though the timing for labor opportunities will likely be delayed by a few weeks on a rolling basis given the reduced growth rates caused by the dry spells and delayed planting in parts of northern Karamoja.
• In Karamoja, insecurity – including cattle thefts, destruction of property, and armed confrontation with security forces – is anticipated to improve slightly during the scenario period due to heightened security enforcement, including the implementation of a designated transport route for livestock exiting Karamoja. However, pastoral households are expected to have less than normal access to the traditional dry season and migratory grazing areas in central and northern Karamoja, given the random insecurity incidents that occur unexpectedly.
• Following cumulative near-average to above-average rainfall, pasture and water resource replenishment are average but expected to decline during June/July dry spells. Conditions will remain slightly better compared to last year’s through at least December/January.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• In Uganda, no humanitarian food assistance is delivered nationally; humanitarian food assistance and safety net support are only delivered in refugee settlements and Karamoja. 

Sub-national assumption for refugee settlements

• Based on WFP’s planned and funded humanitarian food assistance for refugees living in settlements since July 2023 – when food assistance was reprioritized based on vulnerability assessment – roughly 80 percent of refugee households are expected to continue receiving either cash or in-kind rations equivalent to 30 percent of an individual's minimum daily kilocalorie requirement through September, while roughly 15 percent of households are expected to continue receiving rations equivalent to 60 percent of an individual’s minimum daily kilocalorie requirements. Newly arrived refugees will receive 100 percent rations for three months, and then transition to 60 percent until recategorization.

Sub-national assumption for Karamoja

• Given the programmatic shift in the type of safety net programming that WFP has implemented over the years in Karamoja, school feeding is expected to be indirectly accomplished through resilience programming, such as providing planting materials for schools to grow food. Direct provision of meals is expected as and when resources become available. 
• WFP is expected to continue treating moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) among children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls, though at a limited scale compared to when all identified beneficiaries were enrolled in the program. This follows the programmatic shift of interventions by WFP from supplementary feeding programs to livelihoods support and resilience capacity building in a few sub-counties of three districts. However, because of this shift, it is likely that the number of children with MAM and SAM will gradually increase.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

In Karamoja, the lean season will likely be prolonged for an extra month (through early August) due to the delayed start of the agricultural season and mid-season rainfall disruptions, extending food consumption gaps. In August/September, the start of the harvest will increase food availability to levels higher than recent severe drought years and improve food consumption and income from crop sales for most households; however, improvements will be temporary as the harvest is expected to be below-average and household food stocks are therefore expected to only last for roughly 3 months with consumption smoothing. The increased access to food and income, in conjunction with slightly alleviated staple food prices, will support the reduction of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and an increase in area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) districts by September. Meanwhile, in areas worst impacted by the recent dry spells and previous droughts, such as Kotido, Moroto, and Kaabong, many poor households will likely consume a large portion of their harvests in green form or sell more of their own harvests than normal to pay debts incurred during the prolonged 2024 lean season and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist through September.As household food stocks exhaust and market dependence increases among poor households amid limited alternative sources of income in the post-harvest period, food insecurity is expected to deteriorate again as early as December. An increase in food consumption gaps and reliance on unsustainable coping strategies, such as accumulating debt to meet household needs, consuming seed for planting next season, and selling immature livestock will result in increased area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, with some households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) by January 2025.

Among refugees in settlements, moderate food consumption gaps are expected to be widespread due to below-average harvests and sustained limited low-wage income earning opportunities through January 2025. Though below average, the first season harvest is expected to support temporary increases in food consumption through July and August. Between September and November, food stocks will likely deplete and the number of refugees seeking agricultural and casual labor opportunities is expected to outpace available opportunities. High market dependence, compounded by seasonal market price increases, will slightly decrease access to food. While income from second season labor opportunities will partially mitigate food consumption gaps starting in October, this will be insufficient to benefit all refugees. Amid inadequate humanitarian assistance, households will resort to food-based coping strategies, including reduced meal frequency, limiting the quantity of food consumed per meal, and restricting meals to children, as well as negative livelihood coping strategies such as reducing non-food expenditures like school fees and medical care, or borrowing money, through November. Others may resort to severe livelihood coping strategies such as stealing food. In December/January, the combined benefits of increased access to second season harvests and associated income will likely partially mitigate consumption gaps, though continued limitations on cultivation are expected to prevent widespread improvement. Despite the slight seasonal fluctuations in access to food and income, at least 20 percent of households will likely continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in most refugee settlements through the entire projection period. In select southwest refugee settlements (Kyaka II, Rwamwanja, and Kyangwali), a larger portion of refugees have relatively better access to stable and sustainable income opportunities (including self-employment), financial access to leased land for cultivation, and benefit from lower market prices, though many are unable to meet their essential non-food needs. However, a significant population is still highly reliant on humanitarian assistance to prevent food consumption gaps and worse outcomes, and area-level Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist through January. 

Bimodal areas: In the greater north, food availability and access are expected to temporarily increase starting in July/August when the delayed harvests are anticipated to become available. However, the below-average harvests are expected to only partially replenish food stocks. Poor households in areas worst affected by the erratic and poor rainfall will likely rely heavily on their harvests for consumption and be unable to benefit from normal crop sales in the post-harvest period. As such, households will likely have below-average income from first season harvests and limited purchasing power. Households will likely rely on accessing low-wage casual labor, charcoal and firewood sales, or petty trade to supplement their incomes, but will likely still be unable to meet their essential non-food needs; Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are therefore expected to persist across the greater north through September. From October to January, households will benefit from income from second season labor opportunities and anticipated average second season harvests in December/January, supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. In most of central, eastern, and western bimodal Uganda, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to prevail through January 2025, supported by available household food stocks from the first and second season harvests.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Event: Poorly distributed and below-average rainfall for October to December 2024 second season

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Unfavorable rainfall levels and distribution would likely result in poor crop yields due to moisture stress and reduce agricultural labor opportunities. To cope, competition over natural resources (e.g., charcoal burning) and other off-farm labor opportunities could reduce household incomes. Below-average market surplus following the below-normal first season production would likely result in atypically high prices. At the same time, household food stocks from own-production would deplete atypically early, and overall staple food supplies to the deficit-producing areas, like Karamoja and northern Uganda, would be less than normal. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) populations in the greater north spreading into Teso Subregion would likely be higher than expected due to constrained food access. 

Sub-national area event in Karamoja subregion 

Event: Below-average and/or poor distribution of June to September rains

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Failure of the forecasted above-average rainfall during June to September in Karamoja would likely exacerbate the poor crop production outcomes, given that some localized areas have already experienced below-normal rainfall coupled with other structural constraints, including lack of inputs to cultivate sizeable acreage. Below-average cumulative rainfall would further reduce the expected harvest for a third or fourth consecutive season, likely leading to upward pressure on prices and constrained food access as households would earn less or no income from crop sales and exhaust food stocks atypically early. An increase in the number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and even Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes (5 percent or less) by the end of the projection period in January 2025 would be expected.

Sub-national area events in the refugee settlements

Event: Consecutive below-average second-season rainfall performance leading to below-average production

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If the 2024 second-season rains are below average and start late, agricultural wage labor opportunities would decrease. Given the inadequate food rations from WFP and limited income-earning opportunities to supplement general food assistance, food consumption gaps among vulnerable refugees would increase and more refugees would face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. 

Event: Higher than expected influx from refugees fleeing conflicts in DRC, Sudan, and South Sudan 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If conflicts in DRC, Sudan, and South Sudan escalate, a higher refugee influx will occur in Uganda. Most refugee settlements have already exceeded their holding capacity and humanitarian resources are stretched. A higher refugee number would also increase competition for labor and other income-generating opportunities. Given the inadequate food ration, more vulnerable refugee households will likely deteriorate from Stressed! (PC Phase 2!) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.