Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security in Karamoja

• Above-average November to January second season harvests have replenished market supplies and household food stocks, improving household food access. Staple food prices have declined seasonally and are stable nationwide. Poor households currently face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity, except in Karamoja, where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) persists due to large production deficits.  

• The March to May 2015 rains in both bimodal and unimodal areas will likely start on time with near-average cumulative rainfall. First season planting in bimodal and unimodal areas is expected to begin in March, although successive crop failure is likely to affect access to seeds for poor households in Karamoja. 

• The lean season in Karamoja is expected to start in early February, one month earlier than normal due to September to December main season production deficits.  Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected through June, but may worsen if the rains are not timely and adequate. In the rest of the country, food security is likely to remain stable at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in the coming six months. 

Current Situation

• Harvesting for second season crops completed early: In bimodal areas, the second season crops have been harvested from the fields. Minimal rains have fallen since December for most of the country enhancing crop drying. Staple crops, including beans, maize, millet, sorghum, and Irish potatoes had above average production. Early onset of rains in August enabled a slightly early completion of the season as farmers were able to sow earlier than normal. The dry conditions since December have allowed rapid drying and other postharvest activities. The above average production was released to the market earlier than expected. Postharvest activities such as threshing, cleaning, and storing will continue through mid-February.
• Atypically high ground surface temperatures are causing water and pasture resources in the cattle corridor districts to decline faster than usual. January and February are typically dry, however the two to seven degrees Celsius (C) above average temperatures in the southern part of central Uganda are causing atypical dryness since early January. The decline in grazing vegetation are most severe in Lwengo, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Lyantonde, and Rakai districts of the central and southern parts of the cattle corridor.
• Most staple prices have declined seasonally since early November and stabilized in January. Cooking bananas, sorghum, cassava chips, maize, and finger millet prices have generally been declining since the start of the harvest in early November with new supplies entering the market while old stocks remain from the first season harvest from June to August.
• Cereal exports to South Sudan are gradually increasing, but remain below pre-crisis levels. Regional exports to South Sudan began to increase unseasonably by 11 percent between the third and fourth quarters of 2014 though they are still below-average and below pre-crisis levels. The depreciation of the South Sudanese Pound, low demand for staples like maize and sorghum, and high business risks for Ugandan traders are still constraining the volume of exports to South Sudan.
• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity expected in bimodal areas. Above average second season production has refilled household and market food stocks. Food availability and access for the poor are favorable throughout the country due to the declining prices from the production surpluses. With the normal progress of seasonal activities supplying day labor, poor households that obtain their food mainly from the market have been able to meet their minimum food requirements.
• At least 40 percent of the population (totaling 465,587 persons) in Karamoja region are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 2014/15 production was at least 70 percent below average based on field-level estimates. Households have not replenished food stocks to normal levels. The households with the worst production, greater than 80 percent deficit and in some households total crop failure, started their lean season three to four months early, in October, and households with slightly better production will begin at least one month early, in the beginning of February. Coping strategies such as natural product harvesting and sales will likely not provide enough income to access food for adequate intake.

Assumptions

Between January and June 2015, the projected food security outcomes are based on the following key assumptions:

• Normal onset of rain, total rainfall, and seasonal activities are expected from March to July.
  • Temperatures are expected to return to normal with the onset of rains in March.
• Staples prices are likely to remain stable or decline further as harvesting and postharvest handling activities for the production from second season wrap up.
  • Household food stocks and market supplies have been replenished to normal post-harvest levels, with surplus, following the average to above-average second season harvests since December. They will be adequate for markets and households to maintain consumption through June.
  • The surplus food stocks and below average regional demand is expected to keep prices moderate.
  • Crop sales are expected to provide additional income for households to meet their non-food needs.
• Trade volumes to South Sudan will be below average, but higher than 2014.
  • Informal trade will continue to the calm areas of South Sudan.
  • Uganda will likely continue to supply large volumes of food to the region. Peak exports are typically from May to September, declining from October through December and then increasing again from January through March.
• Livelihood activities for the poor and very poor in bimodal areas are expected to remain normal throughout the scenario period. Normal seasonal revenues are expected in the bimodal areas.
  • The expected timely onset of rain in March will provide adequate agricultural labor opportunities for households.
• Pasture conditions will likely be average to below-average through February in the cattle corridor districts due to above-average ground surface temperatures.
  • Adequate pastures will be available from April through June, improving food diversity and incomes for households with milk-producing livestock.
  • Average to below-average livestock body conditions and reduced milk production are expected throughout the period.
  • Milk production in the bimodal areas are expected to increase with the resumption of rains.
• In the next four months the quarantine across the Karamoja region for Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is expected to end in concordance with control measures and no emergence of new cases.
  • Livestock trade is ongoing and will likely return to normal levels before the quarantine is lifted.
  • No major outbreaks of livestock diseases that would necessitate longer quarantine periods or the closure of livestock markets are anticipated.  
• Conditional cash and food transfers through the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF II) will continue through June. 

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

In bimodal areas, household food security will remain stable through June 2015. Most households will be able to meet both their food and non-food needs without engaging in coping strategies throughout the outlook period. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected through June 2015.

A well below average harvest in Karamoja region will start the lean season at least a month early. Populations in the Karamoja region will likely have insufficient income to meet all their household food and nonfood needs through market purchase, although staple prices will likely remain stable through June. Food security outcomes will likely be most acute during the peak of the lean season from April to June. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected with slightly increased malnutrition prevalence and increased food access constraints.

For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming six months. Learn more here.