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Below-average April rainfall slows crop growth in the East and Northeast

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Uganda
  • April - September 2014
Below-average April rainfall slows crop growth in the East and Northeast

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  • Key Messages
  • National overview
  • Areas of concern
  • Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.
  • Key Messages
    • Below-average rainfall since March has exacerbated dry conditions across the eastern part of the country. Continued below average rainfall would likely retard crop performance in the near term and reduce potential yields in both bimodal areas and in the unimodal region of Karamoja for June/July harvests.
    • Food security outcomes remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in bimodal areas. These areas are expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through at least September. However, as a result of early depletion of food stocks and high dependence on the market, the lean season started early in February instead of March in the unimodal region of Karamoja that will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) but only due to the presence of humanitarian assistance through July/August.
    • Prices of white sorghum, millet, and cassava chips have remained stable despite the below average harvests that followed the October to December 2013 second rainy season. Maize, beans, and cooking banana prices have risen since February. Prices of these commodities are expected to remain high until the next harvest arrives in June/July.

    National overview
    Current Situation

    Most bimodal areas have received near average to below average rainfall. While the onset of rains was timely, they continued with below average cumulative rainfall. Rainfall over the last 10 days has been deficit in the eastern and southwestern districts with the crop having attained 15-45 percent vegetative growth. Most bimodal areas are estimated to have received above 80 percent of normal precipitation while the central districts above the Lake Victoria basin stretching to the east have received 50-80 percent of the normal rainfall in a 30 day period (22nd March – 20th April). The total rainfall deficit is estimated between 25-75mm according to Climate Prediction Center's Africa Rainfall Estimate & Africa Rainfall Climatology (CPC RFE V2.0 & ARC). Substantive rainfall deficits of 50 to 100 mm are developing in the northeastern districts of Karamoja, which is between 20-80 percent of normal rainfall for the same period (Figure 1).

    Near normal seasonal activities are ongoing in bimodal areas. Most farmers by now have completed land preparation and planting activities. Planting and germination have progressed relatively normally even with below average rainfall since the start of the season in mid-March. In the next month it will be crucial to have sustained rainfall to ensure proper plant growth as the crops will reach the critical stages of flowering. Progressively dry weather conditions are likely causing the visible moisture stress for the unimodal Karamoja region as crops are beginning to show prematurely reduced growth.

    Average to above average seasonal recovery of vegetation and water resources in most bimodal and unimodal areas are providing resources for average livestock conditions. Continued rainfall shortfalls may negatively affect the pasture conditions and availability in the bimodal areas should they continue into May.

    Cassava chips, millet, and white sorghum maintained their seasonal trends in march, ensuring food security. While generally there are low to moderate supplies of staples owing to the average to below average harvests from October-December 2013, demand from both local and regional traders has not fully consumed the available supplies. A reduction in trade volume exported to South Sudan due to the conflict has moderated supply shortfall. Banana prices increased significantly by 37 and 13 percent in Mbarara and Kampala, respectively, which is attributed to supply shortfalls due to intense rains limiting road access to banana harvesting areas. Finger millet and cassava chip prices remained stable for the second consecutive month, while retail prices for white Sorghum declined slightly by 6.8 and 12.5 percent in Soroti and Gulu respectively when compared to February following the seasonal trend. Bean prices continued to increase following their seasonal trend, but at incremental prices of 11.3 and 7.3 percent in Kampala and Lira respectively compared to January prices but remained stable in Mbarara and Gulu. Bean supplies on the market have been lower than normal with the high demand from farmers purchasing bean seed for planting, high regional demand from Kenya and DRC traders, purchases for humanitarian endeavors like World Food Programmme (WFP) and the National Agriculture Advisory Programme. In March, maize prices were stable in Kampala but increased in Masindi by 12 percent compared to February prices, where there is high demand from Kenyan traders who purchase maize destined for the Kisumu, Nairobi and Nakuru markets. The low seasonal supplies and anticipated high demand have inspired other traders to purchase the commodity for speculative purposes. Price stability of substitute staples and the fairly seasonal price movements will enhance food access to the poor and urban households that partially or wholly depend on the market for food within the livelihoods they are currently pursuing.

    Accelerated arrival of South Sudan refugees into Northern Ugandan districts of Arua, Adjumani and Kiryandongo since the start of the conflict in South Sudan in mid-December, has brought over 96,000 refugees into Uganda, as of the April 7th. The prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) among South Sudanese refugees in Uganda is at critical levels. A March 2014 survey reports that the prevalence of GAM and severe acute malnutrition (SAM), defined according to weight-for-height Z scores <-2 and <-3, among children 6-59 months of age in these three districts are 19.6% (95% CI: 17.0 - 22.4) and 4.1% (95% CI: 3.0 - 5.7), respectively. Severe or borderline food consumption is reportedly experienced by two out of three households and the proportion of children under 5 suffering from malaria/fever, diarrhea, and ARI/cough in the two weeks prior to the survey is 69.9%, 50.9%, and 78.1%, respectively. Over half of mothers 15-49 years of age are underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2) with nearly one-third of them being severely underweight (<16.5 kg/m2). UNICEF and other government and non-government organizations have started nutritional feeding programs and establish a surveillance system to monitor the situation.

    Stable food security situation for bimodal areas. While second season harvests from November to January in most bimodal areas were below average, and current household food stocks are limited, the stable prices for staples coupled with casual labor opportunities for the poor households, and normal livelihoods activities pursued by households will enable food access, maintaining None (IPC Phase 1) in bimodal areas.

    Assumptions

    Between April and September 2014, the projected food security outcomes are based on the following key assumptions:

    • The below average first season rains from March to May in bimodal areas thus far will be compensated from April to June, making seasonal totals near normal.
    • Rain deficits in both bimodal and unimodal areas will not significantly impact the crop performance during the flowering and grain filling stages of growth thereby upholding the expectation for a modest, near-average harvest in June/July
    • Near average livestock conditions and milk production will be sustained in both bimodal and unimodal rainfall areas despite the below average rainfall in some areas.
    • High but stable prices in the near term for cassava chips, white sorghum, and finger millet but rapid price increases for cooking bananas, beans, and maize are expected through May. Declining stocks in both households and markets will cause additional price increases, beyond the typical seasonal rise before the harvest starts in June.
    • Trade: Trading activities within Uganda, and with neighboring countries are expected to follow seasonal trends with near normal levels of demand from nearby countries, including Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Rwanda. No policy interventions preventing the free movement of food commodities from surplus to deficit production areas are anticipated.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Below average rainfall is likely to interfere with normal crop performance and harvest levels expected in both bimodal unimodal Karamoja. While germination and planting activities may be complete, it is expected that insufficient moisture levels to maintain growth and strength through the vegetative crop stage and flowering may arise with uncompensated moisture deficits accumulated since the start of the season in mid-March/April. Harvest prospects are expected to be below average with the likelihood for suppressed rainfall in the coming months with unimodal Karamoja experiencing the most negative impacts than the bimodal areas

    No deviations from the typical seasonal labor opportunities of weeding and various on-farm seasonal activities like herding, milking, and mulching are expected. Slightly depressed livestock conditions and milk production are likely to occur if rainfall deficits continue. While no major shocks are expected to cause additional price increases, abrupt negative policy interventions, unusually high demand from neighboring countries, and bulk purchases for South Sudanese refugees could cause volatility in prices of maize, beans and other staples. Seasonal price increases are expected through May into June before the new harvest appears on the market to ease the food gaps experienced by poor households. With the exception of unimodal Karamoja, most areas of Uganda are expected to remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

    Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely to prevail in unimodal Karamoja with the longer than usual lean season. Should the prevailing dry conditions cause additional severe moisture stress, below normal crop performance would delay the arrival and quantity of the green harvest, limiting the amount available for consumption, thereby prolonging the lean season beyond July/August. Labor opportunities during weeding and harvests would likely be reduced in that case, impacting the household’s ability to access food from the market.
     


    Areas of concern

    Central Sorghum and Livestock livelihood zone in Karamoja

    This zone includes parts of Northern Nakapiripirit, Moroto, Kotido, Napak, and Kaabong Districts (Figure 2) with an estimated population of 824,104 persons. About 54 percent of the households are estimated to be in the poor wealth group.

    Current Situation

    The near-normal to slightly below-average agroclimatic conditions at present are due to an indecisive onset of rains, light to moderate showers with erratic timing and distribution, as well as the atypically dry season since January 2014. Total cumulative rainfall has been below-average to average.

    The rains have continued restoring vegetation conditions, which are currently average to above average. The standing hay coupled with light to moderate rains received since late March are enabling sprouting of pasture and forage for livestock. However, water storage in improved valley tanks and large ponds have not yet been filled by runoff water, further complementing information of a poor start to the season.

    Livestock continue to be in average conditions after the dry season. Because of the availability of dry pasture during the dry season, livestock movements were not too far from their normal traditional grazing areas and have already returned to grazing areas near their homesteads. Oxen will provide draught for ploughing, ensuring early planting and other labor opportunities for the poor as the normal seasonal progresses.

    Seasonal activities at this time like land preparations and planting are near normal. While rainfall is deficient, already planted crops are progressing normally, showing no signs of moisture deficits. Moderate soil moisture levels and low land surface temperatures (LST) are sustaining germination and the start of vegetative growth of crops like millet, sorghum, maize, and beans. Poor households are experiencing production constraints, as 82 percent of households lack seed to plant, 77 percent lack labor, and 79 percent lacking farm tools and machinery. (Preliminary results from February Food Assessment by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and partners, April 2014)

    Early depletion of food stocks from the previous season. Preliminary results from a joint assessment in February from government and development partners led by the FAO show that actual yields for the 2013 October-December harvests were between 20-40 percent of the expected harvest. The poor crop performance and subsequent harvest are attributed to the erratic rains, prolonged dry spell in the middle of the growing season, and heavy pest and disease infestation such as Honeydew, which affected the late planted sorghum. With an average harvest, stocks from own production usually last through March before any food assistance is needed. Household stocks from own production in 2013 were already depleted a month or more by March even with coping strategies of food consumption-stretching by supplementing with wild food harvest, and market purchase, reducing quantities consumed, or number of meals per day, the lean season began earlier than normal.

    Poor households are experiencing inadequate food consumption. As stocks from own production have depleted, households are surviving on food assistance, wild foods. Most consume one meal a day. Market purchases are the most important food source followed by food assistance, alcohol/beer residuals, and wild foods after the depletion of household food stocks. Currently, poor households have a higher percentage of their income spent on purchased foods, accounting for 56-72 percent of their expenditure compared to 30-36 percent in a normal year. Food consumption score in February showed 25 percent of the households had poor consumption while 23.3 percent of the households in the zone were at borderline food consumption. The Consolidated Approach for Reporting Indicators of Food Security (CARI) which is a summary indicator called the Food Security Index (FSI) also shows the food security status for this zone at 43.6 percent for the severely food insecure while 45.6 percent were moderately food insecure. Additional information is needed to determine whether the poor and borderline food consumption scores are due to acute factors rather than an indication of the underlying chronic food insecurity.

    The terms of trade livestock to sorghum are still favorable with the price of sorghum stable ranging from 650-1000 Ushs. Livestock price stability ensures favorable Terms of Trade (ToT) with respect to sorghum, enabling poor households to obtain 130-150kg of sorghum, lasting an average household two months, if they can afford to sell a goat or sheep.

    Humanitarian assistance through safety net programs like Food- or Cash-for-work (FFW/CFW) is ongoing since February, improving food assess for vulnerable households estimated to be about 40 percent for the whole of Karamoja. School feeding, though lower in meal frequency and caloric quantity than in other recent years, is providing one meal a day usually porridge at lunch time.

    Livelihoods are exhibiting no change, but a slight increase in reliance on natural product sales (firewood and charcoal production) and normal livestock sales are used to access food. No asset stripping is observed. Other strategies are slightly intensified by the households to obtain income or food, including additional household members engaging in agricultural labor activities, increased wild food gathering, and participation in CFW/FFW programs to obtain food assistance.

    Despite the pursuit of these strategies to increase incomes and food access during the current period, most poor households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!).

    Assumptions

    In addition to the national assumptions listed above, the most likely scenario in Central Sorghum and Livestock livelihood zone in Karamoja for April to September 2014 is based on the following additional assumptions:

    • The rain fall deficits from April will be moderately compensated in May and the cumulative total rains up to September are expected to be near normal. The dry break in May/June is expected to occur at a near-normal time and be of near-normal length.
    • Green consumption will be available as usual toward the end of July, alleviating the food gaps. Wild foods, especially those associated with the coming of rains, will continue to be available as normal
    • During the rainy season starting in early April, the price of firewood and charcoal will increase seasonally, but not dramatically as the supply decreases in the market as people divert time from firewood and charcoal production to agricultural labor.
    • Labor opportunities are available at seasonally normal levels and wages, either in-kind or cash, are similar or slightly more than recent years. Cash- and Food-for-Work programs are expected to continue at near-normal levels. School feeding is likely to continue near its current level, providing porridge for children once a day and not providing a second meal as was done in some recent years.
    • Livestock diseases will continue at their current endemic levels, but no additional widespread outbreaks of disease are expected among small or large ruminants. Periodic Newcastle’s disease outbreaks are likely among chickens. Livestock prices will remain near their current levels. A goat costs 60,000-90,000 Ushs depending on the market and will likely remain near this range, though livestock prices peak briefly in July in their normal seasonal pattern. Sorghum prices will rise at the start of the rainy season more than usual and stay high until the rains end during the period from April to July. This season brings increased demand and the deterioration of road conditions resulting in higher prices. The price increase will be more than usual, though not as high as 2012 (Sorghum ~900-1,100 Ushs).
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
    • Stable Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes during lean season and early July harvests are dependent on near-normal rainfall. Households have exhausted the 2013 harvest’s food stocks one to two months earlier than normal. Households have increased market purchases as their major food source. Though incomes will slightly increase through wage labor, livestock sale, and sale of natural products, they will not be enough to meet the food gaps. Poor households will continue to consume one meal a day and daily calorie intake will likely be below the daily requirement. Market purchases mainly comprise of the main staple sorghum and minimal amounts of other food groups.
    • Wild food gathering will continue through June, especially for vegetables. Other sources of food will be accessed through begging and market purchases funded by firewood and charcoal sales. All food and income sources will fall short of meeting food requirements for the poor households. Children’s nutritional status will likely deteriorate further as malnutrition levels were already serious in December 2013 at the time the harvest was concluding. Local brew and the "spent grain” will continue to be a food source for both adults and children. Milk will be available once the rains start for households that own lactating animals.
    • Casual labor opportunities will supplement incomes through June, though this is likely to be detrimental to their own production as time and energy must be split between earning money for current food purchase and household production for the next consumption season. Agricultural labor over the course of a normal year contributes 18-23 percent of total income of which 75 percent is obtained during April and May when land is prepared and weeding occurs. Family members and households will increase their participation in paid labor to enlarge the budget available for food purchase. This is likely to present an opportunity cost for their involvement in growing their own food.
    • Humanitarian food assistance will mitigate severe declines in the food security conditions before the arrival of green harvests in July. Favorable ToT for sorghum with respect to small ruminants or cattle are expected to enhance food access for households with enough livestock available to exchange for food. Should the rains be below average, the very poor and extremely vulnerable households would find the foregone incomes from the reduction in demand for agricultural labor, lower availability, and delayed timing of greens for consumption thereby further prolonging the lean season. This could increase pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes that exceed or equal the minimum 20 percent of the population. Otherwise food insecurity is projected to remain at Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) July to September.

    Western mixed crop farming livelihood zone in Karamoja

    This zone includes parts of western edge of the Karamoja region beginning with southwestern parts of Nakapiripirit, Napak, Abim and parts of Kotido and Kaabong Districts (Figure 2). It has an estimated population of 268,520 persons of which about 55 percent of the households are estimated to be in the poor wealth group.

    Current Situation

    Zone experiencing below average cumulative total rainfall. This accounts for 50-80 percent of the normal precipitation during the 30-day period beginning 21st March to 19th April. The rains that typically begin in March have been irregular and spotty. April sustained some rainfall deficits, with anomalies of 20-50 percent of normal rainfall (about 50-75mm less of normal) in the last 10-day period.

    While seasonal activities progress near normal, the zone has experienced rainfall deficits. Farmers are likely planting slightly late, otherwise land preparation and planting are still within normal seasonal timing for the remainder of the zone. Maize, ground nuts, sorghum, and simsim are among the crops being planted.

    Vegetation and pasture are slowly recovering, following the atypically long dry season. Both water and standing hay are encouraging regrowth sufficient to support livestock production. There are no livestock movements at the moment. Livestock are in average conditions, and livestock births and milk production for small ruminants are normal.

    As with other zones of Karamoja, over 80 percent of the households are citing lack of seed/planting materials as a constraint for production this season.

    Following the early start of the lean season caused by below average harvests in the 2013 production year, a slight increase in the number of households, compared to the number in a normal year, are engaged in agricultural labor to obtain incomes to purchase food. Usually this source contributes over 31 percent of income for the poor in a normal year.

    Households needing additional income for food purchase are increasing their firewood collection and charcoal production, resulting in an overall slight increase in natural product use.

    While this zone has the lowest proportion of households with livestock within the Karamoja region, from 10-50 percent of households averaging zero to three small livestock and one to two cattle per household, some households are still selling poultry or a small ruminant in order to purchase food.

    Female- and child-headed households account for 25-32 percent of the population and are most affected by food shortage as reported in the food security assessment report by FAO and partners (March 2014). Their vulnerability is increased from the population due to the lower number of coping strategies they can pursue. These households likely do not own any livestock like poultry to sell, are unlikely to send a household member for remittances, and are furthermore unable to offer labor in exchange for food.

    The ToT for sorghum with respect to small ruminants is 62-126 kgs, wages from agricultural activities and firewood collection 2.5-3 kgs per day, and bags of charcoal could purchase 15-32 kgs of sorghum - are favorable and stable, enabling poor households to access food.

    Since the first cycle of food distribution started in February, the FFW/CFW programme is ensuring timely access to food. Participants receive the assistance as needed and are expected to perform the community works later.

    Moderate food insecurity is prevailing. According to the CARI, the FSI in the food assessment preliminary result by FAO and partners, the food security status for this zone is reported at 63.2 percent moderately food insecure while 28.2 percent were marginally food insecure. Data from a recent survey shows a significant reduction in food consumption score within this zone, however results have not been verified and follow up is needed to identify acute food security stressors rather than chronic issues.

    The zone is facing one to two months of additional lean season. Typically the lean season lasts from April to June. Household food stocks, which contribute 27-42 percent of the food source in a typical year, are already depleted following below average harvest from the last season caused by a prolonged dry spell from May to June and water logging in low lying areas when rains resumed in July/August.

    Food is accessed mainly through market purchases followed by food assistance, agricultural labor incomes and some wild foods. Households are spending 56-66 percent of income on food purchase which is atypically high compared to 30-38 percent in a normal year. One meal per day is consumed, mostly composed of sorghum.

    No known livelihoods change has occurred. While incomes sources at this time are insufficient to meet food nor non-food items, households have increased their reliance on firewood/charcoal production which is atypically slightly increased. Other households also engaging in more labor activities which are slightly increased.
    The zone is currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2!).

    Assumptions

    The most likely scenario in Western Mixed Crop Farming livelihood zone in Karamoja for April to September 2014 is based on the following assumptions:

    • Near normal rains are expected, peaking seasonally at fairly normal times and to be near average in terms of cumulative total rainfall to sustain near normal crop performance.
    • Labor opportunities are available seasonally at near normal levels and wages, either in-kind or cash, are similar or slightly more than recent years.
    • The dry break in May/June is expected to occur at a near normal time and to be of near normal length.
    • Availability of green consumption at usual time will take place in June/July to begin alleviating the food gaps
    • Livestock diseases will continue at their current endemic levels, but no additional widespread outbreaks of disease are expected among small or large ruminants. Periodic Newcastle’s disease outbreaks are likely among chickens.
    • Cash- and Food-for-Work programs are expected to continue at near normal levels.
    • The ToT for sorghum with respect to small ruminants, agricultural wages, firewood and charcoal will remain near their current levels.
    • Prices of sorghum and other substitute foods from the market are not expected to rise more than usual although likely to stay high until the new harvests start to come in. The increase will be more than usual though not as high as 2012 (Sorghum ~900-1,100).
    • School feeding is likely to continue near its current level of only providing porridge for children once a day and not providing a second meal.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
    • Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) is prevailing through June but will likely ease to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) thereafter. April to June will be the height of the lean season. Households already have 1-2 months’ atypical early lean season with depleted stocks and engaging in coping strategies earlier than usual. Since zone is predominantly agricultural, a few households own livestock that can be sold. Households may sell chicken, engage in charcoal production and casual labor at slightly raised levels to supplement their incomes to enable them to access food. Daily food intake will likely reduce in both quantity and number of meals to one a day for the adults.
    • Continuation of near average rainfall will enable households to grow some quick maturing crops like vegetables and beans to supplement the market purchases. This predominantly agricultural zone will begin to consume some green harvest in June/July, which marks the beginning of the harvest season, through September, when households will be able to return to Minimal (IPC Phase 1).
    • Good road access to markets in Abim for both food supplies and charcoal sale will provide the households opportunity to exchange their products for food. The ToT are expected to be near normal conditions to enhance this access. Other supplementary incomes/food from humanitarian assistance through CFW/FFW programmes is likely to mitigate somewhat the food gap during this time until new harvests come in June/July.
    • Households will likely be involved in migratory labor in surrounding urban areas, engaged in more charcoal production/sales, and wild food collection will be expanded by households to increase access to food and income.
    • No livelihoods change is expected over either periods of the scenario.

     


    Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.

    Area

    Event

    Impact on food security outcomes

    Karamoja

    A break in WFP’s pipeline of food or funding, if food were to be diverted from supplying Karamoja to supplying South Sudanese refugees in northern Uganda or other parts of East and Central Africa.

    An increase in the food gap resulting in households having less quantities of food or missing meals during the lean season at could result in more serious nutrition outcomes. Food security would likely deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), especially among agropastoralists.

    Karamoja

    Significantly below average seasonal rainfall

     

    Low rainfall would reduce the length of the growing period and reduce harvest yield, especially for long-cycle sorghum, expected harvest in August/September/October. Poor households would likely miss on labor opportunities from which they earn income to buy food

    Karamoja

    The late start of green consumption as a result of an atypical dry spell or insufficient moisture

    A widened food gap as a result of a prolonged lean period would strain the households as a result of unavailability of green consumption and could result in asset stripping in order to purchase food thus eroding livelihoods.

    Karamoja

    If the long-cycle sorghum planted in March/April does not flower before the start of the temporary dry spell in June/July,

     

    This will provide opportunity for the honeydew disease and less opportunities to carry out on-farm labor in June. Loss of planted/harvested acreage by some households to the disease and an inability to replant would significantly affect yield. Others may plant fewer additional short-cycle crops (beans, maize, cowpeas, sunflower, etc.) but overall a poor crop performance would constrain food availability

    Karamoja

    A large-scale, contagious livestock disease outbreak

     

    The government would likely quarantine some areas. If livestock markets were to be closed for a significant period of time during the peak livestock sales period, households would suffer loss of an important source of income.

    Karamoja

    Unanticipated sorghum demand from other areas of the country or the region

     

    Sorghum prices would likely rise much higher than currently anticipated because of the current lower than average market supply. At higher sorghum prices, household food access would lean more heavily on substitutes for sorghum, and all staple food prices would be likely to rise, reducing food access despite mostly normal, seasonal incomes.

    Refugees arriving from South Sudan

    Lack of funding to humanitarian programs

    Humanitarian organizations would have to prioritize their assistance within the country. One solution, smaller food rations, would likely lead to use of additional household coping mechanisms in addition to the distress migration to Uganda that refugees have already done.

    National

    Unexpected, unplanned local or regional procurement of food assistance

    With tighter supplies than in other recent years, especially for maize, unusually large and unexpected purchases in markets could lead to increasing food prices and reduce the purchasing power of households whose staple foods have higher prices.

    National

    Below average first season rains during the crop development phase of the season                                          

    As crop production prospects become less favorable, price increases of affected crops are likely in some markets. Lost or delayed agricultural labor opportunities may also deprive some poor households of a necessary source of income at this time of year.

     

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Rainfall anomalies for the ten day period between 11th- 20th April (2nd dekad)

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Rainfall anomalies for the ten day period between 11th- 20th April (2nd dekad)

    Source: USGS

    Figure 2. Preliminary rezoned livelihoods in Karamoja Region

    Figure 3

    Figure 2. Preliminary rezoned livelihoods in Karamoja Region

    Source: Source: Government of Uganda, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United N…

    Figure 3. Rainfall in millimeters (mm) in Moroto District by 20 day period (dekad), 2014 and 2000 to 2012 mean

    Figure 4

    Figure 3. Rainfall in millimeters (mm) in Moroto District by 20 day period (dekad), 2014 and 2000 to 2012 mean

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Rainfall in millimeters (mm) in Abim District by 20 day period (dekad), 2014 and 2000 to 2012 mean

    Figure 5

    Figure 4. Rainfall in millimeters (mm) in Abim District by 20 day period (dekad), 2014 and 2000 to 2012 mean

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

    Figure 6

    Source:

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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