Key Message Update

The harvest in Karamoja is likely to be far below average

September 2015
2015-Q3-1-1-UG-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In bimodal areas, there was not steady rainfall from July through September, so land preparation and planting for the second season are later than normal. Also, pasture and water availability are lower than usual in the cattle corridor. However due to the ongoing El Niño, above-average cumulative rainfall is forecast for October to December, which should lead to overall normal crop development for the second season. However, some low-lying, flood-prone areas may have flash floods as the rains intensify. Bimodal areas are expected to remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through December.

  • In Karamoja, the harvest through December is likely to be very far below average. Many poor households may not have any crops at all to harvest, and without a harvest, their lean season will continue. Karamoja will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) though December though some households are already in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with little income to support food purchases. 

  • Incomes from sales of firewood, charcoal, grass, and poles are less than usual due to oversupply, as households sell more to buy food due to the slight increase in staple food prices. Currently, livestock-to-sorghum terms of trade are lower than average in Karamoja, but incomes from labor migration and livestock sales will seasonally increase by December. 

     

    For more detailed analysis, see the Uganda Food Security Outlook Update for August 2015.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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